NFL Week 2 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

Week 1 in the NFL was all about unders and road teams, with both going 12-4 to open the season.

Let's look at this week's slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to Week 2 of Action Network's NFL betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, September. 17, 11 a.m. ET.

Against The Grain

Unders & Road Teams Rule

The story in the NFL entering Week 2 from a betting perspective are unders and road teams: Totals were 12-4 to the under and road teams were 12-4 against the spread in the opening week.

• Week 1 was the best opening week for unders since 2006, per Bet Labs. Unders are now 23-9 in Week 1 over the past two seasons.
• This marked the first time since 2006 there have been at least 12 road covers in Week 1. The 10 straight-up road wins in Week 1 is the third-most for an opening week in NFL history (12 in 1983, 11 in 2006).

The Big Fade

Nobody Betting Cardinals

In Week 1, the Cardinals (+7) received just 22% of the betting tickets in Washington and ended up covering the spread in a 20-16 loss.

In Week 2, the Cardinals (+4) are receiving just 19% of the tickets at home against the Giants. Arizona would become the first team to cover the spread in Week 1 and receive 20% of tickets or less in Week 2 since the Vikings in 2014.

Not only that, Arizona would be the first team since also 2014 to receive 25% of tickets or less in Week 2, facing a team off a 20+ point Week 1 loss (Giants lost 40-0 to Dallas in Week 1) — the other was the Jets in 2014.

Change of Fortune

AFC East Upside Down

Let's start with the Jets. After Aaron Rodgers went down with a torn achilles, which will sideline him for the rest of the season. New York moved from 18-1 to 50-1 to win the Super Bowl with their division odds shifting from +250 to +500. Enter Zach Wilson. The Jets have struggled mightily through the years when they are forced to go to a backup quarterback. They are 3-24 SU, 10-17 ATS over the last decade when starting a backup quarterback.

Despite the Win, the Jets Without Aaron Rodgers Are Still Worse Than You ThinkRead now

Now the fortune. Miami is the division favorite after Rodgers' injury. The Dolphins haven't been a preseason favorite to win AFC East since 2003 and they haven’t been favored at all to win the AFC East since winning the division back in 2008. In terms of their quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, he's now 7-1 to win MVP, down from 18-1 last week, making him the 2nd-favorite behind Patrick Mahomes. Finally, in Week 2, the Dolphins are road favorites in New England for the first time since 2002. Truly a new division.

Bounce Back?

No. 1 Picks in Second Start

Bryce Young was the 18th quarterback since the merger to go No. 1 overall and start in Week 1 of his draft year. Those quarterbacks went 3-14-1 SU and 5-13 ATS in that Week 1 game. Overall, No. 1 picks to start at QB are 4-22-1 SU and 7-20 ATS in the first start of their careers. The last No. 1 pick to win their first start? David Carr in 2002 – they are 0-14-1 SU and 1-14 ATS since 2003.

How have those QBs performed in their second start?

• 5-21 SU, 10-15-1 ATS
• 3-6 SU, 7-2 ATS since 2010
• 4-10 SU, 7-7 ATS since 2003

Vikings at Eagles | Thursday, Sep 14

8:20pm ET | Amazon

PHI -5.5 | 48.5

Vikings

QB Breakdown: Kirk Cousins

• Cousins is 7-3 ATS vs. Eagles in his career – his most profitable opponent ATS (+$371 on $100 wager).
• In Cousins' career, he has started 39 games in primetime – which are high profile games, night, playoffs, overseas, Saturday, etc. – and is 16-22-1 SU, 15-24 ATS. At night, he is 11-18 SU, 12-17 ATS.
• Cousins went 4-2 SU in primetime last season, but covering the spread has been issue: 1-5 ATS in primetime last year.
• Cousins has been the underdog in primetime 19 times. His teams are 4-14-1 SU, 7-12 ATS (3-12 SU, 5-10 ATS as a dog at night).
• Cousins is 69-71-2 ATS in his career – 30-28 ATS w/ WAS, 39-43-2 ATS w/ MIN.
• Cousins is 12-10-1 ATS on the road since 2020 & 10-17 ATS at home. He's the second-least profitable quarterback ATS at home since 2020.

Vikings-Eagles Notes.

• Vikings have played 10 road night games in September since 1980, they are 1-9 SU, 3-6-1 ATS.
• Vikings have played 28 road night games since 2009, they are 7-21 SU in those games.

Of Course. The Vikings are now 0-1 in one-score games in 2023 after their loss against the Buccaneers in Week 1. They won only just games by more than one score last year, including 11-1 SU in one score games. They ended up with -10 point differential.

Worst Differential for 13+ win teams since merger (incl. postseason) & following season performance

• 2022 Vikings -10 | 2023: 8.5 win total (0-1 SU, ATS)
• 1979 Oilers +26 | 1980: 11-6 SU (WC), 6-9-2 ATS
• 1990 Raiders +31 | 1991: 9-8 SU (WC), 8-9 ATS (U10 win total)
• 1993 Chiefs +31 | 1994: 9-8 SU (WC), 9-8 ATS (U9.5 win total)

Over or Under. The over is 22-13 in Cousins’ 35 starts since 2021 – making him the most profitable QB to the over in that span (of 88 QBs).

Can Cousins pull the upset? He’s 7-23 SU as an underdog of 4 points or more in his career, including 0-5 SU at night as a dog of 4 points or more.

Missing In Action. The Vikings had a tough time on offense last week, scoring just 17 points. In Cousins’ career, his teams are 20-11 ATS week after scoring 17 points or less – 10-5 ATS with Washington, 10-6 ATS with Minnesota.

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Eagles

Home Woes. Thursday home teams are just 27-42 ATS since 2019, including 24-37 ATS in night Thursday games.

QB Breakdown: Jalen Hurts

• Home: 13-5-1 ATS (second-best of 86 QBs since 2020; behind Jared Goff) | Road/Neutral: 7-13 ATS (worst of 88 QBs since 2020)
• Hurts has been money as a favorite. His teams are 22-5 SU as a favorite with Hurts as the starter, including 22-3 SU when the Eagles are favored by 3 points or more (20-1 SU in last 21 starts).
• Hurts in primetime (6 p.m. ET or later): 5-6 SU, 6-4-1 ATS
• Hurts in true night games, (7 p.m. ET or later): 5-5 SU, 6-3-1 ATS (6-1 SU last 7 starts).
• Hurts at home in night games (6 p.m. ET or later): 5-3 SU, 6-1-1 ATS — in the last 20 yrs, Hurts is the eighth-most profitable ATS at home in night games.
  The list: Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Derek Carr, Drew Brees, Michael Vick, Hurts
  Since his first start in 2020, Hurts’ 6-1-1 ATS mark in this spot is best in the NFL
• Hurts has made six career starts on short rest. He is 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS in those games, but was 3-0 SU on short rest last season.

Usual Spot. Eagles are 11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS at home vs. Vikings since 1980.

Pressure Report. The Eagles had just two sacks vs. Mac Jones and the Patriots in Week 1. Philly finished with 70 sacks last season – third-most all-time in the regular season (‘84 Bears: 72, ‘89 Vikings: 71).

The good news? Mac Jones was hurried on 21 dropbacks in Week 1, most of any QB.

Jalen Carter recorded six pressures and a sack on 32 pass rushes in his NFL debut, tied for the most pressures by any rookie defensive tackle in a game over the last five seasons.

Even Steven. Nick Siriani is 19-19-1 ATS career as a head coach.

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Chargers at Titans | Sunday, Sep 17

1:00pm ET | CBS

LAC -2.5 | 45.5

Chargers

QB Breakdown: Justin Herbert

• Herbert is 4-2 ATS in Weeks 1 & 2 (lost in Week 1 last week vs. Miami).
• Herbert by time zone: EST/CST: 12-5 ATS | MST/PST: 15-18-1 ATS
• Herbert doesn’t mind a good road trip. He’s 9-4 ATS in the Eastern or Central time zone after playing in the Pacific time zone in his previous game. He’s 4-0 ATS in that spot since the start of last season.
  Best QBs in that spot: Jimmy Garoppolo (10-4 ATS), Kaepernick (10-4-1 ATS), Herbert (9-4 ATS)
• Herbert as an underdog and as a favorite
  Underdog: 12-6 ATS, 16-2 in 6-pt teasers | Favorite: 15-17-1 ATS, 23-8 in 6-pt teasers
• Herbert is 15-31-5 (32.6%) against the second half spread in his career. Since 2005, he’s 244th of 248 QBs in second-half ATS profitability.

