Pirates vs. Rays Odds & Betting Predictions - May 4, 2023

Pirates at Rays

5:10 pm • BSSUN

Pittsburgh Pirates

31-28

2 - 3

Tampa Bay Rays

35-20

pitcher		team	era	w-l
Z.Eflin			3.50	16-8
V.Velasquez			3.86	4-4

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Pirates 31-28	N/A	N/A	N/A
Rays 35-20	N/A	N/A	N/A

Thursday 5:10 p.m.

May 04, 2023

Tropicana FieldSt. Petersburg

PIT +170 (F5)

0.25u

PIT +180

0.25u

TB -1.5+105

TB o4.5-110

1.1u

While Velasquez should get some punchouts, Rays should still score some runs - 3.06 ERA, but 3.79 FIP best estimator - Rays 148/143/164 wRC+ Hm/v RHP/L7 days - PIT def -1 Run Prevented - PIT pen middle of the league (estimators avg 4.00 L30 days)

V.Velasquez o5.5 Ks+135

At least 5 & 25 BF each of L4 starts (increased slider usage) - 28 K% (13.4 SwStr%) over this span - TB 22.8 K% v RHP, 5 in today's LU > 25% v RHP since last year

Over 8-119

Under 8.5-110

PIT +172

0.5u

PIT +155

1.1u

Over 7.5-115

1.1u

Project 8.9; low strikeout rate for these lineups v right hand pitching. Each lineup >> 108 wRC+ v righties.

Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Thursday MLB Betting Card
Sean Zerillo•
May 4, 2023 UTC

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The Rays are 3-6 (.333) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season -- tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .141.

The Rays are 3-2 (.600) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season -- tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .404.

The Pirates are just 39-60 (.394) on the road since last season -- 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .469.

The Pirates are 12-9 (.571) when underdogs this season -- tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .393.

Yandy Diaz is batting .350 on breaking pitches this season -- seventh best in MLB-- 95th Percentile. Vince Velasquez has thrown his slider 42% of the time this season -- fifth highest among qualified SPs-- 94th Percentile.

Wander Franco is slugging just .182 on breaking pitches from RHP this season -- eighth worst in MLB-- ninth Percentile. Vince Velasquez has thrown his slider 42% of the time this season -- fifth highest among qualified SPs-- 94th Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph'>Hard-Hit Rate of just 22% (9/41) against Vince Velasquez vs left-handed batters this season -- best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of 41% (59/144) against Zach Eflin this season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 29% -- 100th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Rays are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Rays are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Rays are 14-15 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Rays' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 12 of Rays' 26 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rays	33-22	19-7	14-15	20-13	13-9
Pirates	30-29	15-17	15-12	17-17	12-12

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Rays	28-25-2	12-13-1	16-12-1	18-13-2	10-12
Pirates	32-25-2	21-11	11-14-2	22-12	9-13-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rays	35-20	20-6	15-14	22-11	13-9
Pirates	31-28	17-15	14-13	20-14	10-14

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 3rd	PIT	W 8-1	-	-	-
May 2nd	PIT	W 4-1	-	-	-
Apr 30th	@CWS	L 9-12	-	-	-
Apr 29th	@CWS	W 12-3	-	-	-
Apr 28th	@CWS	W 3-2	-	-	-

Gavin Lux
LF
Lux is out with shoulder
Out
Michael Grove
RP
Grove is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RV.Velasquez, P	54	3	2	1
LJ.Hernandez, P	21	1	1	1
RD. Underwood, P	32	2	1	0
RC.Holderman, P	9	1	3	0
RR.Stephenson, P	16	1	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1T.Marcano, SS	0-3	1	0
2B.Reynolds, LF	1-4	1	0
3A.McCutchen, DH	0-4	0	0
4C.Santana, 1B	2-4	0	2
4M.Andujar, PR	0-0	0	0
5J.Suwinski, CF	0-3	0	0
6C.Joe, RF	0-4	0	0
7K.Hayes, 3B	1-3	0	0
8J.Bae, 2B	0-3	0	0
9J.Delay, C	0-2	0	0
9R.Castro, PH	0-1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K
RZ.Eflin, P	80	7	10
RR.Thompson, P	8	1	0
RJ.Adam, P	25	1	3

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1Y.Diaz, 1B	2-4	1	1	1
2W. Franco, SS	0-3	0	0	0
3R.Arozarena, LF	1-3	1	1	1
4J.Lowe, DH	0-2	0	0	0
5I.Paredes, 3B	1-3	0	0	0
6T.Walls, 2B	1-3	1	1	1
7L.Raley, RF	0-3	0	0	0
8C.Bethancourt, C	0-3	0	0	0
9M.Margot, CF	0-2	0	0	0