NFL Week 16 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

Week 16 has arrived and we are three weeks away now from the playoffs. But, this week gives us something special. Not just Cowboys-Dolphins and Ravens-49ers, but SEVEN (!) primetime, island, standalone games. Let's ride!

Let's look at this week's slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to Week 16 of Action Network's NFL betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, December. 24, 1 p.m. ET.

Weekend of Fireworks

Best of the Best

What a weekend of action ahead. The first time since 1980 the top four teams in point differential all face off this late in the season.

For Ravens-49ers, it's the first time two teams with a share of the best record in the NFL met this late in the season since Cowboys-Giants in 1993.

The story of these games will be the Ravens and their status as an underdog.

A Dog Nevermore

In The Bay

Ravens are 19-5 ATS as an underdog since 2018 – the second-most profitable team ATS in the NFL in that span behind the Steelers. Ravens are 19-4 ATS in their last 23 games.

Lamar Jackson is 8-5 SU and 11-2 ATS as an underdog. If Jackson beats the Niners, he will join this list:

QBs four games above .500 SU as a dog last 20 years: Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, Patrick Mahomes.

Biggest Underdog of Lamar Jackson's NFL Career (80 total starts)
+6.5 — at Chiefs, 2018 (L, 27-24)
+5 — at 49ers, Monday
+4.5 — at Chiefs, 2019 (L, 33-28)

Purdy Good Look

New MVP Favorite

Brock Purdy is the sole favorite to win MVP. He is the sixth different player to be sole favorite to win MVP this season (Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa).

Purdy is the seventh different QB to be listed as the favorite or co-favorite to win the MVP award: Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Tagovailoa, Allen, Hurts, Prescott, Purdy

Weeks 1, 2: Mahomes | Weeks 3, 4: Tagovailoa | Week 5: Allen | Week 6: Mahomes | Week 7: Mahomes, Tagovailoa | Weeks 8-10: Mahomes | Weeks 11-13: Hurts | Week 14: Prescott, Purdy | Week 15: Prescott | Week 16: Purdy

Dog Monday's

Streaking

Seven consecutive underdogs have won outright on Monday Night Football entering this week — the longest streak in history.

Somebody Has To Win

Fraud Brothers

• Cowboys and Dolphins is the first game between teams with 20+ combined wins, but just one or fewer wins vs. teams above .500 SU.
• Dak Prescott is 6-13 straight up in his career on the road vs. over .500 SU teams. Since he was drafted, that's 114th of 116 QBs in moneyline profitability.
• Since 2021, Dolphins are 4-11 SU vs. teams above .500 SU and 19-8 SU vs. teams below .500 SU on the season.

The Dolphins haven't beaten a team with a winning record since they beat the Bills in Week 3 of last season. They are the only team without a win over a team with a winning record in this span (0-7 SU).

Back To Earth

Fun Trip

Twelve teams have now scored 60 pts or more since 1960.

Take out the 2023 Raiders (did it last week) and 1972 Bengals (did it in last game of season).

Teams after scoring 60+ pts in their previous game are 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS since 1970 merger and 2-8 SU, 1-9 ATS in the Super Bowl era.

Just In Time

Staley Out

Thirty-seven teams have fired their coach during the regular season since 2003. Those teams have gone 17-20 straight up (SU) and 21-16 against the spread (ATS).

A 56.8% ATS win rate might not look great, but those teams had an 98-253-3 SU record (27.9%) prior to the head coaching change. They also compiled a 130-218-5 ATS (37.4%) record prior to the coaching change.

Rah Rah

The Tomlin Spot

• Steelers after allowing 30 pts or more under Tomlin: 26-10-1 ATS, 2nd-best of any coach behind Belichick.
• Steelers are 43-28-1 ATS under Tomlin after failing to cover the spread by 7 points or more in their previous game.
• Under Tomlin, the Steelers are 19-6-1 ATS at home after allowing 30+ points
• Steelers off loss by double-digits: 22-12 ATS under Tomlin
• Steelers are 22-11 ATS as an underdog off a SU loss.

Red Flags

Low, Low, Low

These aren't the same Kansas City Chiefs.

• Second half unders are 12-2 in KC games this year.
• 4th quarter unders are 13-1 in KC games this year
• Chiefs are 4-10 against the fourth quarter spread this season and 18-36 4Q ATS the last three seasons.

Saints at Rams | Thursday, Dec 21

8:15pm ET | Amazon

LAR -4 | 45.5

Saints

• NFL first half unders are now 98-73-3 (57%) in night games since 2021, including 25-22-1 on Thursday Night Football and 34-19-1 on Monday Night Football in that span.
• Thursday home teams are just 32-36 SU, 26-42 ATS since 2020, including 23-37 ATS in night Thursday games (worst of any day of week for home teams at night). All other days of the week, 87-77-3 ATS.
• Bet home teams on Thursday night? Since 2020, they are only 30-30 SU. They are 99-68 SU (59%) on all other nights.
• When both teams are on short rest, the first half over is 63-45-3 (58%) in the last five years (2019), including 13-5 this season.
  Week 16: NO/LAR
• With a loss Sunday, the Saints will go under their preseason win total of 9.5
  Dennis Allen-coached teams are 0-4 toward the over on their preseason win total.
• Saints have now covered in consecutive games.
  Saints ATS recently: 4-10-1 in last 15 dating back to 2022
  Saints are 2-5 ATS at home this season. Only Washington has zero ATS wins at home this season (0-5-1 ATS)
• Road Warriors. Here are the Saints ML records over the past few seasons, home vs. road.
  Last three: Home: 10-12 SU | Road: 12-12 SU
  Last five: Home: 23-18 SU | Road: 25-15 SU
• Derek Carr is 13-15 SU, 14-11-3 ATS in night games in his career. 1-1 SU/ATS with the Saints.
  Carr is 1-6-2 ATS in night games as a favorite == 129th of 131 QBs last 20 years.
  Carr is 13-5-1 ATS in night games as an underdog == second of 199 QBs last 20 years.
• Dennis Allen in night games: 1-7 SU, 1-5-2 ATS
• In his career, Dennis Allen is 22-45 SU. His 32.8% win pct is ninth-worst among all head coaches in the Wild Card era.
• Allen-coached teams are just 4-15-2 ATS coming off a SU win in their last game.
  Last 20 years, he’s ranked 139th of 143 coaches ATS coming off a win.
• Dennis Allen is a bit better with some prep.
  Short rest: 1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS
  Normal rest: 12-28 SU, 14-26 ATS
  Extended rest + Week 1: 9-9 SU, 9-7-2 ATS
  He’s 13-36 SU, 16-33 ATS on short or normal rest as a head coach
• Allen has coached nine career games on short rest and his teams are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS.
• Allen is 24-40-2 ATS in his career as a coach.
  Allen’s 25-40-2 ATS mark is third-worst for any coach last 20 years:

1. Jon Gruden, 148. Mike Shanahan, 147. Dennis Allen

• In games where Carr is a favorite or a small underdog, his teams have struggled.
  As favorite or underdog of 3 points or less: 38-52-3 ATS
  Dog of more than 3 points: 34-30 ATS
• Derek Carr has a new HC-OC-QB coach regime now for the fifth time in his career this year, and is still struggling to cover the spread. 26-34-2 ATS in those previous four seasons and 4-9-1 ATS in 2023 with Saints.
  15: 8-8 ATS, 17: 5-8-2 ATS, 18: 6-10 ATS, 22: 7-8 ATS, 23: 4-9-1 ATS
• Saints were listed as home underdogs against the Lions, a better spot for Derek Carr.
  Favorite: 20-37-2 ATS (worst of all QBs last 20 years)
  Underdog: 52-45-1 ATS
• Carr is 22-36-2 ATS on the road/neutral since 2017, the least profitable road QB ATS in that span (123 of 123 QBs). He’s 24-25-1 ATS at home in that span.
• Carr is facing a defense allowing 21 PPG or more on the season with the Giants – he is 35-57-3 ATS in games vs. defenses allowing 21 PPG or more. Of the 262 QBs in Bet Labs database over the last 20 years, Carr is the least profitable ATS in this spot.
• Derek Carr covers vs. good defenses and tends to lose ATS vs. bad defenses. Based on how many PPG opposing defenses give up against Carr:
  Fewer than 21 PPG: 31-21 ATS
  21 PPG or more: 35-57-3 ATS

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Rams

• Rams have scored 28+ points now in four straight games.
  First time they’ve done that as a franchise since 2018 (six straight)
  49ers and Rams have the longest active streaks with four consecutive games
  Nine is the longest such streak for any team in the last five years (Tampa Bay)
• Matthew Stafford is 7-14-1 against the second half spread since the start of last season. Last five years, he is 24-41-2 2H ATS, the third-worst mark in the NFL, ahead of just Baker Mayfield and Justin Herbert.
• Stafford can’t hold a lead.
  He’s 33-58-2 2H ATS after leading at half, including 9-21-1 2H ATS since 2019
  He’s 48-47-6 2H ATS when trailing halftime.
• 2023 is the first season Stafford will finish above .500 ATS in a season since 2018 – he was 2-6-1 ATS last year, worst season since 2013. Stafford is 8-4-1 ATS this season.
• McVay/Stafford on short rest: 4-1 SU/ATS
• Sean McVay is 12-6 SU/ATS on short rest in his career as a coach, winning and covering eight of their last nine games on short rest. Since 2019, McVay is 11-3 ATS on short rest, the most profitable coach on short rest in the NFL.
• Stafford can’t beat good teams. He’s 33-67 SU and 38-60-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU – least profitable QB SU and ATS in this spot last 20 years.
  He is 10-10 SU and 8-12 ATS with Rams in this spot.
  When Stafford faces a team .500 SU or worse he is 58-37 SU and 49-43-4 ATS.
• When Stafford faces a “good” team at home (above .500 SU), he’s 20-34 ATS, including 9-18 ATS since 2017 and 4-8 ATS with the Rams.
  What about a bad team at home? 24-19 ATS, including 11-7 ATS since 2017 and 5-3 ATS with the Rams
• Stafford is 20-21-2 ATS with Rams – 4th-least profitable QB for franchise last 20 years: Bulger, Foles, Fitzpatrick
• Stafford is 13-21 SU, 14-19-1 ATS in night games.
  Stafford as a favorite at night: 9-14 SU, 7-6 ATS
  With Rams: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS
  As an underdog at night, Stafford is 4-17 SU, 7-13-1 ATS
  Of 192 QBs to make a start at night as an underdog, Stafford’s 7-13 ATS mark is second worst in the NFL
• Can’t forget about Mr. Backdoor himself, Sean McVay. He’s 20-14 SU, 17-15-2 ATS in night games. He’s 17-6 SU as a favorite and just 3-8 SU as an underdog.
• Sean McVay’s teams tend to perform better early in the season vs. late.
  Sept./Oct.: 36-17 SU
  Nov. and Later: 38-31 SU
• McVay is 26-17-1 ATS vs. NFC West & 37-38-3 ATS vs. all other divisions
  ARI: 12-2-1 ATS | SEA: 10-5 ATS (22-7-1 ATS combined)
  SF: 4-10 ATS
• This line opened Rams +1 and now lists them -4 and higher vs. Saints..
  McVay is one of a few coaches who usually win games when the line moves towards them (ex. -5 to -7).
  McVay is 47-19 SU and 36-27-3 ATS when the line moves towards his teams, including 23-7 SU at home.

