The New York Mets have an opportunity to eliminate the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 4 of the NLDS on Wednesday night at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 5:08 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FS1 — other viewing options include MLB.TV, Sling TV and Fubo.
According to BetMGM, Phillies vs Mets odds have the Mets as -125 moneyline favorites and Phillies as +105 underdogs. The over/under is 7.5 (-115o / -105u). The Phillies are +165 to cover their run line (-1.5) and the Mets are -200 (+1.5).
Will the Mets book their ticket to the NLCS on Wednesday, or will the Phillies force a deciding game? My Phillies vs Mets prediction and picks for Game 4 are below.
My Phillies vs Mets Predictions for Game 4
- Phillies vs Mets picks: Phillies Moneyline (+105 | Play to -120)
My Mets vs Phillies best bet for Game 4 is on the Phillies moneyline, where I see value at -115. The best line is available at BetMGM, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Odds, Predictions
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+100 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +165 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-120 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -200 |
- Phillies vs Mets Moneyline: Phillies +105, Mets -125
- Phillies vs Mets Over/Under: 7.5 total runs (-120o / +100u)
- Phillies vs Mets Run Line: Phillies +1.5 (-205), Mets -1.5 (+170)
Game 4 Probable Pitchers for Phillies vs Mets
| LHP Ranger Suarez (PHI) | Stat | LHP Jose Quintana (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-8 | W-L | 10-10 |
| 3.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 3.46/3.59 | ERA /xERA | 3.75/4.49 |
| 3.37/3.26 | FIP / xFIP | 4.56/4.44 |
| 1.20 | WHIP | 1.25 |
| 16.6% | K-BB% | 17.4% |
| 51.9% | GB% | 47.4% |
| 82 | Stuff+ | 83 |
| 103 | Location+ | 97 |
Phillies vs Mets Previews, Predictions, Starting Lineups
Phillies Betting Preview
Phillies Game 4 Lineup
- Kyle Schwarber (DH)
- Trea Turner (SS)
- Bryce Harper (1B)
- Nick Castellanos (RF)
- Alec Bohm (3B)
- JT Realmuto (C)
- Bryson Stott (2B)
- Weston Wilson (LF)
- Brandon Marsh (CF)
Suarez has had a bad ending to the season as his xFIP was well above 4.00 for the month of September. He faced the Mets in his second-to-last start of the season and gave up five hits, two runs and three walks over five innings.
Suarez is a difficult pitcher to prepare for because he has a ton of different pitches in his arsenal and throws each of them in a specific part of the zone. As you can see below, he utilizes the run on his sinker to throw inside to righties, throws his fastball away, then throws his changeup and curveball in different parts of the bottom of the zone.
(Image via Baseball Savant)
Overall, Suarez has a 3.59 xERA and a 3.26 xFIP. Also, all four of the pitches listed above are allowing under a .300 xwOBA. He actually has pretty good numbers when facing a lineup for the third time this season (2.93 xFIP), but this is an elimination game, so we will see what Rob Thomson decides to do.
The Phillies bullpen hasn't been good during the postseason, but can't continue to be this bad game after game. The Phillies had the fifth-best xFIP in baseball this season and fourth-best K-BB ratio.
The offense is going to face another lefty after struggling against Manaea, but this should be a much more favorable matchup because Quintana doesn't have nearly the stuff Manaea does. Plus, they have been really good against left-handed pitching this season with a 118 wRC+, the third-best mark in baseball.
Mets Betting Preview
Mets Game 4 Lineup
- Francisco Lindor (SS)
- Mark Vientos (3B)
- Brandon Nimmo (LF)
- Pete Alonso (1B)
- Jose Iglesias (2B)
- JD Martinez (DH)
- Starling Marte (RF)
- Tyrone Taylor (CF)
- Francisco Alvarez (C)
Quintana has been lights out since the start of September. In his past five starts, he has allowed a total of two earned runs, with one of those starts coming against the Phillies. In that outing, he shut them out over seven innings.
For most of the season, Quintana has struggled with his command and hasn't been able to generate a high number of whiffs. In September, he had his highest strikeout rate and lowest walk rate, which is why he put up such great numbers. However, at this stage of his career, he has below-average stuff.
Overall for the season, Quintana has an 83 Stuff+ rating with his fastball and sinker averaging under 91 mph. The Phillies are second in baseball against left-handed sinkers and fastballs, so it's going to be a tough matchup for Quintana.
Also, how long of a leash will Quintana get in this game? He was allowed to work through the order for a third time against the Brewers despite the matchup not being great, but with Manaea being able to pitch into the eighth inning, the Mets bullpen is fully rested, which means Quintana may not last very long in this game.
The Mets bullpen has been hit or miss throughout the playoffs and down the stretch of the regular season they had some real problems with their command. Over the last 30 days of the regular season, they had the second-worst Location+ rating and were also bottom 10 in walk rate. Those control issues played a big part in Game 2 of this series, when the Mets gave up four runs in the eighth and ninth innings to lose the game.
Phillies vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
It's now or never for the Phillies and I think they have a pretty big starting pitching edge in Game 4.
Sure, if we are going by how each starter pitched down the stretch, then this would be a pretty even game, but Suarez is clearly the better pitcher over a large sample size.
The Phillies offense should have a much better matchup against Quintana than they did against Manaea. Not only are they the second-best team in baseball against sinkers and fastballs, but against those two pitches, when they are 91 mph or slower, the Phillies have a .406 xwOBA and 25 barrels, the most in baseball.
The Phillies bullpen has blown up in three straight games in this series, which is very uncharacteristic and something I don't think will continue. Sure, the Mets offense is on fire, but a top-five bullpen will eventually figure it out.
I think the Phillies are a little undervalued in Game 4 because of that starting pitching edge. I have Philadelphia projected at -132, so I like the value on them at -115.
Pick: Phillies -115 via BetMGM
Moneyline
I'm betting the Phillies moneyline at -115 in NLDS Game 4.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline
Run Line (Spread)
I'm going to pass on the Phillies vs. Mets run line.
Pick: Pass
Over/Under
I'm not betting the Phillies vs. Mets over/under.
Pick: Pass
Phillies Trends
- Phillies are 36-45 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Phillies' last 5 games
Mets Trends
- The Mets are 31-24 (.564) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .442
- Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 59% (1,306/2,224) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile
- The totals have gone OVER in 42 of Mets' 81 last games at home
Phillies vs Mets Game 4 Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Citi Field in Queens, N.Y. |
| Date: | Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024 |
| Time: | 5:08 p.m. ET |
| TV Channel/Live Streaming: | FS1; MLB.TV; Fubo; Sling TV |