Herbert can’t hold a lead: He’s 7-21-2 against the second half spread when leading at halftime (-$1,455, worst in NFL since he was drafted).

Herbert 2H ATS Career
2023: 0-0-1 ATS
2022: 6-10-2 ATS
2021: 5-12 ATS
2020: 4-9-2 ATS

Road Warriors. Chargers have finished .500 or better against the spread on the road in 11 consecutive seasons.

Tough Loss. Heading into Week 1, teams that …
• Rushed for at least 200 yards
• Held the opponent under 100 rushing yards
• Did not commit a turnover
• Won turnover margin by at least two
Were 110-0 since 2000. Now 110-1. (per Tru Media/Daniel Popper).

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Titans

Coach Breakdown: Mike Vrabel

• Vrabel is 48-35 SU and 43-38-2 ATS as the Titans head coach.
• As an underdog: 20-20 SU, 24-15-1 ATS, including 23-9-1 when the spread is +3 or higher.
• Vrabel is 11-7 SU in September – profiting $100 bettor $871 – best of any coach since his debut in 2018.
• Vrabel is 2-4 SU/ATS in Week 1 – he’s 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS in Week 2.
• Vrabel by game number: 1-2: 4-7 ATS | 3rd game on: 41-34-2 ATS

QB Breakdown: Ryan Tannehill

• Tannehill is 73-72-4 ATS in his career – 32-27-2 ATS w TEN, 41-45-2 ATS w/ MIA.
• Overall, Tannehill excels earlier in the season: 54-43-2 ATS September through November | 19-29-2 ATS in December or later
• Tannehill and Josh Allen both threw three interceptions in Week 1, which doesn’t bode well for their teams in Week 2. Teams to throw at leas three interceptions in Week 1 are just 17-26 ATS in Week 2 over the last 20 years and 61-76-5 ATS in the first four weeks in that span.
• Tannehill is 30-18 against first half spread last three years, best in the NFL.
• Tannehill has started seven Week 1 & 2 games for Titans, he is 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS (he was 8-4 ATS with Dolphins).

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Packers at Falcons | Sunday, Sep 17

1:00pm ET | FOX

ATL -3 | 40

Packers

The Big Flip. The Packers opened as 1.5-point underdogs, moved to 2-pt favorites by Wednesday this week and are now back to 1.5-pt underdogs again vs. the Falcons.

Cover Machine. Matt LaFleur is 14-4 ATS as a ‘dog — 12-4 with Rodgers and 2-0 with Jordan Love. He’s 43-29 ATS in his coaching career.

If It Gets There … Green Bay went 4-5 SU as a favorite of a field goal or more last season. Between 2010-21, they went 96-19-1 SU in that spot. Their last season below .500 straight up in that spot? 2004 (4-5 SU).

Good Omen? Packers took care of business in Chicago Week 1. Over the last 20 years, teams have thoroughly enjoyed the following game after playing at Soldier Field, going 95-58-2 ATS the following week. These teams went 6-2 ATS last season and are 31-16-1 ATS since 2017.

NFL Week 2 Odds: Projected Spreads & Totals From Our ExpertsRead now

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Falcons

Turning It Around. The Falcons won their first Week 1 game since 2017 last week. Falcons have lost SU in Week 2 over the last three seasons. Between 2009-19, Falcons went 10-1 SU in Week 2.

Coach Breakdown: Arthur Smith

• Smith is 6-11 ATS at home as a head coach (10-7-1 ATS road/neutral).
• Smith is the second-worst Falcons head coach ATS at home last 20 years, ahead of just Dan Quinn. Since being hired in 2021, he is the fourth-least profitable coach ATS at home.
• Smith is 6-3 ATS in first four games of the season – his teams are 10-15-1 ATS in game 5 forward.

Undefeated.Desmond Ridder has still never lost a home game as a starting QB in college or the NFL.

• NFL: 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS
• CFB: 26-0 SU, 17-9 ATS
• Total: 29-0 SU, 19-10 ATSThe Ridder Difference. In a small sample size, Ridder has been a better QB at home.
• Home: 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) | 24.7 points per game | TD-INT (3-0) | 6.9 yards per attempt
• Road: 0-2 SU (1-1 ATS) | 13.5 points per game | TD-INT (0-0) | 5.3 yards per attempt

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Colts at Texans | Sunday, Sep 17

1:00pm ET | FOX

HOU -1 | 39.5

Colts

Early Season.

• The Colts went 0-1-1 SU in their two games vs. Texans last season, prior to that, they were 14-5 SU vs. Texans between 2021 and 2013.
• Since 2008, the Colts are 2-14-1 straight up and 1-14-1 ATS in Week 1. Over the past 20 years, the Colts are 5-14-2 ATS in their season opener, the least profitable team ATS in the NFL.
• Colts Week 1 quarterbacks: The Colts had their seventh different Week 1 starter since 2017.

Here are their SU/ATS results for Week 1:

2023: Anthony Richardson – L/L
2022: Matt Ryan – P/L
2021: Carson Wentz – L/L
2020: Philip Rivers – L/L
2019: Jacoby Brissett – L/P
2018: Andrew Luck – L/L
2017: Scott Tolzien – L/L

In Week 2, Colts are 12-8 ATS last 20 years and 5-1 ATS since 2017.

The A-Rich Experience.

• Anthony Richardson had 10 rush attempts in Week 1, second-most of any QB behind Daniel Jones’ 13 attempts. His six designed runs trailed only Jalen Hurts (seven).
• Richardson became the youngest player in NFL history with a passing and rushing TD in the same game. Tons of promise for Indy’s QB.
• Fewest college starts by First-Year QB last 20 years

• 2023 Anthony Richardson, 13 (started Week 1) — Lost first start SU/ATS
• 2017 Mitchell Trubisky, 13 (started Week 5) — Lost first start SU. Won second start SU. Covered first three starts of career.
• 2019 Dwayne Haskins, 14 (started Week 9) — Started career 0-2 SU/ATS.

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Texans

Buckeye Bad. Ohio State first round picks (Justin Fields, Haskins, Art Schlister, CJ Stroud) are 8-38 SU. An Ohio State quarterback hasn’t won his first career NFL start since Craig Krenzel in 2004.

Good Sign.
+ Will Anderson generated six pressures in his NFL debut, the most by a rookie in Week 1 since Nick Bosa and Josh Allen in 2019.
+ CJ Stroud had 28 completions with no interceptions in the loss to Baltimore. Since 1970, the only other quarterbacks with 25-plus completions and zero interceptions in their NFL debut were Mac Jones in 2021 and Dak Prescott in 2016. Jones and Prescott both led their team to double-digit wins and were selected to the Pro Bowl that season.

No Wins Needed. When two winless teams play — like the Texans and Colts — the underdog is 67-37-4 ATS since 2005. Matches this week are Titans, Texans and Cardinals.

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Seahawks at Lions | Sunday, Sep 17

1:00pm ET | FOX

DET -4.5 | 47.5

Seahawks

Coach Breakdown: Pete Carroll

• In Carroll’s 13 years as head coach, the Seahawks are 8-4-1 toward the over on their win total – never won less than 7 games.
• Carroll after losing Week 1: 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS. Carroll is 4-9 ATS in Week 2 & 10-16-1 ATS in Weeks 1 & 2.
• Carroll in Week 3 on: 107-89-7 ATS
• Seahawks tend to perform well for Pete Carroll after a home loss. They are 20-11-1 ATS, covering by 5.9 PPG. In the last 20 years, Carroll is the third-most profitable coaches ATS after a home loss: 1. Belichick, 2. Arians, 3. Pete Carroll
• The offensive bounce back hasn’t boded well for Pete Carroll and the Seahawks. They are just 7-13-2 ATS after scoring 13 pts or less in their previous game since 2014 – making Carroll the 2nd-least profitable coach ATS in that spot ahead of just Hue Jackson.
• The divisional battles might take it out of Seattle. They are 5-12 ATS after facing an NFC West opponent under Carroll, making him second-least profitable coach ATS in that spot

Good Spot. Geno Smith is 19-14-2 ATS as a dog and 7-11 ATS as a favorite.