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Bengals at Steelers | Saturday, Dec. 23

4:30pm ET | NBC

CIN -3 | 38.5

Bengals

• Both teams are playing on Saturday in consecutive weeks. This will be the eighth such matchup in the Wild Card era. The under is 5-2 in those games.
• Over .500 SU teams with a negative average SU point differential in Nov. or later are 147-179-13 ATS (45.1%) last 20 years.
  Week 16: CIN
• Teams coming off OT are now 130-160 SU (44.8%), 135-153-2 ATS (46.9%) last decade
  Week 16: MIN, HOU, TEN, CIN
• Teams off a win in OT are 64-77 SU (45%) and 63-77-1 ATS (45%) last decade.
  Week 16: CIN, HOU
• Jake Browning gets the start again for the Bengals with Joe Burrow out for the season.
  Browning got the big upset win over Jacksonville two weeks ago, followed it up with another win over the Colts, then another win over the Mullens-led Vikings. It’s worth noting Zac Taylor has done this before. In 2020, CIN upset Steelers as 14.5-point dogs without Burrow and then came back the next week and won again without him, beating the Texans as underdogs.
• During the Bengals' three-game win streak with Browning, he is 79-of-103 passing (76.7%) with a 9.3 Y/A.
  He is just the 12th QB in Wild Card era to go 3-0 SU with a 75% comp. % and a 9.3 Y/A or higher and first since Joe Burrow in 2022.
• CIN strange season: Began 1-3. Won four straight. Lost three straight. Won three straight.
• Zac Taylor with and without Joe Burrow
  With: 34-24-1 SU, 36-22-1 ATS
  Without: 7-20 SU, 12-14-1 ATS
• Inexperienced QBs vs. Steelers.
  QBs in their first five career starts are 13-35 SU in Pittsburgh – but they are 2-1 SU last five years: 2022 Tyler Huntley, 2023 Will Levis, 2023 Bailey Zappe.
• Taylor after Bengals allow 14 points or less in previous game: 7-4 SU, 6-4-1 ATS
• Entering the season, the Bengals had more expectations on themselves than most.
  Bengals had a win total of 11.5 in the preseason. Their first double-digit win total since 1989 (ends second-longest drought w/o double-digit win total in NFL – DET).
• During Burrow’s tenure, Bengals have gone to a backup QB in starts with Ryan Finley and Brandon Allen and now Browning. They’ve gone 6-9 SU, 7-6-2 ATS. Burrow is 36-22-1 ATS in his career.
  Since he was drafted, Burrow is the second-most profitable QB ATS in the NFL behind only Jared Goff
• Bengals had a league-low 49 points through four games. One out of 64 teams to score under 50 points in first four games have made the playoffs since 1990 (1992 Chargers)
• Browning’s 76% completion percentage is the highest completion percentage by a QB in his first four career starts with his many attempts (129) since 1950. Minimum 100 attempts, he is second behind Chad Pennington (121 att., 76.9%)
• Zac Taylor vs. PIT, Tomlin
  4-5 SU/ATS
  2-1 SU/ATS as favorite (favorite in three of last four games)
• Taylor vs. AFC North SU, ATS: 10-19 SU, 13-16 ATS
  Road vs. AFC North: 3-11 SU, 7-7 ATS
  Zac Taylor has been abysmal on the road in the division, going 3-11 SU, although he has been able to cover the spread 50% of the time. He has won one of the past six games in this spot.

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Steelers

• Steelers offense recently
  Steelers with Canada: 16.6 PPG – 6-4 SU record
  Pittsburgh since firing Canada: 14.2 PPG – 1-3 SU record
• Mason Rudolph has made 10 career starts. He's had multiple TD passes five times.
  Kenny Pickett has made 24 career starts. He's had multiple TD passes once.
• Underdogs in AFC North divisional games have been a cash cow. They are 69-49-3 ATS (58.5%) last decade, best of any division and 22-12 ATS last three seasons.
• "Bet dogs in low total games…" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 183-129-9 ATS (59%) since 2018 & 97-75–6 ATS (56%) last two years.
  Week 16: PIT, NE, WAS, CAR, LV
• What an odd schedule for Pittsburgh. They are coming off a Thursday night game, into back-to-back Saturday games. First time in the Wild Card era with those games on those three days in a row.
  Underdogs play back-to-back Saturday games are 11-29 SU in the second game.
• The Steelers are 10-2 in their last 12 one-score games and 12-3 over their last 15 one-score games. Even dating back to 2021, Pittsburgh is 22-9-1 in one-score games.
• Steelers were the first team since 1933, when the NFL began tracking rushing and receiving statistics, to be out-gained in each of their first eight games and still have a winning record – they did it through 10 games.
  Weeks 12 and 13 PIT out-gained their opponent in yards. In Week 14 and 15 they were back to being out-gained.
• 19 consecutive non-losing seasons (T-NE 2001-19 w/ 19 – DAL has record; 21, 1965-85 under Landry). Currently 7-7 SU in 2023.
  16 under Tomlin to begin coaching career (NFL record)
• Steelers under Mike Tomlin without Ben Roethlisberger: 37-26-3 ATS.
  Steelers under Tomlin without Big Ben or Pickett: 22-17-3 ATS
• Steelers are 31-50-1 1H ATS last five seasons under Tomlin, making him worst coach 1H ATS in that span, including 3-11 in 2023.
• Steelers offensive production.
  Matt Canada in Pittsburgh: 45 total games, zero games with 400 yards of offense, two games with 30 points.
  Eddie Faulkner comparison: Steelers are 25th in EPA/play offense since firing Canada, have one game of 400 yards or more, zero games of 30+ pts.
• Since the start of last season, Steelers have two games of multiple passing TDs, fewest in NFL. Next-closest is Panthers with five. As comparison, the rest of their division have 38 games combined.
• As a favorite this season, Steelers are 3-3 ATS. Pittsburgh rarely covers as favorites in consecutive years. They were 4-2 ATS last year as favorites. Last back-to-back years above .500 ATS as favorites for Pittsburgh was in 2004-05.
• Over the last two seasons, Steelers are 15-9 SU/ATS with TJ Watt, 1-6 SU without him (2-4-1 ATS).
• Since T.J. Watt’s first game in 2017, Steelers are 67-46-2 SU, 59-54-2 ATS.
  They’ve played without him for just 11 games. Pittsburgh is 1-10 SU, 4-6-1 ATS in those games.
  Which means they are 65-36-2 SU, 54-48-1 ATS with Watt.
• Trubisky is 31-28 SU, 27-29-3 ATS in his career.
  Trubisky has made 7 starts for Steelers – 2-5 SU, 2-4-1 ATS
  Trubisky is 0-4 SU at home in Pittsburgh for the Steelers
  Trubisky is 3-12-2 ATS in his last 17 home starts for the Steelers and Bears.
• Steelers are going to a backup QB for the 28th time in the last decade this week.
  They are 14-12-1 SU/ATS in those games — If you remove the 14 games they had a backup start in 2019, they are 6-6-1 SU, 5-7-1 ATS with a backup last decade.
  Backup QBs: Micthell Trubisky, Mason Rudolph, Devlin Hodges, Landry Jones, Michael Vick
  Mason Rudolph SU/ATS: 5-4-1 SU and 7-3 ATS
  At home: 4-1-1 SU, 4-2 ATS
  Played five games in 2019 and went 4-1 SU/ATS
  One game since in 2021, 16-16 tie vs Lions
  Second most profitable QB under Tomlin behind Pickett
  With a backup QB at home: 9-6-1 SU, 7-8-1 ATS last decade
• Steelers after allowing 30 pts or more under Tomlin: 26-10-1 ATS, 2nd-best of any coach behind Belichick.
• Steelers are 43-28-1 ATS under Tomlin after failing to cover the spread by 7 points or more in their previous game.
  Under Tomlin, the Steelers are 19-6-1 ATS at home after allowing 30+ points
• Steelers off loss by double-digits: 22-12 ATS under Tomlin
• Steelers are 22-11 ATS as asn underdog off a SU loss.

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Bills at Chargers | Saturday, Dec. 23

8:00pm ET | Peacock

BUF -12.5 | 44.5

Bills

• Bills would go under their preseason win total of 10.5 with a loss this week.
  Currently 8-6 SU, 6-8 ATS
  When the Bills offense plays well, the defense tends to show up as well. 10-4 to the under this season
  Bills are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games, including 6-9 ATS in their last 15 games
  Bills 13-18-1 ATS mark since start of last year is tied for the 5th-worst in the NFL (TB)
• Josh Allen is 15-8 SU, 11-12 ATS in night games, including 8-2 SU at home, but just 7-6 SU away from home.
  Allen is 12-5 SU as a favorite at night and only 3-3 SU as a dog
• Josh Allen has broken his INT streak. He had thrown an INT in nine straight games heading into matchup vs Cowboys — the first time he’s done that in the regular season in his career.
  The record for INT in the last 20 years is 12 done by five different players
  December 19-28, 2020: last time Josh Allen didn’t have a turnover in consecutive regular season starts.
  Regular Season:
  He has 74 INT since 2018, most in NFL
  He has 56 fumbles since 2018, most in NFL.
• Josh Allen has 64 wins in his career — 47 of those 64 wins have been by 7 points or more.
• Josh Allen is 3-5 ATS as a favorite of 7 points or more on short rest
• Under is 27-17-2 in Josh Allen road games in his career — eighth-best to the under on the road in the last 20 years, including 11-3 last two seasons.
• Allen has played 10 games as a 13-point favorite or higher, he is 10-1 SU, 5-4-2 ATS. Only loss to Jaguars as 16-pt favorite.
• Bills have lost six straight night games ATS and five straight night games at home ATS
  Second-worst ATS profitability in night games in last two years (-$434), ahead of only the Chiefs: -$435
• Allen has really succeeded on normal rest in his career.
  Allen is 32-20-3 ATS on seven days rest (11th-most profitable QB ATS last 20 years in this spot)
  He’s 8-9-1 ATS on short rest and 6-12-1 ATS on extended rest.
• The biggest advantage in Buffalo? Might just be the Bills second half. Under Josh Allen, the Bills are 58-37-3 against the second half spread. Since 2005, he’s the second-most profitable QB on the second half spread of 257 QBs.
• Josh Allen is 0-6 in overtime. The Bills as a franchise are now 3-12 SU (20%) in overtime since 2010, worst win percentage of any team.
• Teams going from EST to PST to play on the road have performed well recently – going 73-52-5 ATS (58.4%) since 2016.
  Week 16: BUF, BAL
• Good third down teams tend to cover the spread. In November or later, teams with a 45% third down rate or higher, facing a team who is below that threshold, is 321-257-20 ATS (55.5%) last 20 years.
  Week 16: BUF, DAL, KC, SF, PHI

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Chargers

• Fewest SU wins, teams with win total of 8.5 or more
  Jets – 5
  Chargers – 5
• 37 teams have fired their coach during the regular season since 2003. Those teams have gone 17-20 straight up (SU) and 21-16 against the spread (ATS).
  A 56.8% ATS win rate might not look fantastic, but those teams had an 94-254-3 SU record (27%) prior to the head coaching change. They also compiled a 127-217-6 ATS (36.9%) record prior to the coaching change.
• The Chargers have played 32 games since the start of last season, and 21 of them have finished within seven points.
  22 of the Chargers last 33 games have been decided by 7 points or less dating back to the Week 18, 2021 Raiders loss.
• Here is how teams perform off big losses over the past decade (opp. not off same loss margin)
  20+: 212-168-7 ATS (55.9%)
  30+: 57-54-1 ATS (51.4%)
  40+: 9-8-2 ATS (52.9%)
• Teams to lose by 20+ the week before, facing a team who didn’t, are 91-64-1 ATS (59%) since 2020.
  Week 16: LAC, DEN, DAL, NYJ
• Off big losses vs. divisional opponents last decade: 65-58-2 ATS (146-108-5 ATS when coming off big loss vs. non-division opp.)
  Off a big loss, on extended rest: 36-36-1 ATS (eight days or more | 176-131-6 ATS on short or normal rest
• Teams to allow 40+ points in their previous game are 22-13-2 ATS in the last two seasons
  50+: 6-0-1 ATS in the last three seasons
  60+: Only happened twice in NFL in last 20 years
  2023: Broncos -3 vs Bears: W, 31-28
  2011: Colts +9 vs Titans: L, 27-10
• Chargers 2H ATS this season: 3-9-2
  Staley 2H ATS career: 14-31-4
• Easton Stick got the start for the Chargers on Thursday Night Football. He is just the fourth different starting QB for the Chargers since 2006 — the fewest of any NFL team in that span (Packers, with seven, have the second-fewest).
• Since 2003, 37 teams have fired their coach during the regular season. Those teams have gone 17-20 straight up (SU) and 21-16 against the spread (ATS) in the following game.
  A 56.8% ATS win rate might not look great, but those teams had an 98-253-3 SU record (27.9%) prior to the head coaching change. They also compiled a 130-218-5 ATS (37.4%) record prior to the coaching change.
• Justin Herbert is 30-33 SU career. Four yrs as QB.
  Def points rank: 23, 29, 21, 27th this season
  Def yards rank: 10, 23, 20, 29th this season
  Chargers top-15 both on offense in points every year with Herbert entering the week of his injury in 2023.
• Big home dogs are on a run. Home dogs of 7 points or more:
  59-38-1 ATS (60.8%) since 2020.
  21-11-1 ATS since start of last year.
  55% ATS hit rate last 20 years
• Teams that lose by 17 or more playing a team that won by 17 or more the previous week are 111-76-4 ATS (59%) the ensuing week over the last 20 years.
  Week 16: LAC, DAL
• Chargers are coming off a road game in Vegas. Teams after playing the Raiders on the road since they moved to Las Vegas are just 10-20-1 ATS since 2020, that is the second-worst mark of any previous road team in the NFL in that span (worst is Atlanta at 9-20-1 ATS).
• Teams as double-digit underdogs after big losses last 20 years
  35+: 19-4-1 ATS
  28+: 33-22-1 ATS
  20+: 77-63-1 ATS

