Rays vs. Diamondbacks Odds & Betting Predictions - April 25, 2025

🔑 Rays ML +118 (FanDuel) 2u Rasmussen is back to his old self before he got hurt, looking like a stud. The stats are a young fun lineup, Burnes has gotten off to a rocky start and close to 70% of money in Dbacks but sharps coming in strong on Rays. I like this spot and value we get for TB

Has just 17 strikeouts through 21.1 innings this season, good for a 18.5% K% (the lowest it’s been in his career). His swinging strike rate is at 8.8%, also the lowest in his career (his career average is 14.3% for context). Velocity looks fine but for whatever reason, he’s just missing fewer bats this season and fooling fewer batters. Projections have him at 5.2 strikeouts over 6 innings so he’ll have a long leash, but the hope here is that his strikeout struggles continue. Matchup is a decent one for us too as the Rays rank just 18th in strikeout rate this season (21.6%).

Looks awesome so far. Even in a low-strikeout matchup on the road, still have Rasmussen projected at 5.00 strikeouts, putting his over odds at 55% for me.

Snake eyes

Rasmussen’s been lights out – 0.87 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 0 HRs allowed in 20.2 IP. Dominates weak contact, 2.00 GB/FB rate. Arizona offense beatable at home – D-backs 3-6 to the Over at Chase Field. Rays avg just 3.4 runs/game on the road, hitting .239 outside Tropicana. Burnes has struggled overall (4.64 ERA) but gets grounders (4.00 GB/FB) & can go deep – quality starts in 50% of outings. Rays offense sputtering – 2-6 last 8 games, 1-4 on the road. Arizona pen elite: 2.56 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 66.2 IP. Rays bullpen also solid: 3.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP. Key bats on both teams hit the ball on the ground – Díaz 58.5% GB%, Caminero 58.1%, Naylor 50.6%. Rally-killers. With both starters able to limit damage + elite pens, runs should stay scarce.

Small to +105