Turn Around. Vikings and Seahawks are the two teams who were favored by 4 points or more in Week 1 and are now underdogs of 4 points or more in Week 2. Over the last three seasons, we’ve only seen three of these types of teams and they went 0-3 SU/ATS in Week 2.

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Lions

QB Breakdown: Jared Goff

• Goff is 10-1 ATS in Week 1 & 2 in his career – best ATS of any QB in the last 20 years.
• Goff is most profitable QB ATS over last five years overall (49-32-2 ATS, +$1,432).
• Goff ATS by indoor/outdoor

• Indoor: 26-13 ATS (16-5 ATS last two seasons)
• Outdoor: 32-33-2 ATS

• Goff has thrown 359 consecutive passes without an interception following Thursday’s win over the Chiefs. That’s the 3rd-longest streak in NFL history behind Aaron Rodgers (402) and Tom Brady (399).
• If you bet on Goff to throw an interception in every game since the start of last season, you would be down 8.3U (most of any QB).
• Goff on extended rest (eight or more days): 12-10-2 ATS (not including Week 1)
  Goff at home on extended rest with Lions: 3-0 SU/ATS, covering by 20 PPG
• Goff is 17-7 ATS at home since 2020, most profitable QB in the NFL

Highest Lions Spreads for Jared Goff as Starter
-5.5: 2023 vs. SEA
-4.5: 2022 vs. CHI (W, 41-10)
-3.5: 2022 vs. SEA (L, 48-45)

New Territory. Lions are not used to being this big a favorite this early in the year. Last time Detroit was a favorite of 3 points or more in Week 1 or 2 came in 2018 and its happened only twice since 2014.

Early Overs. Even after going under last week, Lions games are 5-2 to over in September under Dan Campbell

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Bears at Buccaneers | Sunday, Sep 17

1:00pm ET | FOX

TB -2.5 | 40.5

Bears

Bad Bears.

• Bears have lost 11 consecutive games SU dating back to last season.
• Bears went 3-14 SU last season, most losses in franchise history. Now 0-1 SU to start the year. Chicago is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games.
• The Bears have been an incredible fade in divisional matchups the past few seasons, going a pathetic 5-19-1 ATS vs the Lions, Packers and Vikings since 2019, losing a $100 bettor $1,414 – that is the least profitable team vs. their own division in the NFL in that span.

• CHI is 17-26 ATS vs. other divisions since 2019
• CHI is 22-45-1 ATS since 2019, worst of any team

No Distance. Justin Fields won’t throw it downfield. His 2.9 intended air yards/attempt in Week 1 was the lowest of any QB in the NFL.

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Bucs

QB Breakdown: Baker Mayfield

• Mayfield is 3-6 ATS in Weeks 1 & 2. Bucs and Baker upset the Vikings in Week 1. Can they win again? Baker has played 13 career games off of a SU win as an underdog, his teams are 3-10 SU and 5-8 ATS in their next game after pulling the upset.
• Mayfield is 30-41-1 ATS since being drafted No. 1 overall by the Browns in 2018, losing a $100 bettor $1,232 (269th of 275 QBs last 20 years).
• Mayfield is 6-13 ATS at home since 2020 – 84th of 86 QBs.

• No. 84. Baker 6-13 ATS
• No. 85. Cousins 10-17 ATS
• No. 86. Matt Ryan 6-14 ATS

2-0 Start? Todd Bowles is one of the worst coaches in the NFL as an underdog. 13-36 SU, 19-27-3 ATS as an underdog (22-15 SU as a favorite).

Buyer Beware:Teams to open as the underdog and close as the favorite are 44-82 ATS (34.9%) since 2018.
Week 2 matches: Buccaneers & Browns

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Raiders at Bills | Sunday, Sep 17

1:00pm ET | CBS

BUF -8.5 | 47

Raiders

QB Breakdown: Jimmy Garoppolo

• Garoppolo is 7-8 ATS in September and 31-17-1 ATS in all other months.
• Garoppolo is 16-7 straight up and 18-5 against the spread as an underdog in his NFL career. In the last 20 years, we’ve had 269 QBs listed as an underdog at least once.

Most Games Above .500 SU as Dog – Last 20 Years

• Jimmy Garoppolo: 9 (16-7)
• Ben Roethlisberger: 4 (38-34)
• Tom Brady: 4 (25-21)
• Patrick Mahomes: 4 (7-3)

Most profitable QB ATS as dog last 20 years: Teddy Bridgewater, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Jimmy Garoppolo

Leaving Las Vegas.

• Raiders home/road since moving to Las Vegas.

• Raiders at home in Vegas: 11-14 SU, 13-12 ATS
• On road/neutral: 14-13 SU, 12-15 ATS

Raiders are most profitable road/neutral team on ML since moving to Vegas (+$907)

The Big Fade. Josh McDaniels coached teams fade late in the season.

• 11-11 SU in Sept-Oct
• 7-17 SU in Nov or later

Two of a Kind. The Raiders and Rams are looking to pull the upset again. They are two teams that won as dogs of 3 points or more in Week 1 and are dogs of 3 points or more in Week 2 again.

In the last 20 years, 33 teams have tried what the Raiders and Rams are attempting and six pulled off the upset (6-27 SU): '21 Raiders, '18 Chiefs, '18 Buccaneers, '10 Chiefs, '09 Jets, '07 Packers

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Bills

QB Breakdown: Josh Allen

• Bills are now off of a loss against the Jets and on a short week to face the Raiders at home.
• Allen is 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS in Week 2. Bills have won four straight Week 2s SU.
• Allen off a SU loss: 17-7 SU, 12-10-2 ATS
• Allen hasn’t bounced back well off division losses. He’s 2-7 ATS in his next game after AFC East loss and 10-3-2 ATS when facing non AFC East after a loss.
• As a favorite of 7 points or more at home, Josh Allen is 16-1 SU, 8-7-2 ATS (lost to Colts in 2021)
• Ryan Tannehill and Josh Allen both threw three interceptions in Week 1, which doesn’t bode well for their teams in Week 2. Teams to throw at least three interceptions in Week 1 are just 17-26 ATS in Week 2 over the last 20 years and 61-76-5 ATS in the first four weeks in that span.

NFL quarterbacks with the most turnovers since 2018:
Josh Allen – 84
Jared Goff – 80
Matt Ryan – 79
Derek Carr – 79
Baker Mayfield – 78

Early Success. Bills failed to cover in Week 1. They were 14-6 ATS in Week 1, best in NFL last 20 years. Overall, Bills are good early. They are 25-15-1 ATS first two games of the season since 2003 and only started 0-2 ATS three times in 20 years.

Big Favorites.

• Bills are one of four teams to be 0-1 SU and be listed as a favorite over a 1-0 SU team in Week 2. Buffalo is by far the biggest favorite of the four at over a TD. Teams favored by 7 points or more in this spot are 13-2 SU, 10-4-1 ATS last 20 years.
• Anyone -7 or higher after a Week 1 loss? Bills are.

• Favorites of 7 or more who are under .500 SU on the season are 82-14 SU since 2016, winning by 11 PPG (including 36-5 SU last three seasons).
• Favorites of more than 7 pts who are under .500 SU on the season are 22-0 SU last two seasons and 66-9 SU since 2016.