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Colts at Falcons | Sunday, Dec. 24

1:00pm ET | FOX

ATL -2.5 | 44.5

Colts

• Colts have recorded a takeaway in 19 straight games, longest active streak
  Longest streak since Dolphins did it in 26 straight in 2019-21
• Colts are 11-3 to the team total over – most team total overs by any team this season. One of three teams with 10+ team total overs this season: IND, CLE, DAL
  Colts went 5-12 on team total overs last season
• Still Minshew time in Indy. Minshew is 8-12 SU, 9-11 ATS in “toss up” games – a spread of 4 points or less
  Minshew is 7-13 SU in his last 20 starts. He’s 8-12 ATS in his last 20 starts.
• Minshew is 5-9 SU vs. defenses allowing 21 PPG or less on the season.
• Here is how Colts QBs stack up this season (ranks min. 50 QB plays; of 53 QBs)
  Minshew: 26th EPA/play, 30th success rate, 26th completion percentage
  Richardson: 21st EPA/play, 32nd success rate, 45th completion percentage
• Colts got Jonathan Taylor back in the mix a bit, but he is now sidelined for a few weeks.
  Colts when Taylor gets 10+ carries: 24-19-1 SU
  Fewer than 10 carries or doesn’t play: 8-13 SU
• Minshew has found magic with Colts head coach Shane Steichen. Prior to this season, Minshew had never won three straight games. Minshew and the Colts rattled off four-straight and have won five of their past six to find themselves second in the AFC South and currently in the final spot of the AFC Playoffs.
• Minshew has faced eight teams above .500 SU in his career, his teams are 2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS.
• Minshew has played three games outside of Week 1 with 10+ days of prep. He is 2-1 SU/ATS, but his teams average 26 PPG.
  Minshew on extended rest: 2-2 SU/ATS
• Minshew success as Colts QB: 6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS
• Colts are 6-4 SU playing Minshew as the backup this season. Between 2017-22, the Colts were 4-14 SU with a backup.
  Colts QBs have struggled in the back up role. They are 10-18 SU (15-13 ATS) since 2017. Colts backup 2017-22: 4-14 SU, 8-10 ATS. In 2023: 6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS.
• When Minshew’s opponent scores more than 20 points, he is now 2-17 SU after losing to the Bengals last week.
• Minshew is 9-11 SU when he throws 2+ passing TDs in a game in his career.
• Colts had the fourth-worst Super Bowl odds of any team at 100-1 entering the season (ARI, TB, HOU, IND).
  Their 3rd time at 100-1 or higher since 2000 (2023, 2017, 2012).
  Not to mention, their win total of 6.5 was their lowest since 2012.
  Colts are 8-6 SU this year entering Week 16.
• Minshew as favorite vs. underdog
  Favorite: 8-4 SU/ATS
  Underdog: 6-16 SU, 9-13 ATS
• Bet “small, bad, road dogs” … teams to open as a dog of 7 points or less road/neutral, who won five games or less the previous year, are 359-255-10 ATS (58.5%) last 20 years.
  Week 16: IND, ARI

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Falcons

• Atlanta is currently a 1-point favorite in their Week 16 matchup vs. Colts. Each game the Falcons have played in this season has had a spread of less than 4 points. Previously in the Super Bowl era, the longest such streak to start a season was eight games (2004, Washington).
• Falcons are on a two-game SU losing streak now. Their third separate losing streak of the year. They are 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS in that spot this season.
• Falcons are 4-10 ATS this season, the second-worst record in the NFL behind the Patriots
• The seesaw QB battle race in Atlanta is back to Taylor Heineke (ranks min. 50 QB plays; of 53 QBs)
  Ridder: 37th EPA/play, 19th success rate, 31st completion percentage
  Heinicke: 22nd EPA/play, 33rd success rate, 46th completion percentage
• List of QBs Falcons have faced this season:
  Wins: Carr, Boyle, Stroud, Love, Mayfield, Bryce Young
  Losses: Mayfield, Young, Goff, J. Hall, Murray, Howell, Lawrence, Levis,
• Falcons are 5-7-2 on the first half moneyline this season
• Falcons are 6-13-4 1H ML, 6-17 1H ATS in their last 23 games.
  Their 10-21 1H ATS last two seasons is the worst in NFL
  After starting the season 0-6 1H ATS and 1-8 1H ATS, Falcons are 4-1 1H ATS in their last five games.
• Falcons are 19-31-1 ATS vs. non-NFC South divisions since 2019, worst mark in the NFL.
• Falcons have struggled ATS recently.
  They are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 games overall dating back to last season.
  3-10 ATS last 13 games.
• Arthur Smith teams tend to fade late.
  Sept-Oct: 11-12 ATS
  Nov. on: 8-16-1 ATS
  Smith is 6-6 ATS in first four games of the season — his teams are 13-22-1 ATS in Game 5 forward.
• Arthur Smith is 11-12 SU, 7-16 ATS at home as a head coach (9-16 SU, 12-12-1 ATS road/neutral) – Worst Falcons HC ATS at home last 20 years
• Falcons are 12-14 ATS after a SU loss under Arthur Smith. An average team. After a win, not so much.
  Falcons are 5-14 SU, 5-13-1 ATS after a SU win under Smith.
• Falcons continue their journey have playing zero games this season with a positive rest differential vs. their opponent.
  Played on road before game in London (Week 3, 4) – they lost at Lions.
  Seven of their last 11 games are on the road — they are 3-5 SU in this stretch.
  Three of their last four games are on the road — they are 0-1 SU in this stretch.

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Packers at Panthers | Sunday, Dec. 24

1:00pm ET | FOX

GB -4 | 39

Packers

• Packers off a SU loss this season: 3-4 SU/ATS
• LaFleur is 49-36 ATS in his career as Packers coach.
• LaFleur has excelled as an underdog. He is 19-10 ATS as a ‘dog — 12-5 with Rodgers and 7-5 with Jordan Love. As a favorite, LaFleur is 30-26 ATS.
• How does LaFleur’s teams perform vs. bad teams?
  Vs. under .500 SU: 22-12 SU, 16-18 ATS
  Vs. 33% SU or less: 17-8 SU, 12-13 ATS
• Packers are 4-2 SU/ATS as a road favorite after a SU loss under LaFleur
• LaFleur is now 16-2 SU, 10-8 ATS in December games.
  LaFleur is 39-28 SU in all other months. In January, LaFleur is just 5-5 SU.
• Love is 4-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU and 2-5 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU
• Fewest games favored in season for Packers since 1990
  3 – 2023 (1-2 ATS)
  2 – 1991 (0-2 ATS)
  3 – 1992 (2-1 ATS)
  5 – 2006 (2-3 ATS)
  5 – 2005 (1-3-1 ATS)
  6 – 1990 (2-4 ATS)
  6 – 2017 (4-2 ATS)
• Jordan Love has been streaky has an NFL QB.
  Started 4-0 ATS, 4-7 ATS since.
  Love has closed as a favorite three times in his 14 start career (1-2 SU/ATS).
• Packers were plus money (+165) to make the playoffs in the preseason for the first time since 2009 (+100) – they made the playoffs that season.
  Packers are now +260 to make the playoffs after being -215 two weeks ago. GB has a 6-8 SU record.
• Jordan Love is 2-5 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and 4-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU.
• The Packers went 5-6 SU as favorites under LaFleur last season. They are 1-2 SU this year. Between 2019-21, Packers were 33-9 SU as a favorite under LaFleur.
• Much has been made about the Packers' success without Aaron Rodgers this year. Here is a comparison to other teams after losing a QB who ranks top 10 all-time in wins and how they did the year after. Of the 11 QBs, 10 won at least six games the next season. The one team didn’t was the Colts in 2011 who went 2-14 SU. (They went 11-5 SU the following year with Andrew Luck.)

Most QB Wins All-Time
1. Tom Brady -> 2020 NE, 7-9 SU
2. Brett Favre -> 2008 GB, 6-10 SU
3. Peyton Manning -> 2011 IND, 2-14 SU
4. Drew Brees -> 2021 NO, 9-8 SU
5. Ben Roethlisberger -> 2022 PIT, 9-8 SU
6. John Elway -> 1999 DEN, 6-10 SU
7. Aaron Rodgers -> 2023 GB, 6-8 SU
8. Dan Marino -> 2000 MIA, 11-5 SU
9. Philip Rivers -> 2020 SD, 7-9 SU
10. Matt Ryan -> 2022 ATL, 7-10 SU
10. Fran Tarkenton -> 1979 MIN, 7-9 SU

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Panthers

• The Panthers haven't run one play in which they're leading in the fourth quarter. Both wins came on the final play of the game, when they were trailing. No team since at least 1991 has gone an entire season without leading in the fourth quarter at the beginning of any play.
• "Bet dogs in low total games…" == NFL underdogs in games with a total below 42 are 183-129-9 ATS (59%) since 2018 & 97-75–6 ATS (56%) last two years.
  Week 16: PIT, NE, WAS, CAR, LV
• Teams that win as underdogs the week before, are listed as underdogs again and have a win percentage below 40% are 134-165-8 ATS (44.8%) last 20 years.
  Week 16: CAR
• It is smart to fade bad teams off a recent win. Teams that are 1-4 SU in their previous five games, coming off a win are 79-140-1 SU (36.1%) last 20 years. 0-8 SU this season and 3-17 SU last two years.
  Week 16: CAR, SEA
• Panthers are coming off just their second win last week. Teams coming off a win, who have struggled mightily lately have lost the following week.
  Teams coming off a SU win, who are 1-6 SU in their last seven games, are 26-48-1 SU in their next game.
• Panthers are one of two teams to be listed as underdogs in all of their games so far this season along with the Cardinals.
• Panthers are 10-4 against first quarter spread this season, including 5-1 1Q ATS at home. Panthers are 19-7 1Q ATS the past three seasons.
  Panthers 2Q ATS: 4-10 ATS
  Panthers 1H ATS: 6-8 ATS
• Bryce Young is 2-11 SU so far this season. Since 2000, No. 1 overall QB picks are 64-131-2 SU in their first season.
• Panthers at home this season: 2-4 SU, 2-3-1 ATS
  Panthers have really struggled on the road recently. Panthers are 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS on the road this season, failing to cover the spread by 6.31 PPG and losing by 12.25 PPG.
  Worst SU this season: CAR 0-8, TEN/ARI 1-6
  Worst ATS this season: CAR 2-6 ATS, NYG 2-6 ATS, TEN 2-5 ATS
  Panthers are 9-16 ATS last three seasons, the worst mark in the NFL

Highest Team O/U — Drafted QB 1st Overall (since 1990)
1992 Giants/Dave Brown – 9 (Supplemental Draft) (6-10 SU)
2023 Panthers/Bryce Young – 7.5 (2-11 SU)
2016 Rams/Jared Goff – 7.5 (4-12 SU)

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Browns at Texans | Sunday, Dec. 24

1:00pm ET | CBS

CLE -3 | 40

Browns

• Can clinch playoff berth with:

