Phillies vs. Mets Odds & Betting Predictions - October 9, 2024

Phillies at Mets

9:08 pm • Fox Sports 1

Philadelphia Phillies

1-3

1 - 4

New York Mets

3-1

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Quintana			3.14	0-1
R.Suarez			0.00	0-0

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Phillies 1-3	-1.5	+1.5-205	o8-108	+102
Mets 3-1	u7.5	-1.5+172	u8-108	-121

Wednesday 9:08 p.m.

October 09, 2024

Citi FieldFlushing, Queens

NYM +120 (Live)

1.2u

Over 8-124

$1240.00

NYM -120

0.83u

Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice The Phillies' choice to start Ranger Suarez in Game 4 raises concerns due to his post-injury struggles. Suarez's ERA rose from 2.87 to 5.74, with declining velocity and command issues. The Mets’ lineup, especially Pete Alonso and Jose Iglesias, could exploit this. Meanwhile, Mets' Jose Quintana, despite a 3.75 ERA, has bullpen support, posing a challenge for the Phillies’ overworked bullpen.

PHI +102

#ProSystem Against the public after a win postseason Overall: 121-84-0,59% (ROI:21%) Season:0-1-0,0% (ROI:-100%)

Under 7.5+100

#ProSystem High scoring teams postseason Overall: 56-16-3,78% (ROI:48%) Season:3-1-0,75% (ROI:37%)

NYM -110

0.91u

@AnthonyDabbundo

Under 7.5+100

0.5u

Bet to -108

Under 4.5 (F5)-135

PHI +101

Trent

NYM -120

1.67u

PHI +107

Over 0.5 (1st Inn)+110

PHI +102

PHI +109

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-135

PHI -110

Risking 2 units of FP

PHI -109

Phillies ain’t dead yet

NYM -108

0.93u

Think the Mets close it out today. They have been the better hitting team overall this series but today it comes down to the pitching matchup for me. Suarez was great to start the year but after coming back from injury, he just wasn’t the same. The last 3 months of the season he had an ERA over 5 in every month and allowed 2+ ER in 4/5 starts in the last month of the season. He also has an ERA of 4.96 in day games this season. Opposite of him is Quintana who faced PHI 3 times this year and had an overall ERA of 2.81 against them. He has a day ERA of 3.20 and was the complete opposite of Suarez finishing the season strong with an ERA in September of 0.72 only allowing a total of 2 ER in 4 starts and didn’t allow a run in the one game he pitched in the MIL series

J.Iglesias o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-130

NYM -101

J.Quintana u15.5 Outs-148

If he pitches spectacularly again, I’ll wear the L - but the Mets will manage this game as if it’s game 5 to avoid the series turning back to Philly (and Wheeler). Lower leverage relievers used after Manaea’s gem - Diaz, Garrett, Butto all should be good to go. And Peterson + Senga (maybe) as well.

NYM +100

0.25u

Small to +100 to close it out at home. Would bet 0.5u if you don't have a series ticket from before G1

R.Suarez u3.5 Ks-115

0.11u

R.Suarez u12.5 Outs+100

0.1u

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See more MLB Coverage

The Mets are 31-24 (.564) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season -- 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .442.

Pete Alonso is batting just .145 on breaking pitches from LHP since last season -- worst in MLB-- 0 Percentile. Opponents are hitting just .174 (35-for-201) on Ranger Suarez breaking pitches since last season -- tied for 10th best among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP-- 92nd Percentile.

Kyle Schwarber struck out in 30% of PA's in the 2022 season -- fourth highest in MLB-- third Percentile. Edwin Diaz had a strikeout rate of 50% in the 2022 season -- highest among qualified RPs-- 100th Percentile.

Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 59% (1,306/2,224) against right-handed batters this season -- lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% -- first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (248/422) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since the 2022 season -- 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 45% -- 97th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mets are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Mets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 42 of Mets' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30
Phillies	75-87	39-42	36-45	64-66	10-21

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29
Phillies	78-76-8	36-40-5	42-36-3	56-68-6	22-7-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	7-6	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35
Phillies	1-3	54-27	41-40	82-48	12-19

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Oct 8th	PHI	W 7-2	+1.5 W	O 7	NYM -106
Oct 6th	@PHI	L 6-7	+1.5 W	O 8.5	PHI +120
Oct 5th	@PHI	W 6-2	+1.5 W	O 7	NYM +155
Oct 3rd	@MIL	W 4-2	+1.5 W	U 7.5	NYM +105
Oct 2nd	@MIL	L 3-5	+1.5 L	O 7.5	MIL +112

Frankie Montas
P
Montas is out with back
Out
Sean Manaea
P
Manaea is out with oblique
Out
Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with knee
Out
Jose Siri
OF
Siri is out with leg
Out
Jeff McNeil
IF
McNeil is out with oblique
Out
Nick Madrigal
IF
Madrigal is out with shoulder
Out
Francisco Alvarez
C
Alvarez is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Brandon Marsh
OF
Marsh is out with hamstring
Out
Ranger Suarez
P
Suarez is out with back
Out
Weston Wilson
OF
Wilson is out with oblique
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LR.Suarez, P	97	4.1	8	0
RJ.Hoffman, P	28	1	1	3
RC.Estevez, P	11	0.2	1	1
RO.Kerkering, P	18	1	2	0
LM.Strahm, P	10	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R
1K.Schwarber, DH	0-4	0
2T.Turner, SS	0-4	0
3B.Harper, 1B	1-3	1
4N.Castellanos, RF	2-4	0
5A.Bohm, 3B	0-3	0
6J.Realmuto, C	0-2	0
7B.Stott, 2B	0-3	0
8W.Wilson, LF	0-3	0
8K.Clemens, PH	0-1	0
9B.Marsh, CF	1-4	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K
LJ.Quintana, P	90	5	6
RR.Garrett, P	18	0.2	2
LD.Peterson, P	23	2.1	1
RE.Diaz, P	23	1	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Lindor, SS	2-5	1	1	4
2M.Vientos, 3B	2-4	0	0	0
2H.Bader, CF	0-0	0	0	0
3B.Nimmo, LF	0-3	0	0	0
4P.Alonso, 1B	2-3	0	0	0
5J.Iglesias, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
5J.Iglesias, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
6J.Martinez, DH	1-4	0	0	0
7S.Marte, RF	0-2	1	0	0
7L.Acuna, 2B	0-0	0	0	0
8T.Taylor, CF	1-3	1	0	0
8T.Taylor, RF	1-3	1	0	0
9F.Alvarez, C	0-4	1	0	0