Double-digit favorites even out.
Week 1: 5-12 ATS
Week 2: 17-16 ATS
Week 3: 14-19-2 ATS
Week 4: 17-12 ATS
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Weeks 1-4: 53-59-2 ATS

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Chiefs at Jaguars | Sunday, Sep 17

1:00pm ET | CBS

KC -3.5 | 51.5

Chiefs

QB Breakdown: Patrick Mahomes

• Home: 23-26-1 ATS | Road/Neutral: 26-18-1 ATS
• 1 p.m. ET: 13-16-1 ATS | After 1 p.m. ET slate: 36-28-1 ATS
• Mahomes is 10-1 SU when playing road/neutral after a SU loss in his previous game.
• In tight games (spread of 3.5 or less), Mahomes is 15-6 SU road/neutral.
• Mahomes career based on rest

• Six days or less: 9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS
• Seven days: 39-11 SU, 26-23-1 ATS
• Eight days: 22-5 SU, 13-13-1 ATS

• Mahomes 13-4 SU, 9-8 ATS in September. In Week 2-3: 5-5 ATS in his career.
• Mahomes starts by point spread

• Favorite: 85 (41-43-1 ATS) | Dog: 10 (8-1-1 ATS)
• Favorites of -10 or higher: 23 (9-13-1 ATS) | -9.5 or less/or dog: 72 (40-31-1 ATS)
• Favorites of -3 or less/dog: 26 (19-6-1 ATS) | -3.5 or higher: 69 (30-38-1 ATS)

• Mahomes after a SU loss: 14-3 SU, 9-8 ATS.

Rare Occurrence. The only other time Mahomes lost SU in first two weeks, the Chiefs lost Week 3, too (2021 vs. Chargers). Mahomes 10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS road/neutral after a SU loss. Last year, Mahomes played two games off a SU loss where K.C. scored 20 points or fewer. K.C. went 2-0 SU/ATS and averaged 42.5 PPG.

Coach Breakdown: Andy Reid

• Reid last 20 years on eight or more days rest: 56-25 SU, 45-35-1 ATS. When rest comes early, Reid's teams are great.

• Sept-Oct: 20-8 ATS
• Nov or later: 25-27-1 ATS

• Reid is 7-13 ATS in Week 2 over the last 20 years – 4-6 ATS with K.C. and 3-7 ATS with Philadelphia.
• Reid after a SU loss in September and October is 28-19 ATS last 20 years – fourth-best mark of any head coach (Bill Belichick, Sean Payton, Mike Tomlin, Reid).
• Reid is 44-23 SU in September since 2003, including 16-4 SU since 2017-18. His 44-23 record has profited a $100 moneyline bettor $922 — most of any coach in the Bet Labs database.

Favorite Loss. The Chiefs are the seventh preseason Super Bowl odds favorite to lose outright in Week 1 in the Wild Card era (since 1990) and the first to do so since the Patriots in 2017. The previous six teams went 3-3 SU/ATS in Week 2. Five of those six teams still made playoffs (2002 Rams), two made Super Bowl (2017 NE, 1993 DAL) and one won it all (1993 DAL).

Domination. The Chiefs are 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS vs. Jaguars since 2010 (Mahomes: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS).

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Jaguars

QB Breakdown: Trevor Lawrence

• Lawrence has faced Mahomes twice and lost by seven and 10 pts. The Jaguars closed +9.5 in both meetings.
• Lawrence is 9-6 SU in his last 15 starts as an underdog.
• Lawrence is 16-21 ATS in his career – 11-9 ATS w/ Doug Pederson, 5-12 ATS w/ Darrell Bevell and Urban Meyer.
• Lawrence is 15-22 against the first half spread in his career – he's the second-worst of 88 QBs since 2021 ahead of Tom Brady.
• Lawrence is 22-15 to the under in the last two seasons, fourth-most profitable QB to the under in the NFL (of 88 QBs)
• For the Jaguars under Lawrence, its been a bit tough after divisional games, going 3-7 ATS, including 2-7 ATS in regular season.
• Lawrence on the moneyline as an underdog: Home: 7-5 SU | Road/Neutral: 4-13 SU

Comes On Late. Doug Pederson is 54-52 ATS in his NFL coaching career: Sept-Nov: 30-37 ATS | Dec on: 24-15 ATS

Running Hot. Jaguars are 7-1 SU/ATS in their last 8 games dating back to last season.

Disrespect. Jaguars are the eighth team in the last 20 years to be 1-0 SU and be listed as a home underdog vs. a team 0-1 SU. Those previous teams went 1-6 SU, 1-4-2 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 11.4 PPG.

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Ravens at Bengals | Sunday, Sep 17

1:00pm ET | CBS

CIN -3 | 45.5

Ravens

QB Breakdown: Lamar Jackson

• Has Jackson lost the first half charm? 2021-23: 10-14-1 1H ATS | 2018-20: 28-12-1 1H ATS
• Jackson tends to cover the first half early in the season. In Games 1-4 he is 11-5-1 1H ATS. He is 7-2 1H ATS first two weeks (didn’t cover 1H ATS Week 1).
• In Week 2, Jackson is 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS. (Lost to Miami SU last year.)
• Over the past two seasons, Jackson is a perfect 5-0 ATS as an underdog, but 6-14 ATS as a favorite, including 4-14 ATS when favored by 3 points or more.
• Jackson as a dog: 7-5 SU, 10-2 ATS
• Jackson hasn’t closed +4 or higher since September 2019 vs. Chiefs (+4.5).
• The Texans pressured Jackson on 39% of his dropbacks and sacked him on 15% of his dropbacks in Week 1.

Keep It Going. Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 12-4 ATS in Week 1, the most profitable Week 1 coach in the Bet Labs database. Harbaugh is 9-6 SU, ATS in Week 2 as coach of the Ravens.

Between Weeks 1 & 2, Harbaugh is 21-10 ATS, best coach ATS in NFL

Dog Eat Dog World.

• Harbaugh's record as an underdog: 53-34-3 ATS – third-best of any coach in NFL last 20 years (Mike Tomlin, Sean Payton).
• The Ravens are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog, including 18-5 ATS as a dog since 2018 – second-best in the NFL in that span behind the Steelers.

Good Start. Todd Monken and Ravens get cover in Week 1. Can it continue?

Monken is new offensive coordinator in Baltimore — his fifth offensive coordinator type stint in NFL — and his teams' ATS results haven’t been great. Monken-led offenses are 10-18-1 ATS (36%) in September and October.

2023: BAL 1-0 ATS
2019 CLE: 5-10-1 ATS
2018 TB: 5-9-2 ATS
2017 TB: 6-9-1 ATS
2016 TB: 9-7 ATS
Total: 26-35-4 ATS

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Bengals

Black and Blue Division.

How close has the rivalry been between Bengals, Steelers and Ravens?
CIN-BAL: Six of last eight won by double-digits
CIN-PIT: Five of last Eight won by double-digits
PIT-BAL: 13 of last 16 meetings within one-score.

QB Breakdown: Joe Burrow

• Burrow 2-5 ATS in Weeks 1 & 2. That's second-worst ATS profit of any QB since Burrow was drafted, ahead of only Matt Ryan.
• Burrow is 32-18 ATS in his career – eighth-most profitable entering 2023 last 20 years: Brady, Rodgers, Peyton, Brees, Teddy, Alex Smith, Luck, Burrow
• Burrow has never faced the Ravens off a SU loss in his career. This will be Burrow’s first home start against Lamar Jackson (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS vs. him on road).
• Burrow is 19-7 SU as a favorite. His eight-game SU win streak as a favorite broken last week (he’s 12-2 SU last 14)
• Burrow is 8-9 SU vs. AFC North and 21-11-1 SU vs. all other divisions.
• Burrow attempted 11 passes that traveled more than 10 yards downfield, he went 1-11.
• Burrow had a 1.3 air yards/attempt in Week 1, lowest of any QB.

Burrow bounceback?
+ Burow is 13-4 ATS after a SU loss, including 8-1 ATS in Sept/Oct.
+ Burrow is 7-1 AT after a SU loss when scoring fewer than 20 pts
+ Since 2020, Burrow’s 13-4 ATS figure after a SU loss is second-best in NFL behind Daniel Jones.
+ Burrow has lost by more than one-score five times prior to last week and Bengals are just 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS in their next game.