CLE win + CIN & DEN & BUF & IND loss + MIA win OR
CLE win + PIT & DEN & BUF loss + MIA win OR
CLE win + PIT & JAC & BUF loss + MIA & IND win OR
CLE win + PIT & JAC & DEN loss + IND win OR
CLE win + PIT & JAC & BUF loss + KC & IND win OR
CLE win + PIT & DEN & IND loss + MIA win OR
CLE win + PIT & DEN & JAC loss + MIA win

• Joe Flacco now has seven passing TDs this season in 12 quarters. Kenny Pickett has six passing TDs in 12 games.
  Zach Wilson has 8 pass TDs this season in 368 attempts. Flacco has seven in 133 attempts.
• With Deshaun Watson now gone for the season with shoulder surgery, another week of a backup QB in Cleveland.
  Browns will start a backup QB for the 59th time in the last decade this week. They are 21-38 SU, 28-30-1 ATS in those games.
  Browns have actually done a good job in these games lately going 6-7 SU and 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 games with a backup.
  Under Stefanski, Browns are 10-12 SU, 12-9-1 ATS with a backup QB.
• Here is how Browns QBs stack up this season (ranks min. 50 QB plays; of 53 QBs)
  Watson: 31st EPA/play, 38th success rate, 41st completion percentage
  Flacco: 47th EPA/play, 44th success rate, 48th completion percentage
  DTR: 45th EPA/play, 45th success rate, 50th completion percentage
  Walker: 50th EPA/play, 48th success rate, 53rd completion percentage
• Stefanski with Browns
  Favorite: 25-10 SU, 15-20 ATS
  Dog: 10-20 SU, 16-13-1 ATS
• Browns are 14-13-1 ATS after a loss under Stefanski.
  Browns are 13-20 SU, 14-19 ATS after a SU win under Stefanski
  Browns are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games after a SU win.
• Browns are 12-11 SU, 8-15 ATS vs. AFC North under Kevin Stefanski. Of the 146 head coaches over past 20 years to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is 140th.
  Stefanski is 23-18-1 ATS against non-AFC North teams.
• The Browns pass defense has been unreal.
  Fewest pass yds allowed thru 14 games since 2019 49ers and 2006 Raiders/Colts
  Their 195 first downs allowed thru 14 games is fewest for any team since 2000 Ravens.
• Browns rush offense since Nick Chubb’s injury. Since Week 3:
  Browns are 19th in NFL in rush EPA and 19th in rush success.
• Browns defense
  105 pts allowed at home in eight games (13.1, lowest NFL)
  184 pts allowed on road in six games (30.7, highest NFL)
• Flacco in road games recently:
  Since 2019, Flacco is 2-7 SU, 5-4 on the road
  Flacco career SU/ATS in Cleveland. 13 total games started. 11-2 SU, 10-2-1 ATS.
• Flacco in his career SU/ATS…
  Home: 65-29 SU, 45-47-2 | Road/Neutral: 46-58 SU, 53-45-6 ATS
• The Browns have never seen the type of success this season with the same type of expectations. The 2023 Browns have their most SU wins in a season with a win total of 9 or more since moving to Cleveland in 1999 and their next win would be their most in a season with 40-1 preseason Super Bowl odds or shorter since 2002 (also 9).

Browns Highest Win Total Since Moving to Cleveland in 1999 (Wins)
10.5: 2021 (8)
9: 2023 (9-5 SU)
9: 2019 (6)

Browns SU record with Super Bowl odds of 40-1 or shorter since 1990:
2023: 9-5 SU
2022: 7-10
2021: 8-9
2019: 6-10
2008: 4-12
2003: 5-11
2002: 9-7
1995: 5-11
1993: 7-9
1992: 7-9
1990: 3-13

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Texans

• Texans first-year head coach Demeco Ryans and rookie quarterback CJ Stroud are just outside the playoff picture in the AFC. Last rookie head coach and quarterback to make it to the playoffs? Chuck Pagano and Andrew Luck with Colts in 2012.
• CJ Stroud currently is third in yards per game at 279. Rookies to lead the NFL in passing yards per game in NFL History — minimum 75 pct of team games played — Davey O’Brien — 120.4 in 1939 & Sammy Baugh — 102.5 in 1937
• Texans are up to 8 SU wins this season, that is their most in a year in the last four seasons.
  2023: 8-6 SU | 2020-22: 11-38-1 SU
• Texans don’t play in primetime this season – 16 of 17 games all starting at 1 p.m. ET, including remainder of games prior to Week 18.
• Stroud has made 13 starts in his NFL career. He’s 5-2 ATS as an underdog and 1-5 ATS as a favorite.
  He’s excelled in the first half, going 8-5 1H ATS this season.
  In the 1H, Stroud is 6-1 ATS as a dog, 2-4 ATS as a favorite
• Texans vs. good defenses this season: 4-3 ATS vs. teams allowing 21 PPG or less. 3-3 ATS vs. teams allowing more than that.
  Vs defenses that allow less than 21 ppg, Texans are 4-3 SU/ATS
• Texans home vs. road this season
  Home: 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS
  Road: 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS
• How do the Texans do after facing Titans under Vrabel: 3-5 SU, 3-4-1 ATS
  How do teams do overall after facing Vrabel: 51-49 SU, 51-45-4
• Hard to shake the past. Teams with four wins or less the year prior, who are listed as a favorite the following year are 215-256-14 ATS (45.5%) last 20 years, including 40-51-2 ATS (44%) last five years.
  Week 16: CHI, HOU
• Teams coming off OT are now 130-160 SU (44.8%), 135-153-2 ATS (46.9%) last decade
  Week 16: MIN, HOU, TEN, CIN
• Teams off a win in OT are 64-77 SU (45%) and 63-77-1 ATS (45%) last decade.
  Week 16: CIN, HOU

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Seahawks at Titans | Sunday, Dec. 24

1:00pm ET | CBS

SEA -3 | 42

Seahawks

• It is smart to fade bad teams off a recent win. Teams 1-4 SU in their last five games, coming off a win are 79-140-1 SU (36.1%) last 20 years. 0-8 SU this season and 3-17 SU last two years.
  Week 16: CAR, SEA
• Teams playing on road on short rest, after a SU win in their previous game as an underdog are 30-71 SU (29.7%) last 20 years.
  Week 16: SEA
• Teams with a negative SU point differential, who are over .500 ATS later in the season (game 9 on), are 127-154-6 ATS (45.2%) since 2015.
  Week 16: SEA, LV
• Seahawks have just five fumbles as a team this season — fewest in the NFL by three ahead of the Bengals.
• Pete Carroll teams usually start slow before they get going:
  Carroll in Weeks 1 & 2: 11-16-1 ATS
  Carroll in Week 3 on: 114-94-7 ATS
• + Seahawks playing at 1p ET or earlier under Pete Carroll
  23-12 SU (66%) with Russell Wilson
  16-35 SU (31%) with all other QBs
• Pete Carroll is 57-40-3 ATS as an underdog. Carroll has been .500 ATS or better as an underdog in seven straight years leading up to this season (5-3 ATS in 2023)
• Geno Smith is 22-17-2 ATS as a dog, but only 10-13 ATS as a favorite.
• Here is how Geno Smith has performed on extended rest.
  Week 1s: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS
  In-Season: 4-9 SU, 7-6 ATS
• Drew Lock career SU/ATS: 9-14 SU, 14-9 ATS
  Home: 6-5 SU, 8-3 ATS | Road: 3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS
  Lock had lost seven straight starts SU entering last week. With his last win coming on 12/13/20.
• Drew Lock off a SU win: 2-5 ATS
• Seahawks backup QB stats. In the last 10 years, Seattle has needed to start a back up QB just five times. Twice the last two weeks vs. 49ers and Eagles and three times under Geno Smith in 2021. Seahawks are 2-3 SU in those games, but 5-0 ATS.
• Against under .500 SU opponents, Pete Carroll is 27-20 ATS at home and 23-28-2 ATS on the road.
• Teams on the road off a win as a home dog in their last game: 205-240-6 ATS (46.1%) last 20 years.

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Titans

• Titans are coming off an overtime game last week.
  Teams coming off OT are now 130-160 SU (44.8%), 135-153-2 ATS (46.9%) last decade
  Week 16: MIN, HOU, TEN, CIN
  Teams coming off an OT loss at home, playing at home again are 25-16 SU since 2001.
• Will Levis career. 3-5 SU/ATS
  Home: 2-2 SU/ATS | Road: 1-3 SU/ATS
  Vs. AFC South: 0-3 SU/ATS | non-AFC South opp: 3-2 SU/ATS
• Levis is 1-7 straight up 2H and against the second half spread in his 8 starts.
• Of 45 quarterbacks with at least 100 plays this season, the Titans' rookie quarterback has a completion rate of 61%, which is 42nd of those 45 QBs. Only ones worse? Joe Flacco, Dorian Thompson-Robinson and PJ Walker.
• Derrick Henry had a really bad game last week. Henry became the first player in league history to record 20 or more touches and register less than 15 yards from scrimmage.
  Titans are just 15-20-1 ATS after rushing for fewer than 100 yards in their previous game under Vrabel.
• Titans have now gone 33 straight games without scoring 30 points.
  Longest active streak in the NFL and longest streak in franchise history
  NYG streak of 43 straight games was last one broken this high in 2022.
• Vrabel is 38-29 SU in Sept, Oct & Nov. in his career (17-17 SU in Dec. on).
• Vrabel off a SU loss vs. AFC South: 6-6 SU/ATS
• Vrabel vs. teams on short rest: 7-8 SU/ATS
• Vrabel 8-5 SU/ATS as home dog of 3 points or more
• Vrabel as a dog: 26-27 SU, 29-23-1 ATS
  Home dog: 12-9 SU/ATS
• Vrabel as a home dog: 12-8 SU/ATS
  7-4 SU since 2021
• Vrabel as an underdog: 26-28 SU, 29-23-1 ATS, including 26-15-1 ATS when the spread is +3 or higher.
  In 6 seasons with Titans, Vrabel has never finished a season below .500 ATS as an underdog (5-6 ATS this season).
• Vrabel is 14-11-1 ATS as an underdog off of a SU loss. He’s covered 5-3 in his last eight games in this spot.
• In close spread games, Mike Vrabel has performed well. Spread of 3 or less: 21-19 SU, 19-19-2 ATS, including 4-4 ATS in that spot this season.
• Teams that allowed at least seven sacks in their previous game are 91-119-5 ATS (43.3%) in their next game over the last 20 years.
  Week 16: TEN, NYG

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Commanders at Jets | Sunday, Dec. 24

1:00pm ET | CBS

NYJ -3 | 37

Commanders

• Ron Rivera has been an NFL head coach for 12 seasons. His teams have finished .500 or worse in nine of his 12 seasons.
• Sam Howell is second in the NFL in completions this season, seventh in passing yards, 13th in pass TDs, ninth in 1st down completions — all while taking the most sacks of any QB in the NFL.
• Sam Howell has been sacked 59 times so far this season, most of any QB in the NFL.The NFL record for sacks taken in a season is 76, set by David Carr for the Texans in 2002, their first year in the NFL.

