Nuggets vs. Jazz Odds & Betting Predictions - December 31, 2024

📊 Projection: +4.3

We get it Jamal, you’re not a bum. As a fan and close follower of Jamal Murray I’ve been rooting for him ever since he tore his ACL around the same time as me. A few days ago even his coach said this has been his hottest 7-8 game stretch of the year, but his point has been proven. He has finally shut the critics up, and now it’s time for him to cool down… and here’s the stats behind it: He scored 34 last game and the last 9 times he scored 30+ it was followed by a 20 or less point game. He also went under in 7/9 vs Sexton, and after the Utah Jazz started the season as one of the worst defenses in NBA history… with the mastermind’s they have in the front office in Utah I can guarantee that script is in the process of flipping. The stats to prove it are the last 6 SG’s to play vs Utah scored 9, 27, 22, 18, 8 & 12. OH YEAH AND JAMAL HAS STAYED UNDER IN 8/10 GAMES WHILE ON THE ROAD IN UTAH

-14+ PAs in 12/13 Games w/o Aaron Gordon (13+ in all) avg 18.2 PAs -Utah ranks dead last in transition points allowed per game -> Braun leads Denver in transition points and frequency. -Braun went for 21 and 20 PAs in 2 games vs Utah earlier this season. He has 14+ PAs in 4 straight overall vs Utah -Braun has also covered in 12/15 Road Games this season avg 16.1 PAs

N. Jokic ⬆️ 8.5 Assists (-110 @ DraftKings) THE BOUNCE 📽️: 9.04 Assists 1. Elite Potential Assists: Jokic is still creating opportunities at a high level, averaging 15.8 potential assists per game over his last five, ranking 4th in the NBA during that span. His recent dud (2 assists) feels more like an outlier given this elite volume. 2. Favorable Matchup: Utah allows the 4th most assists per game in the league and has the 3rd worst effective field goal percentage defense (56.2%). This should increase the likelihood of Jokic’s potential assists converting into actual assists. 3. Pace of Play: Both Denver and Utah rank in the top 15 in pace, suggesting there will be plenty of possessions and opportunities for Jokic to rack up assists. 4. Scoring vs. Playmaking Balance: With Walker Kessler anchoring Utah’s interior defense, Jokic may focus more on facilitating for his teammates than dominating as a scorer. His ability to exploit mismatches and find open shooters and cutters makes him a threat to pile up assists. Despite his recent volatility, Jokic's consistent playmaking volume and the favorable matchup against a weak Utah defense make the over 8.5 assists a strong play. Look for Jokic to bounce back and capitalize on this high-assist environment.

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