Rare Beat. Last week was the Bengals' first straight-up loss by more than 3 pts in last 19 games with Ja’Marr Chase in the lineup. Take out their Week 18 game at the end of 2021, and the streak went 23 total games with Chase. The Bengals are 12-3 ATS in last 15 regular season games (The Browns make up two of those three ATS losses).

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Giants at Cardinals | Sunday, Sep 17

4:05pm ET | FOX

NYG -4.5 | 39.5

Giants

Love The Road. Daniel Jones' home/road splits tell a story. Home: 13-16 ATS (-$413) | Road/Neutral: 19-8 ATS (+$970) – No. 1 of 95 QBs since he was drafted.

Bad Line. Jones was sacked seven times in Week 1, most of any QB.

Bad, Bad Loss.

• Giants got embarrassed vs. Cowboys, 40-0. Jones is 21-10 ATS in his career after a SU loss, including 18-5 ATS over the last four seasons – Jones is the most profitable QB ATS after a loss since 2020.
• Aaron Schatz: Giants are the 31st team since 1981 to start the season with a game that had DVOA under -100%. The previous 30 teams averaged 6.1 wins. But five of them made the playoffs! 1985 Jets 1989 Oilers 1989 Steelers 1991 Lions 2020 Browns.
• Biggest shutout victory in a Cowboys opener and the biggest shutout loss in a Giants opener. There hasn't been a season-opening shutout of 40+ in the NFL since 1999 (Steelers beat Browns 43-0 in Cleveland's first game back as expansion team).

Most lopsided shutout wins by road team in Week 1:
1989: Browns 51-0 vs Steelers
1954: Rams 48-0 vs Colts
1999: Steelers 43-0 vs Browns
2023: Cowboys 40-0 vs Giants
1970: Lions 40-0 vs Packers

How’d those teams finish?
1954 Colts went 3-9, didn’t win a game by seven points, last in scoring
1999 Browns went 2-14, last in scoring
1970 Packers went 6-8, won one game by double digits
1989 Steelers won a wild card game, because … Steelers

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Cardinals

Life Without Kyler.

• With Kyler Murray hurt, the Cardinals will start a “backup QB” in Week 2. Cardinals are 3-7 SU, 6-4 ATS with a backup QB in the Murray era (since 2019).
• Points scored in Cardinals games since start of last year without Murray: 13, 19, 16, 15, 10, 27, 16

Cover Start. The Cardinals entered the season with the lowest win total and opened the year with a cover. In the 17-game schedule era, five teams to have win total of 4.5 or less are 38-31 ATS, including starting 8-1 ATS in the first two weeks of the season.

Lowest Win Total in 17-Game Schedule Era (Since 2021)
4 – 2021 Texans (3 wins, 8-9 ATS – started 2-0 ATS)
4.5 – 2023 Cardinals (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS)
4.5 – 2022 Falcons (7 wins, 9-8 ATS – started 2-0 ATS)
4.5 – 2022 Texans (3 wins, 9-8 ATS – started 2-0 ATS)
4.5 – 2021 Lions (4 wins, 11-6 ATS – started 1-1 ATS)

Nobody Cares. Cardinals had the lowest bet percentage of any team in Week 1. They could be going for history in Week 2.

25% or fewer betting tickets in the first two weeks:

• Last team was Jets in 2020 (only other team since 2017)
• 0-2 SU/ATS + 25% or less bet% through two weeks: 2020 NYJ, 2015 CHI, 2010 BUF, 2006 HOU

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49ers at Rams | Sunday, Sep 17

4:05pm ET | FOX

SF -7.5 | 45.5

49ers

Coach Breakdown: Kyle Shanahan

• The 49ers are 20-11 ATS as a road dog under Kyle Shanahan. As a road favorite, the Niners are just 11-11 ATS.
• The Niners are 2-5 ATS in Week 1 under Shanahan (3-4 SU). His teams are used to the bounce back, he is 5-1 SU/ATS in Week 2, winning four straight ATS and five straight SU.

Division Domination.
+ The 49ers went 7-0 ATS vs. NFC West last season.
+ They are 26-15 ATS last two seasons – fourth-most profitable team in NFL (CIN, DET, DAL, SF)

Go CMC Go. In games that Christian McCaffrey started dating back to last season, the 49ers are 13-1 SU, 11-3 ATS.

Rise of Brock.
+ Most profitable 49ers QBs last 20 years: Garoppolo: 35-25-1 ATS, Shaun Hill 12-4 ATS, Brok Purdy 7-2 ATS
+ Purdy is 8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS career – 8-0 SU in games he finished.
+ The 49ers have moved from -190 to -500 to win NFC West between Weeks 1 & 2.

New Ground. Two 1-0 SU teams meet in a divisional battle in Week 2. Last 20 years, two 1-0 SU teams meeting with a spread of 7 or more only happened nine times. The favorite is 2-7 ATS in those and with the line above 7, favorites went 0-5 ATS.

Largest Road Spreads Last 20 Years – Two 1-0 SU Teams in Week 2
-8.5: Chiefs at Chargers, 2020. KC 23-20
-8: 49ers at Rams, 2023
-7: Chiefs at Raiders, 2019. KC 28-10
-7: Colts at Titans, 2007. IND 22-20

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Rams

QB and Coach Breakdown: Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay

• Stafford is 4-7 ATS Weeks 1 & 2 since 2018 – Stafford and McVay 2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS in Week 2.
• McVay is 6-1 ATS in Week 1, the third-best mark of any coach over the last 20 years. In Week 2 he is 3-3 ATS and in Weeks 2-4 he is 8-10 ATS.
• McVay is the other hot coach early on. He is 17-4 SU in September, going above .500 SU in all six seasons.
• McVay is 23-16-1 ATS vs. NFC West & 33-34-2 ATS vs. all other visions

• ARI: 10-2-1 ATS | SEA: 10-4 ATS (20-6-1 ATS combined)
• SF: 3-10 ATS

• Stafford hasn’t finished above .500 ATS in a season since 2018 – he was 2-6-1 ATS last year, his worst season since 2013. Rams, Stafford 1-0 SU/ATS this season.
• Stafford can’t beat good teams. He’s 30-62 SU, but 7-5 SU with Rams vs. teams above .500 SU (0-1 SU last year). Against teams above .500 SU: 17-15 SU as a favorite | 13-47 SU as underdog
• Stafford is 13-17-1 ATS with Rams – second-least profitable QB for the franchise last 20 years (Marc Bulger).

Coaching Matchup. McVay vs. Shanahan: 4-9 SU, 3-10 ATS (least profitable opposing coach ATS). McVay is 1-8 SU vs. Kyle since 2019.

New Man. Puka Nacua was targeted 15 times in his NFL debut, the most by a rookie in Week 1 over the last eight seasons

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Jets at Cowboys | Sunday, Sep 17

4:25pm ET | CBS

DAL -8.5 | 38.5

Jets

Down and Out. With Aaron Rodgers hurt, the Jets will now start a “backup QB” in Week 2. Jets have struggled mightily through the years when they are forced to go to a backup QB. They are 3-24 SU, 10-17 ATS over the last decade when starting a backup QB. When the QB is making his first start as a backup that year, 1-8 SU – the one win was Mike White vs. Bengals.

Over Just Like That. Fewest snaps played by Week 1 QB starting a season since 2007:
Three snaps – Rodgers, Jets, 2023 | 15 snaps – Brady, Patriots, 2008 & Fitzpatrick, Commanders, 2021

Line Move. The Jets opened +3 at Dallas on Tuesday Sept 5. Line has since moved up to 9-9.5.

The Big Difference. Aaron Rodgers vs. Zach Wilson

• Wilson has completed just 55% of his passes. He's thrown more interceptions (18) than touchdowns (15) with a lifetime 8-14 record, and he's been sacked about once every 10 dropbacks (9.7%).
• With Wilson in the lineup, the Jets offense ranked 27th in DVOA and bottom 10 both passing and rushing.