Most Times Sacked as QB — Through 14 Games
70 — David Carr, 2002
67 – Randall Cunningham, 1986
64 — David Carr, 2005
60 – Steve Beuerlein, 2000
59 — Sam Howell, 2023

Most Turnovers This Season
T-1. Josh Dobbs, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Sam Howell – 17

• Howell is 5-3 ATS in his career on the road. Seven of the eight matchups have ended in one-score games.
  Howell is 1-5-1 ATS at home
  Best Washington QB ATS on road last 20 years: 1. Grossman 6-2 ATS, 2. T Hasselbeck 3-0 ATS, 3. Alex Smith 5-3, 4. J Johnson 2-0, 5. Sam Howell 5-3
• Sam Howell has thrown a pick-6 in three of his last four games and he’s thrown an INT in four straight starts.
  Howell has 6 INT in his last four starts.
• Ron Rivera full game O/U by his game status…
  Home dog: 23-18 under
  Home favorite: 31-30-2 under
  Road favorite: 21-16-1 under
  Road dog: 41-27 over
• Ron Rivera’s team is on a road trip this week going from PT to ET.
  6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS
  0-3 SU/ATS last three in this spot
• Ron Rivera career as coach at MetLife: 3-2-1 SU, 3-3 ATS
• Rivera vs. teams scoring fewer than 10 points previous game: 8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS
  0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS in 2023
• The dog is strong in Ron Rivera. He is 61-46-3 ATS as an underdog and 47-53-2 ATS as a favorite with Washington and Carolina.
  Most profitable coaches ATS as dog last 20 years: Tomlin, Harbough, Payton, Carroll Garrett, Reid, Rivera.
• Rivera has had issues covering the 1H spread. Washington is 4-10 1H ATS this season and 29-46-2 1H ATS since 2019 – second worst coach 1H ATS in NFL behind Tomlin.
• Rivera is 61-46-3 ATS as an underdog in his coaching career, includes a 22-18-2 ATS mark as a home dog.
• Under in Commanders home games is 20-11-1 since 2020 – fifth-best in the NFL behind the Giants (23-7-1), Rams (23-11), Panthers (21-10) and Chiefs (25-14)
  Unders for Commanders on the road: 17-15-1 since 2020
• In the last four seasons, Rivera-coached games are 37-26-2 to the under.
  In that span, Rivera is the fifth-best coach to under
• "Bet dogs in low total games…" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 183-129-9 ATS (59%) since 2018 & 97-75–6 ATS (56%) last two years.
  Week 16: PIT, NE, WAS, CAR, LV
• Teams to travel from PT to ET have had 1H success going 112-71-3 1H ATS (61.2%) since 2017.
  Week 16: WAS, PHI

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Jets

• The Jets as a team have 16 TD in 14 games, including 13 offensive TD.
  Their 16 total TDs thru 14 games is fewest since 2011 Rams (15)
  Their 4 rush TDs thru 14 games is fewest since 2009 Rams (4)
• Jets are 48-for-188 on third downs (25.5%). Through 14 games, that is the worst 3D% for any team since 2015 Rams.
• Zach Wilson has 993 pass attempts in his career and 23 TD passes (2.3% TD pass pct).
  No QB in the Super Bowl era has thrown that many pass attempts with that low a TD pass perctage. Lowest all-time minimum 500 attempts? Kenny Pickett at 1.8%.
• 45 QBs have had 300+ plays since start of last season, here is Zach Wilson’s ranks
  EPA/play: 44th | success rate: 43rd | completion percentage: 43rd
• Jets have been favored in six games with Zach Wilson. They are 3-3 SU and 2-3-1 ATS. His highest spread as a favorite is -3 against the Giants in October.
• Jets have four wins with Zach Wilson as the starting QB this season. Three of those four wins have required a fourth quarter comeback from Wilson and the Jets.
  Wilson trails only Russell Wilson for the most fourth-quarter comebacks in the NFL this season.
• Where have all the INT gone?
  Zach Wilson is 12th of 30 NFL QBs in INT% this season (percentage times intercepted when attempting a pass)
  Wilson has started seven games this season where he hasn’t thrown an interception. He had just 11 such games in his first two seasons.
• Fewest SU wins, teams with win total of 8.5 or more: Jets/Chargers with five wins
• Saleh and the Jets have struggled to win against good offensive teams.
  20 PPG or higher: 9-22 SU
  19.9 PPG or less: 6-8 SU
• With Aaron Rodgers hurt, the Jets have started a “backup QB” for the most of the season. They have struggled mightily through the years when they are forced to go to a backup QB — 7-33 SU, 14-25-1 ATS over the last decade when starting a backup QB.
• Jets odds to make the playoffs are OTB right now. Jets haven’t made playoffs in 12 seasons – longest drought in NFL.

Longest Active Playoff Drought 4 Major Sports
12 – Jets
12 – Sabres

• Are the Jets the biggest flop ever? The Jets were 150-1 to win it all entering last season. They entered this year at 18-1. That big of a jump into inside 20-1 odds year-to-year has only been done three other times.
  All four teams are a combined 28-35 SU, 25-35-3 ATS

Biggest Super Bowl Moves Year-to-Year to Inside 20-1 Odds Since Merger
1979 to 1980 WAS 300-1 to 8-1 (+29,200). 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS, Miss
1999 to 2000 STL 150-1 to 3-1 (+14,700). 10-7 SU, 6-10-1 ATS, L WC
1983 to 1984 NO 150-1 to 8-1 (+14,200). 7-9 SU, 7-8-1 ATS, Miss
2022 to 2023 NYJ 150-1 to 18-1 (+13,200). 5-9 SU, 5-8-1 ATS

• Expectations were high in the preseason
  = Jets were 18-1 to win the Super Bowl – lowest odds to win it all since 2011.
  = Jets were +250 to win AFC East – lowest odds since 2011 (haven’t won since 2002).
  = Jets haven’t made playoffs in 13 seasons – longest drought in NFL.
• Fewest snaps played by Week 1 QB starting a season since 2007
  3 – Aaron Rodgers, NYJ 2023 (5-9 SU, 5-8-1 ATS)
  15 – Tomy Brady, NE 2008 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS)
  15 – Ryan Fitzpatrick, WAS 2021 (7-10 SU, 7-9-1 ATS)
• Jets have 27 fumbles as a team this season – most in the NFL
• Teams to lose by 20+ the week before, facing a team who didn’t, are 91-64-1 ATS (59%) since 2020.
  Week 16: LAC, DEN, DAL, NYJ
• Teams after scoring 3 pts or less in their previous game are 81-53-5 ATS (60.4%) last decade.
  Week 16: NYJ
• Teams after getting shutout are 30-13-3 ATS (70%) since 2015.
  Week 16: NYJ

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Lions at Vikings | Sunday, Dec. 24

1:00pm ET | FOX

DET -2.5 | 47.5

Lions

• Lions can clinch NFC North with win.
  They can clinch playoff berth with:
  LAR loss OR SEA loss
• Fade good SU and ATS teams. In December or later, teams with a 70%+ win percentage and 60%+ cover percentage are 211-260-10 ATS (44.8%) last 20 years.
  Week 16: DET, BAL, PHI
• Divisional games in December or later have had an edge to the under when played in the early window of games (1 p.m. ET). Divisional games played at 1 p.m. ET in Dec. or later are 225-169-9 (57.1%) last 20 years.
  Week 16: DET/MIN, LV/KC
• Sam LaPorta is having an unreal season.
  Sam LaPorta is third among tight ends in fantasy points this season…but trails top-scoring T.J. Hockenson by only 4.0 points.
  Most TE fantasy points in teams first 14 games of players first season: Ditka, 1961 (179) and LaPorta, 2023 (134)
  Most TE receptions in teams first 14 games of player first season: Keith Jackson, 1988 (74) and LaPorta, 2023 (71)
  Most TE receiving TD in teams first 14 games of player first season: Mike Ditka, 1988 (12) and LaPorta, 2023 (9)
• Expect a low scoring game? When both teams are on extended rest, the under is 106-51-1 (68%) since 2018, including 30-9 so far this season.
  Week 16: DET/MIN, BAL/SF, LV/KC
• Could be first of three games the Lions and Vikings play each other in 21 days if they meet in playoffs.
• How the Lions can win the division:
  The Lions can win their first division title since 1993 with a win in Minnesota this Sunday or a Packers loss at Carolina
• Lions went over their win total of 9.5 with the win over DEN
  Detroit was the only NFL team without double-digit win total in Wild Card era (since 1990) – their win total of 9.5 this year was their highest in Wild Card era
• Goff broke a 14-game streak of completing at least 60% of his passes two weeks ago against the Bears. He came out and delivered a game of 70%+ completion percentage last week.
• Lions scored just 13 points last week. Goff is 9-2 ATS since 2019 after scoring fewer than 14 points in his previous games, including 6-2 ATS with Lions.
• Jared Goff and the Lions will now play their final 3 games in a dome: at MIN, at DAL, MIN
• Goff ATS by indoor/outdoor.
  Indoor: 32-16 ATS (22-8 ATS last 3 seasons)
  Outdoor: 34-35-2 ATS (25-20-1 ATS in Nov or earlier | 9-15-1 ATS in Dec/Jan)
• Lions are -10000 to win the NFC North. DET was +135 to win division entering season – shortest division odds for DET last 20 years – Lions were favored to win NFC North in preseason for 1st time since current iteration of division in 2002. Last time they had best odds for division team was 1992
• Goff on extended rest (8+ days): 16-11-2 ATS (not including Week 1)
  Goff at home on extended rest with Lions: 5-1 SU/ATS, covering by 10.5 PPG
  Goff on road on extended rest with Lions: 3-1-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, not covering by 2 points
• Goff is 9-5 ATS in games not in EST with Lions, he was 25-31-2 ATS in that spot with Rams.
• Lions have played four games as road favorites this season: 4-1 SU/ATS, covering by 1.2 PPG. Last time DET played fives games or more in a season as a road favorite was 2013.
• In Goff’s career, he is 24-16-1 ATS vs. division opponents – 10th of 252 QBs last 20 years.
  With the Lions, he’s 9-7 SU, 11-5 ATS vs. NFC North
  Most profitable QBs ATS in Division vs. NFC North last 20 years

1. Rodgers, 2. Goff, 3. Brad Johnson

• Dating back to last season, Goff has covered 9-3 in 12 games vs. above .500 SU opponents, going 13-4 ATS in this spot since 2021 – second-best mark in the NFL, behind Joe Burrow.
• Goff is 22-8-1 against the first half spread over the last two seasons, best mark of any QB in the NFL.
• Goff is most profitable QB ATS over last five seasons (48-28-1 ATS, +$1,650).
• Lions are 21-10 ATS since the start of last season, most profitable team ATS in the NFL ($919).
  Lions are one win away from 10 ATS wins in three straight seasons (9-5 ATS this year). Prior to this stretch, Lions had one 10-win ATS season (2010) since 1995.
  Lions are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games overall.
• Goff is 21-10 ATS at home since 2020, most profitable QB in the NFL ($943)
  Goff on the road since 2020: 17-13 ATS
• Goff went 383 pass attempts without an interception before throwing one in Week 2 – the third-longest streak in NFL history behind Aaron Rodgers (402) and Tom Brady (399).
  In 2023, he is +2.1 units betting his yes INT prop.
  If you bet on Goff to throw an INT in every game last season, you would have been down 7.3U (most of any QB).

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Vikings

• Vikings are 12-1-1 to the first quarter under this season.
• Kirk Cousins last played for the Vikings in Week 8. Since, Vikings offense is 20th in EPA/play and even 25th in rush EPA/play, impacting the ground game.
• Nick Mullens career SU/ATS: 5-13 SU, 6-11-1 ATS
  On road: 2-5 SU, 2-4-1ATS | as underdog: 4-8 SU, 5-6-1 ATS
• Josh Dobbs career SU/ATS: 3-11 SU, 7-6-1 ATS
  On road: 1-6 SU, 3-3-1 ATS | as underdog: 2-10 SU, 7-5 ATS
• With Kirk out, Minnesota will continue to go to a back up QB.
  Vikings have started four QBs this season – Kirk Cousins, Joshua Dobbs, Jaren Hall, Nick Mullens – their most in a season in franchise history.
  Since 2015, only four backup QBs have started for Minnesota entering this week. Now a fifth: Mullens, Dobbs, Hall, Sean Mannion and Case Keenum. They are 16-10 SU, 15-8-3 ATS in 25 games filling in for the Vikings.
• Kevin O’Connell as a favorite and an underdog
  Favorite: 16-4 SU, 9-9-2 ATS
  Underdog: 4-8 SU, 5-6-1 ATS
• Teams coming off OT are now 130-160 SU (44.8%), 135-153-2 ATS (46.9%) last decade
  Week 16: MIN, HOU, TEN, CIN
• O’Connell vs. Lions: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS
  O’Connell has faced the Lions twice since taking over at the start of the season in 2022 and is 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS. This is the first meeting in 2023 with the second taking place just two weeks later in Detroit
  Vs. NFC North SU, ATS: 6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS
  He has covered three of his last four games in the division, three of which were against CHI.
  Dog/Favorite vs. NFC North: O’Connell and the Vikings play their role in the NFC North, they are 6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS as favorites and 0-2 SU/ATS as underdogs.
• O’Connell off win/loss
  Off a loss: 4-5-1 ATS
  Off a win: 9-9-2 ATS
• O’Connell on extended rest: 4-4 SU, 3-4-1 ATS
• The Vikings are 10-4 to the under this season. Between 2020-22, Minnesota was 34-16-1 to the over in that span.
• Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell by time of day
  1P ET or earlier: 16-4 SU, 10-8-2 ATS
  2P ET or later: 4-8 SU, 4-7-1 ATS
• Vikings have 23 fumbles as a team – tied for third-most in the NFL
  Joshua Dobbs has 14 fumbles now, most in the NFL. Next highest is 12 (Tua).
  14 would've led the league in two of the last three seasons.
• Vikings went 11-0 in one-score games last year during the regular season. Minnesota has now played six straight one-score games entering Week 16 and they’ve played 13 one-score games in 2023 (7-7 SU) in 14 total games.

