Mets vs. Brewers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 1, 2024

Mets at Brewers

9:32 pm • ESPN

New York Mets

2-1

8 - 4

Milwaukee Brewers

1-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
F.Peralta			5.40	0-0
L.Severino			3.24	1-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 2-1	+1.5	+1.5-180	o7.5-102	+124
Brewers 1-2	u7.5	-1.5+150	u7.5-119	-148

Tuesday 9:32 p.m.

October 01, 2024

American Family FieldMilwaukee

MIL -120 (Live)

1.8u

NYM -120 (Live)

NYM +124 (Live)

2.48u

Bobbyfades

Over 7.5 (Live)-105

0.95u

Bobbyfades

MIL -1.5+150

🔑 Brewers -1.5 +150 (DraftKings) 3u No more messing around. 3u 🔨 time. Mets just played a double header and immediately had to travel to Milwaukee. The wheels are starting to fall off for Sevy and Peralta is a beast. Their offense has come alive too. Big money and sharp money on the brew crew. We get it ALL back and more here

NYM +125

1.25u

#ProSystem Fade the public in playoffs Overall: 160-123-0,57% (ROI:25%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%)

Under 7.5-115

Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Freddy Peralta's strong form (2.35 ERA last 3 starts) and dominance over the Mets (1 ER in 12 IP) combined with Milwaukee's elite bullpen (3.36 ERA) point to a low-scoring game. Severino’s struggles vs. Milwaukee (6 R in last start) are offset by their recent offensive slump. Under is 7-2-1 in last 10 matchups and 8-2 in Milwaukee’s playoff games. Expect limited runs.

Over 7.5-102

0.49u

Over 3.5 (F5)-138

0.36u

Under 7.5-120

@Zerillo

M.Vientos o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+112

1.12u

NYM +124

$1240.00

Under 7.5-115

Under 7.5-118

1.18u

Sura

Under 7.5-118

1.18u

NYM +120

1.8u

G.Mitchell To Record 1+ Stolen Bases Yes+320

0.05u

J.Chourio To Record 1+ Stolen Bases Yes+290

0.05u

W.Adames To Record 1+ Stolen Bases Yes+650

0.05u

W.Contreras To Record 1+ Stolen Bases Yes+1400

0.05u

J.Ortiz To Record 1+ Stolen Bases Yes+600

0.05u

B.Turang To Record 1+ Stolen Bases Yes+174

0.05u

Under 3.5 (F5)+110

Under 7.5-120

1.2u

Sandy

NYM +120

1.2u

Avery

Under 7.5-120

1.2u

Under 7.5-115

#ProSystem High scoring teams postseason Overall: 70-24-4,74% (ROI:43%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%)

L.Severino u16.5 Outs-125

BetMGM

F.Lindor o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-120

Under 7.5-115

0.58u

Bet to -116

Over 7.5-105

Over 3.5 (F5)-135

0.74u

#ProSystem Overs with wind postseason (F5) Overall: 153-85-7,64% (ROI:26%)

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The Mets are 74-21 (.779) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .723.

Rhys Hoskins has struck out in 29% of PA's this season -- tied for sixth highest in MLB-- sixth Percentile. Reed Garrett has a strikeout rate of 34% this season -- tied for 11th highest among qualified RPs-- 95th Percentile.

29% of Brice Turang strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- 15th highest in MLB-- 89th Percentile. 45% of Luis Severino's strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- sixth highest among qualified SPs-- 91st Percentile.

Luis Severino has a strikeout rate of just 19% (53 SO in 277 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season -- tied for 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% -- 17th Percentile.

Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 58% (596/1,019) in two strike counts this season -- 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% -- fifth Percentile.

Luis Severino has thrown inside pitches 40% of the time (800/2,025) in non-two strike counts this season -- 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% -- 96th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Brewers are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Brewers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Brewers' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	87-75	44-37	43-38	43-48	43-26
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Brewers	81-70-11	40-33-8	41-37-3	41-43-7	40-25-4
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	1-2	47-34	46-35	54-37	38-31
Mets	7-6	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 29th	NYM	L 0-5	+1.5 L	U 8	NYM +120
Sep 28th	NYM	W 6-0	+1.5 W	U 8.5	MIL -115
Sep 28th	NYM	W 8-4	+1.5 W	O 7.5	MIL -103
Sep 26th	@PIT	W 5-2	-1.5 W	U 7.5	MIL -120
Sep 25th	@PIT	L 1-2	-1.5 L	U 8	PIT -159

Brandon Woodruff
P
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Blake Perkins
OF
Perkins is out with leg
Out
Tobias Myers
P
Myers is out with oblique
Out
Aaron Ashby
P
Ashby is out with oblique
Out
Robert Gasser
P
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

Frankie Montas
P
Montas is out with back
Out
Sean Manaea
P
Manaea is out with oblique
Out
Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with knee
Out
Jose Siri
OF
Siri is out with leg
Out
Jeff McNeil
IF
McNeil is out with oblique
Out
Nick Madrigal
IF
Madrigal is out with shoulder
Out
Francisco Alvarez
C
Alvarez is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Severino, P	105	6	3	4
RJ.Butto, P	25	2	3	0
RR.Stanek, P	14	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1F.Lindor, SS	0-4	1	0
2J.Iglesias, 2B	1-5	1	1
2J.Iglesias, 3B	1-5	1	1
3B.Nimmo, LF	1-5	1	0
4M.Vientos, 3B	2-4	2	2
4L.Acuna, 2B	0-0	0	0
5P.Alonso, 1B	0-1	1	0
6J.Winker, DH	1-2	1	2
6J.Martinez, PH	1-2	0	2
6J.Martinez, DH	1-2	0	2
7S.Marte, RF	0-2	0	1
7H.Bader, CF	0-0	0	0
8T.Taylor, CF	1-4	1	0
8T.Taylor, RF	1-4	1	0
9F.Alvarez, C	0-4	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RF.Peralta, P	68	4	5	3
RJ.Payamps, P	14	0.2	0	3
LA.Ashby, P	18	0	0	2
RN.Mears, P	12	1.1	1	0
RA.Civale, P	35	3	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1B.Turang, 2B	3-5	2	0
2J.Chourio, LF	2-4	1	1
3W.Contreras, C	1-4	0	2
4G.Mitchell, CF	0-3	0	0
5W.Adames, SS	0-3	0	0
6J.Bauers, DH	1-4	0	0
7R.Hoskins, 1B	0-3	0	1
8S.Frelick, RF	1-4	1	0
9J.Ortiz, 3B	0-4	0	0