Zach Wilson: 8-14 SU, 10-12 ATS
Aaron Rodgers: 159-85-1 SU, 140-100-5 ATS | Last 3 years: 22-13 SU, 20-15 ATS

• Wilson won’t throw it downfield — His 3.7 intended air yards per attempt in Week 1 was the fourth-lowest in NFL.
• Wilson was pressured on just two plays – good sign.

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Cowboys

Texas-Sized Expectations. The Cowboys have gone over win total last two years. The last time they went over three years in a row? 1990 to 1995 (six years).

Mistake Free. Dak Prescott threw did not throw an interception in Week 1. If you bet on Prescott to throw an interception in every game last season, you would be up 8.6U (most of any QB). Second was Aaron Rodgers at +7.2U.

QB and Coach Breakdown: Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy

• The Cowboys are 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS in Week 1 under Mike McCarthy and 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS in Week 2 under McCarthy. Overall, McCarthy is 19-13-1 ATS in first two weeks.
• McCarthy in Sept-Oct: 66-46-3 ATS (third-best last 20 years for any coach).
• Prescott is now 25-10 ATS vs. NFC East and 31-36-2 ATS vs. all other divisions (-$662).

Big Blowout. Cowboys beat the Giants in Week 1 by 40 points – 40-0. Since 2010, teams that win their opener by 21 or more points have gone 8-20 (29%) ATS in Week 2.

• The Cowboys become the second team in NFL history to record a 40+ point shutout & at least one offensive, defensive & special teams TD in a season opener. The other team to do this was the 1920 Akron Pros against the Wheeling Stogies (43-0).

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Commanders at Broncos | Sunday, Sep 17

4:25pm ET | CBS

DEN -3.5 | 38.5

Commanders

Coach Breakdown: Ron Rivera

• Rivera has been an NFL head coach for 12 seasons. His teams have finished .500 or worse in nine of 12.
• In the first four games of the year, Rivera coached teams are 5-12 ATS after a SU win. He is the least profitable coach ATS in the NFL in that spot.
• Washington has played four road games in Mountain/Pacific time zone under Rivera, they are 1-3 SU/ATS, averaging 15.5 PPG.

Low, Low, Low. The total in Commanders vs. Broncos has moved down a bunch. In Week 2, totals to move down 2+ pts are 28-22 to under and 3+ pts 13-6 to the under in the last 20 years.

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Broncos

Home, Again.

• The Broncos play at home again in Week 2, against the Commanders after their Week 1 home loss to the Raiders.
• Denver is 32-9 straight up at home in the month of September dating back to 2002.
• After a home loss, the Broncos are 10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS when playing at home again over the last 20 years – Russell Wilson himself is 4-1 SU in this spot.

Mile High. Broncos home games have been an under-fest. They are 12-6 last three years and 43-25-1 since 2015 – all eight years .500 or better to the under at home.

Coach Breakdown: Sean Payton

• Payton is 24-16 ATS after a SU loss at home, including 15-5 ATS since 2015.
• Payton ATS by QB: Brees: 122-104-3 ATS | All others: 18-12 ATS
• Most profitable coaches ATS last 20 yrs: 1. Belichick, 2. McCarthy, 3. Payton
• Payton has gone seven straight years with his team above .500 ATS (2015-21)
• In 16 seasons, Payton's teams are 13-3 above .500 ATS and 9-5-2 to the over on their win total
• Mike Tomlin is know as a the king of the underdogs. He’s 53-31-1 ATS last 20 years as a dog, best coach in the NFL. Second-best? Payton, 50-30-2 ATS.
• Payton after losing Week 1: 2-5 SU/ATS, failing to cover the spread by 7.1 PPG.
• Payton is 4-11 ATS in Week 2, worst of any coach over the last 20 years

Nathaniel Hackett’s debut as Broncos head coach: 17-16 road loss to the Seahawks Total yards: 433
Sean Payton’s debut as Broncos head coach: 17-16 home loss to the Raiders Total yards: 260

QB Breakdown: Russell Wilson

• Wilson is 5-8 SU at home over the last two seasons, he was 60-18 SU in his first nine seasons in the NFL.
• Wilson is 8-14-1 ATS in Weeks 1 & 2 in his career – over the last 20 years, that is the third-worst ATS mark of 163 QBs in the NFL.

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Dolphins at Patriots | Sunday, Sep 17

8:20pm ET | NBC

MIA -2.5 | 46.5

Dolphins

QB Breakdown: Tua Tagovailoa

• Tagovailoa is 20-14-1 ATS in his career – 12-5 ATS at home, 8-9-1 ATS road/neutral
• Tagovailoa: 17-7-1 ATS in the Eastern time zone | 3-6 ATS all other time zones
• Tagovailoa is 4-0 ATS vs. Patriots. He’s 3-3-1 ATS vs. Bills and Jets.

Most profitable QB ATS last 20 yrs vs. NE:
Eli Manning 5-0 ATS, Josh Allen 7-2-1 ATS, Tagovailoa: 4-0 ATS, Geno Smith: 4-0 ATS

QBs 4-0 ATS or better vs. NE under Belichick:
Eli Manning 5-0 ATS, Geno Smith 4-0 ATS, Tagovailoa 4-0 ATS

Most Pass Yds Week 1, in Super Bowl era
2011 Tom Brady, 511, L in SB
1994 Dan Marino, 473, Divisional Round
2023 Tagovailoa, 466
2013 Peyton Manning, 462, L in SB

New Year. Dolphins entered 2023 losing 5 straight road games SU – beat Chargers on road in Week 1.

Cross Country. The Dolphins are in unique spot playing on the road in the Pacific time zone in Week 1 and Eastern time zone in Week 2.
+ It's happened five times in Weeks 1 & 2 the last 20 years. The Chiefs last did it in 2018.
+ Those teams went 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS. SU margin was -42 in five games.
+ These road-to-road, PST to EST teams are 43-49-2 ATS last 20 years in any week. When that team won the prior game, 19-26-1 ATS.

Fast Start. Tyreek Hill's 215 receiving yards against the Chargers are the second-most in a Week 1 game in the Super Bowl era, just two yards shy of Anquan Boldin's record 217 yards that he put up in his 2003 opener against the Lions.

Teal Power. After the Bills lost, and Aaron Rodgers’ season-ending injury, the Dolphins are the favorites to win AFC East. Miami hasn’t been a preseason favorite to win AFC East since 2003 and they haven’t been favored at all to win the AFC East since winning the division back in 2008.

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Patriots

It's Been A Minute. The Patriots are underdogs in their first two games of the season for the first time since 2003 and the first time since 1976 with both games being at home. The last time the Patriots were dogs in their first two home games of the year was back in 2001.

A Rare Home Dog.

+ Bill Belichick as home dog with Patriots: 9-12 SU, 12-9 ATS. Belichick has lost seven consecutive games SU as a home dog dating back to 2020 (0-5 ATS last five games as home dog, too).

He’s 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS as a home dog with Mac Jones

He’s 9-6 SU, 11-4 ATS as a home dog with all other QBs

+ This will be Belichick’s ninth home game as an underdog played at night in New England. He’s 3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS in the previous eight games. Lost three straight night games as home dog – two with Mac Jones.

+ This will only be Belichick’s eighth home game as an underdog vs. an AFC East opponent.

He’s 0-2 SU/ATS last 20 years in this spot – both against Bills. Overall he’s 3-4. 4-3 ATS as a home dog vs. AFC East

+ The last time Belichick and the Patriots were home dogs vs. Dolphins? Dec. 29, 2002 – a total of 20 consecutive home games listed as a favorite for Patriots vs. Dolphins.

+ This is the earliest in the season Belichick, the Pats have been home dogs vs. AFC East opponent since Sept. 23, 2001 – when NE was +1.5 at home vs. Jets in Week 2.

Bad Start. The Patriots' four-game ATS losing streak entering season is longest of any team – now losers of five straight ATS dating back to last season.