Worst point differential among 13+ win teams since the merger (incl. postseason)
2022 Vikings -10 2023: 8.5 win total (7-7 SU, 7-5-2 ATS)
1979 Oilers +26 1980: 11-6 SU (WC), 6-9-2 ATS
1990 Raiders +31 1991: 9-8 SU (WC), 8-9 ATS (U10 win total)
1993 Chiefs +31 1994: 9-8 SU (WC), 9-8 ATS (U9.5 win total)

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Jaguars at Buccaneers | Sunday, Dec. 24

4:05pm ET | CBS

JAC -1 | 43.5

Jaguars

• Jaguars home/road splits this season:
  Home: 2-5 SU/ ATS (7-9 ATS last two seasons)
  Away/Neutral: 6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS (11-6 ATS last two seasons)
• Jaguars have lost three consecutive games SU after starting 8-3 SU on the season.
  Teams who are above .500 SU, who have lost at least three straight games are 21-13-2 ATS last 20 years.
• Jaguars recent road/neutral success.
  6-1 SU/ATS this season and 9-2 SU, 10-1 ATS in last 11 dating back to December of 2022
• Jaguars are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. teams above .500 SU over the last two seasons
  Over the last two seasons, Lawrence is 10-6 ATS in this spot, fourth-best QB in the NFL.
• Night games loss to road game following week: 102-146-1 SU (41.1%) last decade
• Pederson has historically excelled as an underdog and struggled as a favorite.
  Underdog: 32-26 ATS (6-4 ATS last 10 games)
  Favorite: 29-32 ATS
• Pederson ATS in his career: 61-58 ATS
  Sept-Nov: 37-40 ATS
  Dec on: 24-18 ATS
• Jaguars are 9-18 SU, 10-17 ATS off a loss under Lawrence. They are 11-9 SU, 12-8 ATS off of a win.
• Lawrence is just 8-7 SU, 7-8 ATS as a favorite in his NFL career. Lawrence is 8-2 SU in his last ten starts as a favorite.
• Lawrence is 11-15 SU, 14-12 ATS as road/neutral in his career including ATS wins in 10 of last 11 games
• Lawrence has been made into a different QB with Doug Pederson
  w/ Pederson: 18-15 SU/ATS
  w/ Darrell Bevell and Urban Meyer: 3-14 SU, 5-12 ATS
• Lawrence is 23-27 against 1H spread career, but this season has been a turn around for Lawrence. He is 9-5 1H ATS this season – he’s lost three straight.
• Lawrence is 19-13-1 against the second half spread since the start of last season – the fourth-most profitable 2H ATS QB in the NFL behind Purdy, Ridder, and Burrow
• Lawrence is 29-21 to the under in the last three seasons – broke a streak of two straight overs
• Bad Trevor Lawrence this season:
  Kirk Cousins has same number of pass TD (18), only six QBs have more INT than him, he’s taken the eighth-most sacks and he’s 25th of 30 QBs in on-target throw percentage this season.
• Lawrence is 13-22 SU as an underdog in his career, but 10-10 SU since the start of last season (3-12 SU as a dog in his rookie year).
• Lawrence on the moneyline as an underdog
  Home: 7-8 SU (0-3 SU this season)
  Road/Neutral: 6-14 SU
• Good teams who lost and scored fewer than 14 points in their last game tend to cover in their next game. Teams over .500 SU, who scored less than 14 points in a loss are 106-80-6 ATS (57%) last 10 years.
  Week 16: JAC, DAL

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Buccaneers

• Bucs have won three consecutive games after starting 4-7 SU on the year.
  Since 2020, teams that have won three-straight are 32-18-1 SU, 27-24 ATS in December or later
• Baker Mayfield is 25-21 ATS as an underdog and 13-25-1 ATS as a favorite
• Baker had been an under machine since start of last year, 15-9 in that span, including 12-7 in his last 19 starts.
  But he and the Bucs have hit four straight overs averaging 25.25 over that stretch
• Bucs home vs. road SU, ATS this season:
  Home: 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS
  Away: 4-4 SU, 7-1 ATS
• After Baker wins his last game by double-digits: 6-12 SU, 9-9 ATS
  Lost last six games outright
  Teams after winning by double-digits at Lambeau Field: 13-6 SU, 10-8-1 ATS
• Baker Mayfield is 38-46-1 ATS since being drafted No. 1 overall by the Browns in 2018, losing a $100 bettor $1,006 (269th of 284 QBs in the last 20 years).
• Baker has thrown two-plus TDs and zero INT five times this season .. all five have come on the road. That is most such road games for any QB this season.
  Since 1990, six such road games is the record for any QB, done by Russell Wilson (2014), Tom Brady (2016, 20), Aaron Rodgers (2020, 21) and Kirk Cousins (2021).
• Bowles in his career as a head coach is horrible SU as a dog, 16-42 SU and 13-40 in last five seasons.
  2023: 4-6 SU
  2022: 0-4 SU
  2018: 3-10 SU
  2017: 4-11 SU
  2016: 3-9 SU
• Todd Bowles is one of the worst coaches in the NFL as an underdog.
  16-42 SU, 25-30-3 ATS as an underdog (25-16 SU as a favorite)
• Bucs and Baker upset the Packers last week. Can they win again? Baker has played 16 career games off of a SU win as an underdog, his teams are 5-11 SU and 7-9 ATS in their next game after pulling the upset.
• Baker is 7-9 ATS last three seasons off SU win. He doesn’t do the streak thing.
• Baker is 14-24-1 ATS at home in his career. He’s never finished a season above .500 ATS at home – He’s ranked 116th of 118 QBs since he entered the league.

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Cowboys at Dolphins | Sunday, Dec. 24

4:25pm ET | FOX

MIA -2.5 | 48.5

Cowboys

• Cowboys are 1-3 against teams currently with a winning record. They have a point differential of -38 in those games. Point differential of -58 in road games against teams currently with winning records.
• Good third down teams tend to cover the spread. In November or later, teams with a 45% third down rate or higher, facing a team who is below that threshold, is 321-257-20 ATS (55.5%) last 20 years.
  Week 16: BUF, DAL, KC, SF, PHI
• Teams that lose by 17 or more playing a team that won by 17 or more the previous week are 111-76-4 ATS (59%) the ensuing week over the last 20 years.
  Week 16: LAC, DAL
• Teams to lose by 20+ the week before, facing a team that didn’t, are 91-64-1 ATS (59%) since 2020.
  Week 16: LAC, DEN, DAL, NYJ
• Good teams that lost and scored fewer than 14 points in their last game tend to cover in their next game. Teams over .500 SU, who scored less than 14 points in a loss are 106-80-6 ATS (57%) last 10 seasons.
  Week 16: JAC, DAL
• Really good teams that are listed as underdogs late in the season have struggled. Teams with a 70%+ win percentage in December or later, that are listed as dogs are 48-72-3 ATS (40%) in the regular season.
  Week 16: DAL, BAL
• Cowboys have clinched a playoff berth and hold the current tiebreaker over the Eagles in the NFC East
• Dak Prescott will fall to 6-13 straight up in his career on the road vs. over .500 SU teams. Since he was drafted, that's 114th of 116 QBs in moneyline profitability.
• Dak vs. AFC: 16-14 SU, 16-13-1 ATS
  Since 2021: 8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS
• Ceedee Lamb is having an unreal season for the Cowboys.
  DAL records through 14 games: second-most targets (141), most receptions (103) and third-most receiving yards (1,306)
• Cowboys home vs. road this season
  Home: 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS
  Road: 3-4 SU/ATS.
  Failing to cover by an average of 3.29 ppg
• Dak has only been an underdog in consecutive games three times since 2018 and he’s won the second game as a dog SU all three times.
• Dak is 7-0 ATS coming off a loss last two seasons and 8-11 ATS off a SU win.
  7-0 ATS mark is best in the NFL – QBs 3-0 ATS or better off loss last two years: Prescott, Watson (4-0), Darnold (3-0)
• Dak does well vs. bad teams. He is 36-10 SU, 31-13-2 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and 22-25 SU, 18-29 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU.
  The 31-13-2 ATS mark is second-best in the last 20 years behind just Tom Brady.
  The 18-29 ATS mark is 259th of 263 QBs in the last 20 years.
• Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson has 24 targets in the red zone this year, tied for the most with Ceedee Lamb.
• Can the Cowboys keep it going? Last three seasons: After a loss SU: 12-1 ATS |After a win SU: 19-16 ATS
• If you bet on Prescott to throw an INT in every game last season, you would be up 8.6U (most of any QB). Second was Aaron Rodgers at +7.2U.
  This season, you would be down 3 units betting a “yes” INT for Dak.
• Prescott is 5-8-1 ATS in MT or PT time zones, but he’s 59-43-1 ATS in ET and CT.
• Prescott is 28-11 ATS vs. NFC East (+$1,554), 36-40-2 ATS vs. all other divisions (-$613)
• Dak as an underdog: 12-19 SU, 15-16 ATS
  When he gets 3.5 points or more he’s 9-7 ATS
• Cowboys are outscoring their opponents by 11.93 PPG this season — second-highest mark in the NFL behind 49ers (13.6) — and are listed as underdogs at Miami
  Teams outscoring their opponents by 10+ PPG and be underdogs in back-to-back games in December or later last 20 years
  2023 Cowboys
  2021 Patriots (WC)
  2019 49ers (L SB)
  2017 Rams (WC)
  2017 Eagles (SB)
  2011 Texans (Div)
  2004 Chargers (WC)

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Dolphins

• Dolphins can clinch AFC East with:
  Win & BUF loss
• Can clinch playoff berth with win.
• Dolphins are still the favorites to win AFC East at -250, Miami hasn’t been a preseason favorite to win AFC East since 2003 and they haven’t been favored at all to win the AFC East since winning the division back in 2008.
  Haven’t won AFC East in 14 seasons (fifth-longest streak in NFL active)
• Since 2021, Dolphins are 4-11 SU vs. teams above .500 SU and 19-8 SU vs. teams below .500 SU on the season.
  The Dolphins haven't beaten a team with a winning record since they beat the Bills in Week 3 of last season (Sept. 25, 2022) – Only one team doesn't have a SU win over a team with a winning record in this span == Dolphins: 0-7 SU
• Dolphins are 3-7 SU in December or later since start of last year.
  Most of the issues has been on the road. They are 1-0 SU on road in Dec. this year, but are 4-13 SU on road in Dec or later since 2017 and 6-16 SU since 2015.
• Dolphins are 1-1 SU at home in December in 2023. Miami hasn’t finished below .500 SU at home in December or later since 2014.
  Last 20 years, Dolphins are 31-24 SU at home in December or later and 17-28 SU on the road.
• Dolphins offense is no longer the NFL leader in Yards Per Play after starting at a historical pace. 49ers lead by a small margin now.
  Highest YPP through 14 games in SB era:
  2000 Rams: 7.02, 2004 Colts: 6.82, 2023 49ers: 6.79, 2018 Chiefs: 6.78, 2023 Dolphins: 6.63
• Tua Tagovailoa prefers South Beach when it comes to covering the number. He’s 17-7 ATS at home and 11-12-1 ATS away from home in his career.
  Dolphins haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS at home since 2015
  Miami is 37-22-3 ATS since 2016 at home – best home team ATS in that span
• Tua vs. NFC: 10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS | 4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS in last 7
• Tua faces Super Bowl-winning head coach Mike McCarthy this week.
  He’s 12-2 SU in his career. vs. Super Bowl-winning head coaches
  23: KC (L), NE X2, DEN | 22: PIT, BAL, NE | 21: NE X2, NO | 20: OAK, NE, KC (L), LAR
  His only losses vs Super Bowl winning coaches? Andy Reid in 2020 and 2023.
• Tua vs. above .500 SU teams career: 7-6-1 ATS
  When he’s at home: 4-0 ATS
  When he’s on road/neutral: 3-6-1 ATS
• Tua by time zone: 25-11-1 ATS in ET | 3-6 ATS all other time zones
• Tyreek Hill watch…
  Tyreek has 1,542 receiving yards through 14 team games. Hill is 458 receiving yards shy of 2,000 and 423 yards shy of breaking the single-season record (1,964) by Calvin Johnson in 2012 with three games to go.
  Most receiving yards all-time thru 15 games: Calvin Johnson, 1,892 (2012). second-most is Jefferson last year (1,756).
  Tyreek was +950 to lead NFL in receiving yards entering this year (third-top choice).
  He is still 230 yards up on A.J. Brown
• When Tua faces an opposing offense average 21 PPG or less, he is 16-6 SU, including 15-2 SU in his last 17 in this spot (he began his career 1-4 SU in this spot).
  When he faces an offense avg more than 21 PPG: 12-11 SU
• Dolphins and Cowboys are both beating their opponents this season by 7+ PPG and they face off in Week 16. When two teams meet, both with this high a win margin, the favorite is 91-116-4 ATS (44%) last 20 years.
  Week 16: MIA, SF
• When two teams meet winning by 7+ PPG on the year in November or later, favorite is 50-72-2 ATS (41%) last 20 years.
  Week 16: MIA, SF

