Blue Jays vs. Pirates Odds & Betting Predictions - May 5, 2023

Blue Jays at Pirates

10:35 pm • SportsNet PT

Toronto Blue Jays

29-30

4 - 0

Pittsburgh Pirates

31-28

pitcher		team	era	w-l
R.Hill			4.76	7-10
C.Bassitt			3.60	16-8

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Blue Jays 29-30	N/A	N/A	N/A
Pirates 31-28	N/A	N/A	N/A

Friday 10:35 p.m.

May 05, 2023

PNC ParkPittsburgh

M.Chapman o0.5 RBI+145

0.35u

Bet365 5:28.

PIT +145

0.5u

Bet to +140

PIT +135

1.1u

Over 4.5 (F5)-134

1.34u

Both pitchers all estimators > 4.50 - both offenses > 100 wRC+ Hm/Rd/v L/RHP - both defenses slightly negative Runs Prevented

V.Guerrero Jr. o0.5 RBI+165

0.83u

Bet365 2:17

V.Guerrero Jr. o1.5 RBI+550

0.1u

Bet365 2:17

M.Chapman o1.5 Total Bases+130

0.45u

Bet365

M.Chapman o0.5 HR+425

0.1u

TOR -140

$1.00

Over 9-109

0.55u

Under 9-110

PIT +1.5-130

TOR -145

1.38u

TOR -140

0.71u

Bet365 12:16.

Over-120

Toronto Blue Jays at Pittsburgh Pirates

$55.00

The Blue Jays might do this alone and then add Bassitt to the mix and it’s a real solid spot for an over

PIT +130

Hill 4.62 SIERA/4.61 xERA, Bassitt doesn't have an estimator below five - PIT 103 wRC+ Hm/106 v RHP, TOR 104/107 - Def separated by 1 Run Prevented - TOR pen estimators less than 1/4 run lower than PIT L30 days - Why is TOR a significant road fav here?

Over 8.5-110

1.1u

Project 9.5; each team sub 21% K rate against R/L split. Both Jays and Bucs 106 wRC+ or better v R and L respectively. Jays pen leaky per FIP

Our Staff's Best Bets From Friday's MLB Slate
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May 5, 2023 UTC
Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Friday MLB Betting Card
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The Blue Jays are 7-8 (.467) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season -- 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .262.

The Blue Jays are just 2-11 (.154) when allowing 5 or more runs this season -- 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.

Ke'Bryan Hayes is slugging just .346 since last season -- seventh worst in MLB-- fifth Percentile. Chris Bassitt has allowed a SLG of just .310 vs right-handed batters since last season -- tied for sixth best among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP-- 96th Percentile.

Matt Chapman is slugging .614 this season -- fourth best in MLB-- 98th Percentile. Rich Hill has allowed a SLG of .570 vs right-handed batters this season -- fourth worst among qualified SPs-- fourth Percentile.

Chris Bassitt has walked 6 of 25 left-handed batters (24%) -- tied for highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% -- fourth Percentile.

Chris Bassitt has allowed a just .246 SLG vs right-handed batters (sixth best)-- 94th Percentile and .615 vs left-handed batters this season (fourth worst among qualified SPs)-- sixth Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Pirates are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Pirates are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Pirates are 15-12 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Pirates' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 21 of Pirates' 32 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Pirates	30-29	15-17	15-12	17-17	12-12
Blue Jays	28-31	15-15	13-16	16-19	11-12

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Pirates	32-25-2	21-11	11-14-2	22-12	9-13-2
Blue Jays	27-29-3	15-14-1	12-15-2	17-16-2	9-13-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Pirates	31-28	17-15	14-13	20-14	10-14
Blue Jays	29-30	17-13	12-17	19-16	9-14

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 4th	@TB	L 2-3	-	-	-
May 3rd	@TB	L 1-8	-	-	-
May 2nd	@TB	L 1-4	-	-	-
Apr 30th	@WSH	L 2-7	-	-	-
Apr 29th	@WSH	W 16-1	-	-	-

Jose Berrios
SP
Berrios is out with elbow
Out
Anthony Santander
RF
Santander is out with shoulder
Out
Shane Bieber
SP
Bieber is out with elbow
Out
Bowden Francis
SP
Francis is out with shoulder
Out
Addison Barger
RF
Addison Barger (elbow) scratched Sunday.
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K
RC.Bassitt, P	105	7	5
RE.Swanson, P	11	1	1
RJ.Romano, P	9	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1G.Springer, RF	1-5	1	1	2
2B.Bichette, SS	1-4	1	0	0
3V.Guerrero, 1B	1-4	0	0	1
4M.Chapman, 3B	1-3	0	0	0
5A.Kirk, DH	1-3	0	0	0
5N.Lukes, PR	0-0	0	0	0
5N.Lukes, DH	0-0	0	0	0
6W.Merrifield, LF	2-4	1	0	0
7D.Varsho, CF	1-3	0	0	1
8D.Jansen, C	0-4	0	0	0
9S.Espinal, 2B	0-3	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LR.Hill, P	89	5.1	5	4
RD.Moreta, P	23	1.2	3	0
RC. De Jong, P	21	1	0	0
RD.Bednar, P	14	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Bae, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
1J.Delay, C	0-0	0	0	0
2B.Reynolds, LF	1-4	0	0	0
3C.Santana, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
4J.Suwinski, CF	0-4	0	0	0
5M.Andujar, RF	0-4	0	0	0
6R.Castro, 3B	1-2	0	0	0
6R.Castro, 2B	1-2	0	0	0
7T.Marcano, SS	1-2	0	0	0
8M. Mathias, DH	0-3	0	0	0
9A.Hedges, C	1-2	0	0	0
9C.Joe, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9K.Hayes, 3B	0-0	0	0	0