QB Breakdown: Mac Jones

• Jones is 14-18-1 ATS career – least profitable QB last 20 yrs under Belichick
• Jones is 0-3 SU/ATS in Week 1 (scored 43 total pts)
• Jones is 4-0 ATS vs. Zack Wilson, 10-18-1 ATS vs. all other QBs
• Jones is 11-7-1 ATS as a favorite, 3-11 ATS as an underdog
• Jones is 0-8 ATS as dog since start of last season – rest of NFL is 165-122-5 as a dog in that span

Can't Beat 'Em.

• Recently, the Patriots have struggled against the best. Since 2019, they are 13-20-2 ATS vs. above .500 SU opponents, fouth-worst ATS mark in the NFL. In that same span, they are 9-18-1 ATS vs. teams who made playoffs previous season, third-worst mark in the NFL (SEA, CHI).
• Since Brady left, Belichick & NE are 25-27 SU, 24-27-1 ATS since 2020. Belichick without Tom Brady as head coach: 43-45 SU w/ NE, 36-44 SU w/ CLE.
• Between 2003 and 2020, Bill Belichick was 42-16 SU in September, but recently, the trend has fallen by the wayside as he’s 2-5 SU in September over the past three years.

Least Profitable Coaches SU in Sept Since 2021
Urban Meyer 0-4 SU
Bill Belichick 2-5 SU
Frank Reich 1-5-1 SU
Joe Judge 0-3 SU

Patriots since 2020 without Tom Brady
5-1 ATS vs. Jets
3-10 ATS vs. Bills/Dolphins

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Saints at Panthers | Monday, Sep 18

7:15pm ET | ESPN

NO -3 | 39.5

Saints

QB Breakdown: Derek Carr

• The Saints picked up a narrow win against the Titans in Week 1, but didn't cover the spread. In Derek Carr’s career, he is 26-35 ATS after a SU win, fourth-least profitable QB in the NFL since 2003.
• Carr was 17-29-1 ATS as a favorite with the Raiders, with a $100 bettor down $1,286. Now with the Saints he is 0-1 ATS as a favorite after winning SU last week but failing to cover.
• Carr is the third-least profitable (210 of 212) quarterback as a favorite in the past 20 years. He’s ahead of just Carson Palmer and Jay Cutler.
• Carr hasn’t had a year above .500 ATS as a favorite since 2016
• Carr has a new head coach-offensive coordinator-quarterback coach regime now for the fifth time in his career. 26-34-2 ATS in those previous four seasons and 0-1 ATS in 2023 with Saints.
  15: 8-8 ATS, 17: 5-8-2 ATS, 18: 6-10 ATS, 22: 7-8 ATS, 23: 0-1 ATS
• Carr had an intended air yards/per attempt of 11.5 in Week 1, highest of any QB.

Coach Breakdown: Dennis Allen

• Allen: 16-38 (30%) SU, 21-32-1 (40%) ATS

• As a favorite: 8-5 SU, 4-9 ATS
• Dog of more than FG: 5-23 SU
• After a SU win: 3-12 SU

• Allen is 5-12-1 ATS vs. divisional foes as a head coach (1-9 ATS last 10 games)

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Panthers

Bounce Back Coming?

• Frank Reich by game number
  Opener: 0-5-1 SU
  Week 2: 4-1 SU
  Week 3: 4-1 SU

Not Going To Help. Bryce Young was the 18th quarterback since the merger to go No. 1 overall and start in Week 1 of his draft year. Those quarterbacks went 3-14-1 SU and 5-13 ATS in that Week 1 game.

Overall, No. 1 picks to start at QB are 4-22-1 SU and 7-20 ATS in the first start of their careers. The last No. 1 pick to win their first start? David Carr in 2002 – they are 0-14-1 SU and 1-14 ATS since 2003.

How have those QBs performed in their second start?
5-21 SU, 10-15-1 ATS
3-6 SU, 7-2 ATS since 2010
4-10 SU, 7-7 ATS since 2003

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Browns at Steelers | Monday, Sep 18

8:15pm ET | ABC

CLE -2.5 | 38.5

Browns

Trouble In Pittsburgh.

• Since 2004, the Browns are 1-19 SU, 7-13 ATS in Pittsburgh. Their only win came in January, 2021 in the playoffs.
• Browns are 3-9 SU on the road in night games vs. AFC North.

Good Start. Browns are 6-13 ATS vs. AFC North under Kevin Stefanski after beating Bengals last week. Of 143 head coaches last 20 years to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is sixth-least profitable coach. Recently though, Stefanski is 5-2 ATS vs. AFC North since start of last season.

New Era. Browns have won their opener the last two years. Now 2-16-1 SU in Week 1 since 2005 & 3-22-1 SU in openers since 1995.

Forget What You Saw. Teams who lose by 17 or more playing a team that won by 17 or more the previous week are 107-73-4 ATS (59% win rate) the ensuing week over the last 20 years – which is not a good sign for the Browns.

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Steelers

Perfect Spot.

• Since merger in 1970, Steelers are 52-20 SU at home in night games, including 15-6 SU, 10-10-1 ATS since 2014.
• Steelers have been historically successful on Monday Night Football. Overall, they are 12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS on MNF since 2014 and 19-3 SU, 12-10 ATS since 2007.
• Pittsburgh has excelled on MNF even more at home. They’ve won 20 consecutive games SU at home on MNF, with their last loss on Oct. 14, 1991 against the Giants and Jeff Hostetler.

Early Dogs. The Steelers are underdogs in their first two games of the season in back-to-back years, with it happening last year. It hadn’t happened for Pittsburgh prior to that since 2010 and before that in 1995. Steelers are home dogs in their first two games of the year for the first time since 1957. Last time the Steelers were dogs in their first two home games of the year was back in 2000.

QB Breakdown: Mike Tomlin

• Tomlin in Week 1: 10-6-1 SU, 8-9 ATS .. just 9-7 SU, 7-8-1 ATS in Week 2
  Tomlin is 27-36-2 ATS games 1-4 | 5th game on: 113-93-5 ATS
  In games 1-4, Tomlin’s 27-36-2 ATS mark is 2nd-worst of 134 coaches (just ahead of John Fox).
• Steelers are 53-31-4 ATS as an underdog under Tomlin, making a $100 bettor $1,999, making him the most profitable coach as a dog in the last 20 years.
  Steelers haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS as an underdog since 2016 and its only happened twice under Tomlin.
  PIT is 0-1 SU, ATS as an underdog in 2023.
• Steelers as home dog under Tomlin: 16-5-3 ATS (+$1,036) (14-10 SU)
• Steelers under Mike Tomlin without Ben Roethlisberger: 30-20-3 ATS, covering by 2 PPG.
• Per @ClevTA on X. Impact of Cam Heyward.

Since 2021 (not including last week):
On 731 rush atts with Heyward on the field:
-0.014 EPA/ATT, 42% success rate allowed, 4.64 ypc

On 209 rush atts with Heyward off the field:
0.051 EPA/ATT,46% success rate allowed, 5.12 ypc

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NFL Public Sides & Line Moves ⤵️

Biggest NFL Week 2 Public Sides
Giants (-4.5) at ARI					82% of bets
Bills (-8.5) vs. LV					70% of bets

Biggest NFL Week 2 Line Moves
Cowboys (-3 to -8.5) vs. NYJ
Buccaneers (+1.5 to -2.5) vs. CHI

NFL Ticket Count & Public Totals ⤵️

Most Bet Games By Ticket Count in Week 2
Chiefs at Jaguars (+3.5)					170k bets
Raiders at Bills (-8.5)					145k bets

Biggest NFL Week 2 Public Totals
KC-JAC (O/U: 51.5)					76% of bets to over
SF-LAR (O/U: 45.5)					73% of bets to over

System: The Bounce Back. Teams coming off a double-digit loss in Week 1 are known to be profitable in Week 2, but extend this out to early in the season and have that team a bit undervalued on the road and you have a recipe for long term success.

Matches: Giants, Colts, Bears, Seahawks

Bounce Back

the team is the Visitor team

the team's previous game margin is between -100 and -10

the week number or round is 2 or 3 or 4 or 5

the game is played during the Regular or Postseason season

$3,156

WON

132-93-3

RECORD

59%

WIN%

View System

System: Early Season Upsets. This system is back again for Week 2. It went 4-3 SU in Week 1, all on underdogs, turning a profit. An early season divisional upsets system.