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Cardinals at Bears | Sunday, Dec. 24

4:25pm ET | FOX

CHI -4 | 43.5

Cardinals

• The Cardinals are one of two teams to be listed as underdogs in all of their games so far this season along with the Panthers.
• Welcome back Kyler Murray: The Cardinals went the first nine games of the season without being a public side once. Three of the first five weeks with Murray, the public had bought into Arizona and going 3-0 ATS as the public side and now 0-2 ATS when not listed as the public side.
• How does Murray perform based on his prep/rest?
  Short rest: 2-7 SU, 4-5 ATS
  Normal rest: 20-17 SU, 21-14-2 ATS
  Extended rest + Week 1: 7-10 ATS
• Since 2020, teams that allow 40+ points are 54-48-1 SU, 54-47-2 ATS.
  31-21-1 ATS on the road (0-1 ATS neutral)
  23-25-1 ATS at home
• Teams after playing the 49ers: Since 2021, teams are 17-34-1 SU, 20-32-2 ATS after facing the 49ers
• Cardinals since 3-0 ATS start: 2-9 SU, 4-7 ATS
• The Cardinals offense has been a rollercoaster this season with three different QBs under center — from Josh Dobbs to Clayton Tune to Murray — lets see if they can see some consistency.
  First three games: 11th offensive EPA/play, 15th off. success rate
  Next six games: 31st offensive EPA/play, 30th in off. success rate
  Week 10 on: 15th offensive EPA/play, 18th off. success rate
• Since Kyler Murray arrived in Arizona, he is 27-35-1 SU. All other QBs are 4-14 SU.
• Cardinals defense stinks.
  Pressure rate: 16.5% (32nd)
  Opp. first downs: 312 (32nd)
  EPA/play on D: 31st
  Opp. success rate: 32nd
• Kyler Murray has had success as an underdog and on the road and struggled as a favorite and at home.
  Dog: 23-14-2 ATS | Fav: 9-15 ATS
  Road: 19-9-2 ATS | Home: 13-20 ATS
• Here is how Kyler has performed based on the strength of the opponent.
  Vs. above .500 SU teams: 11-16-2 ATS
  Vs. below .500 SU teams: 16-10 ATS
• Play three cold weather games this year: PIT, CHI, PHI on road in December
  Last 20 years, Cardinals are 15-24 SU in 50-degree or colder weather
• Trey McBride has emerged as the leading target for ARI QBs
  Over first seven games – 21 targets
  Last seven – 64 targets (two 100+ yard games over that stretch)
• Good reaction by Cardinals after facing Seahawks/49ers lately. 11-8-2 ATS since 2018.
• Bet “small, bad, road dogs” … teams to open as a dog of 7 points or less road/neutral, who won five games or less the previous year, are 359-255-10 ATS (58.5%) last 20 years.
  Week 16: IND, ARI

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Bears

• Bears have closed -4 or higher just twice since Sept. of 2020. Both times have been against Mike Glennon with the Giants and the Jaguars.
  QBs Bears have closed -4.5 or higher against: Glennon (X2), Daniel Jones, Sean Mannion, David Blough, Daniel Jones, Jeff Driskel
• No head coach in NFL history has ever lost multiple games in a single season despite owning a 10+ point lead and at least a +2 turnover margin heading into the fourth quarter. Matt Eberflus just became that guy.
• If football games ended after three quarters, the Bears would be 8-6-1.
  They have yet to win a game where they entered the third quarter tied/trailing, but have now lost three games where they held 10-point leads in the fourth.
• Hard to shake the past. Teams off four fewer or less the year prior, who are listed as a favorite the following year are 215-256-14 ATS (45.5%) last 20 years, including 40-51-2 ATS (44%) last five seasons.
  Week 16: CHI, HOU
• Bears haven’t won three straight home games SU in the same season since December 2019.
  Last four-game SU home win streak: 2018 (won five in a row)
• Bears have been very streaky at home since 2021. (8-15 SU)
  Won last two, lost 10 straight, won three straight, lost five straight, won two straight ←- start of 2021
• Bears defense has allowed 20 points or less in three consecutive games.
  Over last four years in this spot, they are 0-3 SU/ATS and 2-5 ATS in this spot since 2019.
• Since start of last season, Bears are 8-23 SU … 4-3 SU at night, 4-20 SU not at night.
• Fields in night games: 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS | all other times: 5-22 SU, 8-18-1 ATS
• Bears are 7-7 to the over this year (T-11th best mark in NFL) and 17-14 to the over since start of last season, second-best mark in the NFL. (Lions are 19-12)
• Montez Sweat arrived in Chicago for Week 9. Bears are third in EPA/play defense in Week 9 on, they were 30th Weeks 1-8.
  Bears had 10 sacks Weeks 1-8, fewest in NFL. They already have 15 since with three games to go.
• The Bears have been an incredible fade in divisional matchups the past few seasons, going a pathetic 8-20-1 ATS vs the Lions, Packers and Vikings since 2019, losing a $100 bettor $1,238 – that is the least profitable team vs. their own division in the NFL in that span.
  CHI is 20-31-1 ATS vs. other divisions since 2019
• Fields is 8-27 SU, 12-22-1 ATS in his career.
  He is dead last of 97 QBs in ATS profit since he entered the league (97. Fields, 96. Mac, 95. Carr).
• Fields 4-10 SU, 5-9 ATS vs. NFC North
  Fields vs. all other divisions: 5-16 SU, 7-13-1 ATS
  Bears are 20-31-1 ATS vs. non-NFC North divisions since 2019, third-worst mark in the NFL ahead of just the Falcons, Jaguars.
• Fields is 14-20-1 1H ATS in his career.
  Since he was drafted in 2021, only Kyler Murray, Tom Brady, Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder and Mac Jones have been worse 1H ATS.
• When Bears opponents score more than 20 points vs. a Justin Fields-Bears team, they are 21-0 SU. All eight of Fields' wins have come with opponents scoring 20 points or less.
• Bears haven’t gone over their win total since 2018 – they are 2-9-1 to the under since 2011
• Never had 4k yd passer. 14 straight seasons without QB starting every game. One pro bowl QB since 1985 (Mitchell Trubisky, 2018)
• Chicago is 7-14-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall and they are 28-51-2 ATS over the last five seasons – worst mark in the NFL

Bears sacks in the first nine games: 10
Bears sacks in the past five games: 15
Bears INTs in the first nine games: 6
Bears INTs in the past five games: 12

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Patriots at Broncos | Sunday, Dec. 24

8:15pm ET | NFL Network

DEN -7.5 | 35.5

Patriots

• Belichick career vs. Payton: 2-2 SU/ATS
• Belichick career vs. Russ: 1-3 SU/ATS
• The Patriots team total under is 11-3 this season – Tied for the best record to the under in the NFL with Raiders.
• Patriots are 3-10-1 ATS this season, worst record in the NFL
  Patriots have started 3-10-1 ATS or worse two other times in their history: 1981 (3-11 ATS) and 1990 (3-11 ATS).
  3-13 ATS is their worst ATS finish back in 1981.
• Patriots are 5-15 SU, 4-15-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall.
  Patriots had lost five straight ATS during their five game losing streak dating back to October. First time the Patriots had lost five straight ATS within the same season since losing six straight at the end of the 2007-08 Super Bowl campaign. Since the Chargers game, they are 1-0-1 ATS.
• Patriots have struggled vs. the best and done well against some of the bad teams.
  Since 2019, Patriots are 17-24 SU, 15-23-3 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU, second-worst ATS mark in the NFL just ahead of the Bears
  Since 2019, they are 19-10 SU, 16-13 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU, including 10-10 ATS since 2020.
  In that same span, they are 10-23-2 ATS vs. teams who made playoffs previous season, second-worst mark in the NFL (CHI). When they face a team who didn’t make the playoffs, they are 25-21-1 ATS in that span.
• Between 2016-22, Patriots were 34-20 ATS vs. teams .500 SU or worse (third-best in NFL), they are 1-6 ATS this season, they have lost six straight ATS. Only win against 1-1 Jets in Week 3
• Belichick in night games: 76-38 SU, 59-50-3 ATS in last 20 years – 6-11 ATS since 2020
  With Brady: 49-37-3 ATS (last 20 years)
  Without Brady on Patriots: 10-13 ATS (last 20 years)
  On the road at night: 29-22-1 ATS (last 20) and 4-9 ATS in last 13 spots
• Belichick win total results in his career
  15-7-2 NE | 2-3 CLE = 17-10-2
  With Tom Brady: 14-3-2
  Without Brady: 3-7
• Since Brady left, Belichick and the Pats are 28-37 SU, 27-36-2 ATS since 2020.
  Belichick SU career: 249-75 SU with Brady | 46-56 SU without Brady
  Belichick SU with Browns: 37-45 SU
  Belichick is 83-101 SU without Brady in his career
• Since 2021, Belichick is 5-20 SU as an underdog (16-8 SU as a favorite). Between 2003-15, he was 25-22 SU as an underdog.
• Belichick ATS last 20 years by over/under
  Under 40: 37-15-2 ATS (69.8%)
  Under 42: 56-32-3 ATS (62.2%)
  Under 45: 97-67-6 ATS (57.4%)
  45+: 110-90-5 ATS (55%)
• "Bet dogs in low total games…" == NFL underdogs in games with a total below 42 are 183-129-9 ATS (59%) since 2018 & 97-75–6 ATS (56%) last two years.
  Week 16: PIT, NE, WAS, CAR, LV