Matches: Patriots, Texans, Ravens, Steelers, Panthers

Early Season Upsets

the week number or round is 1 or 2 or 3

the spread is between 0 and 5.5

the team is the Dog

the game is a Division game

the game is played during the Regular season

$3,806

WON

86-88-2

RECORD

49%

WIN%

View System

System: Down & Dog. This system looks at teams who failed to cover the spread in Week 1 by 7 points or more and are again being doubted in Week 2 — which means they are being listed as an underdog after that bad performance a week ago.

Matches: Panthers, Seahawks, Vikings, Bears, Steelers

No Cover Zone

the game is played during the Regular or Postseason season

the team's game number is between 2 and 2

the team's previous game ATS margin is between -100 and -7

the team is the Dog

the game was played during the 2005-06 or 2006-07 or 2007-08 or 2008-09 or 2009-10 or 2010-11 or 2011-12 or 2012-13 or 2013-14 or 2014-15 or 2015-16 or 2016-17 or 2017-18 or 2018-19 or 2019-20 or 2020-21 or 2021-22 or 2022-23 or 2023-24 season

$1,440

WON

56-38-2

RECORD

60%

WIN%

View System

Below is the 2023 Anytime TD sheet — which encompasses every player to score a TD in 2023 so far and their total units for the entire season. Notes below from Gilles Gallant.

• Defenses came to play in Week 1. Seven Defense/Special Teams scores in Week 1, four of them in top-10 scorers.
• River Cracraft does it again! He was +15U in 2022.
• TD Scorers with minus odds in Week 1: 4-2 (66%).

Now for the "First TD data." Below is an updated tracking sheet for every player to score the first TD of the game this season, including players and odds for "team first TD" for each and every week in 2023.

• Defenses led the way for first TD scorers in Week 1. Cowboys and Eagles defenses had a combined 65 units up.
• The top first TD scorer in Week 1 for a player was Rashid Shaheed of the Saints at 25-1.
• For a first team TD scorer, Lil'Jordan Humphrey led the way with Denver's first TD against the Raiders at 30-1 odds.

League Trends ⤵️

Line Movement

How To Profit On It In 2023

• Following the line movement is 9-5 ATS so far in 2023 (ex. -5 to -6). This was 50 games under .500 ATS the previous two seasons.
• Teams with a line move of 2 pts or more (ex. -5 to -7) are 2-0 SU/ATS in 2023 with Lions/Bucs in Week 1.
• In games this season where the total rose from the opening to closing lines (ex. 55 to 55.5), the over went 2-0 in Week 1.
• In games this season where the total fell from the opening to closing lines (ex. 55.5 to 55), the under went 12-2 in Week 1.
  The market line movement has done an incredible job at predicting unders in the NFL recently. Since 2021, unders are 189-141-1 (57.3%) when the total has dropped between the opening and closing lines, with a $100 bettor up $3,209, a +$9.7% ROI.

Ignore The Fireworks

Fade High Scoring Teams

One thing history has taught us about Week 1. Not all scoring is consistent and don't believe everything you just saw. Since 2005, teams that scored 28 or more points in Week 1 have gone 57-84-4 ATS (40%) in Week 2.

Week 2 Matches: Cowboys, Jaguars, Rams, Packers, 49ers, Dolphins, Chargers.

Value in Small Dogs

Beware of Low Favorites

Small dogs excel in Weeks 1 & 2:
+ 1 to 5.5 point underdogs are 69-39-2 ATS (64%) since 2018 – 58% over the last decade.
+ 1 to 6.5 point underdogs are 110-71-4 ATS (61%) since 2016 – profitable ATS every single year the last seven years.

Not to mention, favorites of 1 to 3.5 are 235-287-20 ATS (-$6,392) in September the past 20 years – worst of any month. Second-worst? October.
These small favorites don’t perform well in the first three weeks. They are 93-129-4 ATS (42%) since 2014 – under .500 ATS each of the last nine seasons.

Wait, How Low?

Historically Low Totals

We've seen some low totals early on in the NFL season.

Super Bowl Futures ⤵️

Biggest Super Bowl Riser

Atlanta Falcons: 50-1 (ATL was 80-1 to win SB last week)

Biggest Super Bowl Faller

Carolina Panthers: 150-1 (CAR was 80-1 to win SB last week)

Win Total Tracker ⤵️

NFL Win Total Grid & Progress

Trending Up 📈
Eagles					1-0	Win Total: 11.5
49ers					1-0	Win Total: 10.5
Ravens					1-0	Win Total: 10.5
Browns					1-0	Win Total: 9.5
Cowboys					1-0	Win Total: 9.5
Dolphins					1-0	Win Total: 9.5
Jaguars					1-0	Win Total: 9.5
Jets					1-0	Win Total: 9.5
Saints					1-0	Win Total: 9.5
Lions					1-0	Win Total: 9.5
Falcons					1-0	Win Total: 8.5
Packers					1-0	Win Total: 7.5
Bucs					1-0	Win Total: 6.5
Commanders					1-0	Win Total: 6.5
Raiders					1-0	Win Total: 6.5
Rams					1-0	Win Total: 6.5

Trending Down 📉
Bengals					0-1	Win Total: 11.5
Chiefs					0-1	Win Total: 11.5
Bills					0-1	Win Total: 10.5
Chargers					0-1	Win Total: 9.5
Broncos					0-1	Win Total: 8.5
Seahawks					0-1	Win Total: 8.5
Steelers					0-1	Win Total: 8.5
Vikings					0-1	Win Total: 8.5
Bears					0-1	Win Total: 7.5
Giants					0-1	Win Total: 7.5
Panthers					0-1	Win Total: 7.5
Patriots					0-1	Win Total: 7.5
Titans					0-1	Win Total: 7.5
Colts					0-1	Win Total: 6.5
Texans					0-1	Win Total: 6.5
Cardinals					0-1	Win Total: 4.5

ATS Standings & Stat Sheet ⤵️

Award Betting Progress ⤵️

NFL Awards Matrix

	Leader	2nd In Odds	3rd In Odds
NFL MVP	Patrick Mahomes (+600)	Tua Tagovailoa (+700)	Jalen Hurts (+900)
Offensive POY	Tyreek Hill (+800)**	Christian McCaffrey (+1000)	Justin Jefferson (+1200)
Defensive POY	Micah Parsons (+400)	Myles Garrett (+600)	T.J. Watt (+750)
Offensive ROY	Bijan Robinson (+225)	Anthony Richardson (+500)	Jahmyr Gibbs (+800)
Defensive ROY	Will Anderson (+400)	Jalen Carter (+450)	Christian Gonzalez (+900)
Comeback POY	Damar Hamlin (-190)	Tua Tagovailoa (+600)	Calvin Ridley (+900)
Coach Of The Year	Dan Campbell (+700)	Matt Lefleur (+1200)	Arthur Smith (+1400)
** T. Hill (MIA): was +1800 to win OPOY last week. Updated as of September 12th

Full NFL betting awards listed via BetMGM:

• Kenny Pickett moved from 40-1 to win MVP to 125-1.
• Zach Wilson jumped from 250-1 to 150-1 to win MVP.
• Tyreek Hill is now the favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year at +800. He was 18-1 last week.

Trivia Instructions

To guess, click the answer at the bottom you think matches either the best (1st place), 2nd-best (2nd place) or 3rd-best (3rd place) for the listed trivia question, going from left to right — so you are guessing 1st place first.

When you have selected what you think is the best, hit submit. A green box means you are correct, a yellow box means that the answer is in another place in the game and a gray box means the answer is not on the list at all.

After completion, click the "share on Twitter" button to show off on social and share the question/answers.

Trivia Question

Guess the best QB ATS in Week 2 off a loss

First

Second

Third

Ryan FitzpatrickMatt RyanPhilip RiversJoe FlaccoDak PrescottTom Brady

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