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Broncos

• Broncos are 6-2 SU in their last eight games after a 1-5 SU start
  Broncos could join the 1970 Bengals, the 2015 Kansas City Chiefs, the 2018 Indianapolis Colts and Washington in 2020 as the only teams to start 1-5 and make the postseason
• The under is 6-0-1 on the Broncos win total since 2016 and they are currently 7-7 SU with an 8.5 win total, so the fight is on.
• Broncos are 4-10 against the third quarter spread this season and 11-20 3Q ATS last two seasons.
• Broncos defense is eighth in EPA/play since Week 6 (ranked as low as third). In Weeks 1-5, they were 32nd, last in the NFL.
• Broncos defense allowed a completion pct of 73.6% through eight games this season, that was tied for the third-highest completion percentage through eight games in the Super Bowl era.
  Since that point, Broncos have allowed a comp% of 57.8%, third-lowest mark in the NFL.
• Wilson is 17-26 SU over the last three seasons, he was 107-52-1 SU in his first nine seasons in the NFL.
  Wilson is 8-12 SU in his last 20 starts and 11-18 SU in 29 starts for the Broncos.
• Broncos after allowing 30 points or more under Payton: 1-2 SU, 0-2-1 ATS
  Payton career ATS after allowing 30+ points: 41-22 SU, 34-27-2
• Rest hasn’t been best for Russ lately. He’s 2-6 SU in his last eight starts on extended rest.
  Since 2020: 3-7 SU/ATS
• Broncos home games have been an under-fest. They are 15-9 last three years and 46-28-1 since 2015 – all eight years .500 or better to the under at home. This season, they are 4-3 to the under at home.
• Russ after a SU loss career: 44-23 SU, 37-25-5 | with the Broncos: 6-10 SU, 7-8-1 ATS
  After a SU win: 74-48-1 SU, 60-61-2 ATS | with the Broncos: 5-6 SU, 4-7 ATS
• Wilson with Seahawks vs. Broncos
  DEN: 11-18 SU, 11-17-1 ATS
  SU mark is ninth-worst in NFL, ATS is 3rd-worst
  SEA: 113-60-1 SU, 90-77-7 ATS
• Wilson’s 11-18 SU mark has lost bettors $536 with Broncos, making him the second-least profitable QB on ML for Broncos last 20 years (Kyle Orton, -$628)
• Payton, Broncos are 5-8-1 ATS this season. Payton’s worst season since finishing 6-10 ATS in 2007 and 2014, and 7-10 in 2010
  Payton has gone seven straight years with his team above .500 ATS (2015-21)
  In 16 seasons, his teams are 13-3 above .500 ATS and 9-5-2 to the over on their win total
• Most profitable coaches ATS last 20 yrs: 1. Belichick, 2. Mike McCarthy, 3. Mike Zimmer 4. Sean Payton
  Payton fell behind Zimmer after the loss to the Jets earlier this year. Bounced back in front after the five-game win streak. Fell back behind after loss to Texans. Bounced back after win over Chargers. And fell back behind after loss to Lions. Ping-Pong.
• Teams to lose by 20+ the week before, facing a team that didn’t, are 91-64-1 ATS (59%) since 2020.
  Week 16: LAC, DEN, DAL, NYJ
• Teams traveling from a road EST game to a home MT/PT game are 55-81 ATS (40.4%) since 2015. Under .500 ATS each of the last five seasons.
  Week 16: DEN

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Raiders at Chiefs | Monday, Dec. 25

1:00pm ET | CBS

KC -10.5 | 40.5

Raiders

• Teams that scored 55+ points in their last game are 3-10-1 ATS since 2011.
• 12 teams have now scored 60 pts or more since 1960.
  Take out the 2023 Raiders (did it last week) and 1972 Bengals (did it in last game of season).
  Teams after scoring 60+ points in their previous game are 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS since 1970 merger and 2-8 SU, 1-9 ATS in the Super Bowl era.
  The one cover was Washington in 1966 beat Giants 72-41 as 17-point favorites and then were 13.5-point underdogs in Dallas the next week and won outright, 34-31.
  2023 MIA (+2.5) L 48-20 in BUF
  2011 NO (-14) L 31-21 in STL
  1999-00 JAC (-7) L 33-14 vs. TEN (playoffs)
  1989 CIN (+5) L 29-21 at MIN
  1985 NYJ (-3.5) W 16-13 vs NE
  1980 CHI (-6) L 17-14 vs. CIN
  1973 ATL(+3) L 31-0 at Rams
  1972 NYG (PK) L 13-10 at CIN
  1966 WAS (+13.5) W 34-31 at DAL
  1965 CHI (-13.5) L 24-17 vs. MIN
• After teams win by 30+: 132-152-10 ATS last 20 years
  40+: 19-24-3 ATS last 20 years
• Raiders are averaging 18.9 PPG this season and scored 63 points last week vs. Chargers
  Of the 66 teams to score 50 points or more last 20 years, Raiders are the fourth to still be averaging fewer than 20 PPG in their next game: 2022-23 Rams, 2003 49ers, 2003 Colts.
• Three NFL teams since 1990 have now had an over/under margin of “under by 30+ points” in their previous game and then an over/under margin of “over by 30+ points” in their next game.
  2023 Raiders
  2021 Browns
  2017 Saints
  No team has done -35/+35 like Raiders just did in that span.
• 8,688 NFL games have been played since 1990.
  Only twice has a game gone over or under the total by 35+ points with a team covering the spread by 35+ points.
• 2023: Chargers/Raiders
• 2023: Broncos/Dolphins
• The Chargers-Raiders over/under closed at 36. 84 total points were scored — going over the total by 48 points. That is the largest O/U margin since 2019 (SF/NO).
  Chargers/Raiders is the first game in the Wild Card era (since 1990) to have an over/under below 40 and have 40 points or more at the half.
• 230 NFL teams have played a game after being shutout since 1990.
• None have scored more than 40 points.
• Raiders just did it in the first half.
• "Bet dogs in low total games…" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 183-129-9 ATS (59%) since 2018 & 97-75–6 ATS (56%) last two years.
  Week 16: PIT, NE, WAS, CAR, LV
• Divisional games in December or later have had an edge to the under when played in the early window of games (1 p.m. ET). Divisional games played at 1p ET in Dec. or later are 225-169-9 (57.1%) last 20 years.
  Week 16: DET/MIN, LV/KC
• Teams with a negative SU point differential, who are over .500 ATS later in the season (game 9 on), are 127-154-6 ATS (45.2%) since 2015.
  Week 16: SEA, LV
• Raiders fade late in the season. Historically, the Raiders don’t win in November or later.
  Last 20 years, they’ve been over .500 SU in this window once (2016).
  In 2023, they are 3-3 SU in Nov. or later this season.
  They are 4-1-1 ATS in last six games.
• The Raiders team total under is 11-3 this season – tied for the best record to the under in the NFL with Patriots.
• Aidan O’Connell is the 24th different Raiders starting QB over the last 20 years.
  Only three of those 24 are profitable ATS for the Raiders: Jason Campbell, Terrelle Pryor, and O’Connell (4-2-1 ATS)
• Raiders home/road since moving to Las Vegas
  Raiders at home in Vegas: 16-17 SU, 18-14-1 ATS
  On road/neutral: 14-18 SU, 13-19 ATS
• At 4-1-1 ATS, Antonio Pierce is already making Raiders history.
  3rd LV coach since 1990 over .500 ATS: Hue Jackson and Jon Gruden
  This season: Pierce: 4-1-1 ATS | McDaniels: 3-5 ATS
• Haven’t won division in 20 seasons – tied for the third-longest streak in NFL (CLE 30, DET 29, NYJ 20)
• Raiders last three years vs. AFC West: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS | vs. AFC West on road: 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS

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Chiefs

• Chiefs go under their preseason win total with a loss Monday.
  Chiefs are 9-1 to their win total over in the last 10 years.
  Andy Reid win total results with KC/PHI: 9-1 over w/ KC | 9-4-1 over w/ PHI (18-5-1 overall to over)
• Mahomes has played in 39 night games in his career, four Saturday games and a game in Germany in the morning – a total of 44 “primetime” games. He is 34-10 SU, 26-17-1 ATS in those games.
• Mahomes is 34-22-1 to the under in his home starts. 14-3 to the under at home over the last two seasons, the most profitable home QB to under.
• Chiefs defense in Mahomes’ career (EPA/play)
  2023: 9th | 2022: 15th | 2021: 23rd | 2020: 19th | 2019: 18th | 2018: 28th
• One of two teams this season still favored in every game: KC, SF
• Chiefs second half unders have been the play…
  Second half unders are 12-2 in KC games this year
  4th quarter unders are 13-1 in KC games this year
• Mahomes' receivers have dropped 33 passes this season, most of any QB in the NFL. He had 33 last year, seventh-most in the NFL.
• Mahomes starts by point spread
  Favorite: 98 (48-48-2 ATS) | Dog: 10 (8-1-1 ATS)
  Home: 26-28-1 ATS | Road/Neutral: 30-21-2 ATS
  1 p.m. ET: 14-16-2 ATS | After 1 p.m. slate: 41-33-1 ATS
  -10 or higher: 26 (11-13-2 ATS) | -9.5 or less/or dog: 82 (45-36-1 ATS)
  -3 or less/or dog: 29 (20-8-1 ATS) | -3.5 or higher: 79 (36-41-2 ATS)
• Chiefs are 28-18-1 ATS after Mahomes throws an INT in his last game, 6-3-1 ATS this season.
• Mahomes career vs. Raiders: 10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS
  Mahomes is 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS on road vs. Raiders
• Mahomes vs. AFC West: 30-4 SU, 18-15-1 ATS
  As a favorite of 7 points or more vs. AFC West: 20-2 SU, 10-11-1 ATS
  He covers away from home vs. AFC West, going 16-1 SU, 10-7 ATS
  Mahomes is 17-1 SU on road/neutral vs. AFC West
• Mahomes and Andy Reid are off extended rest for this game vs. Raiders.
  Mahomes is 24-7 SU, 15-15-1 ATS on extended rest (eight or more days)
  Mahomes has played at home 16 times on extended rest, he’s 14-3 SU, 8-9 ATS. His three losses coming to Tom Brady in the AFC Championship Game in 2019 and twice this season. Game 1 vs the Lions and to the Eagles in week 11. Mahomes had won 12 consecutive games SU in that spot until Detroit.
• Reid last 20 years on eight or more days rest: 58-27 SU, 47-37-1 ATS. When rest comes early, he does great.
  Sept-Oct: 22-9 ATS
  Nov on: 25-28-1 ATS
• On extended rest (eight or more days), Reid and the  Chiefs are 33-14 SU, including 21-5 SU since 2019. Only QBs to beat them since 2019: Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Jalen Hurts
• Mahomes is 24-7 SU, 15-15-1 ATS on extended rest (eight or more days), including 10-0 SU, 5-5 ATS vs. AFC West on extended rest.
• Mahomes as a double-digit favorite: 24-2 SU, 11-13-2 ATS
  Only losses to: Derek Carr and Jacoby Brissett
• Mahomes is 12-7 ATS when the Chiefs are not listed as the public side and 44-41-3 ATS when he is listed as the public side.
• Mahomes is just 9-15 ATS after a SU win dating back to 2022, the least profitable QB in the NFL
  Mahomes after a SU loss: 18-4 SU, 12-9-1 ATS
• Mahomes career based on rest
  Six days or less: 11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS
  Seven days: 44-14 SU, 29-27-2 ATS
  Eight or days: 24-7 SU, 15-15-1 ATS
• Mahomes is 32-4 SU in Nov. and Dec. in last 35 games. He is 38-8 SU in Nov. and Dec. in his career (50-11 SU in Nov., Dec. and Jan).
• Chiefs are 4-10 against the fourth quarter spread this season and 18-36 4Q ATS the last three seasons.
• Rashee Rice leads the Chiefs in Anytime Touchdown profit this season at +10.5 units. Justin Watson led KC in ATTD profit last year (+15U).
• Good third down teams tend to cover the spread. In November or later, teams with a 45% third down rate or higher, facing a team below that threshold, is 321-257-20 ATS (55.5%) last 20 years.
  Week 16: BUF, DAL, KC, SF, PHI
• Expect a low scoring game? When both teams are on extended rest, the under is 106-51-1 (68%) since 2018, including 30-9 so far this season.
  Week 16: DET/MIN, BAL/SF, LV/KC
• Chiefs are -20000 to win the AFC West right now. Chiefs have won the AFC West for seven consecutive years — longest active division streak across four major sports — The longest run of division titles belongs to the New England Patriots with an 11-year streak from 2009 to 2019.

Longest NFL Division Title Streak NFL History
11 – 2009-19 NE
7 – 2016-23 KC
7 – 1973-79 STL

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Giants at Eagles | Monday, Dec. 25

8:20pm ET | FOX

PHI -13.5 | 43

Giants

• According to point differential, Giants are the worst team in the NFL, with a -149 this season and they are second to last in the NFL in points (Patriots)
  In 2020 and 2021, they finished 31st in scoring
• A very different year for the Giants under Brian Daboll.
  They went 7-0 ATS after a SU loss last season. This year, they are 3-5 ATS
• The Giants are 10-4 to the under this season – one of eight teams to go 10-4 to the under this season, best in NFL
• Giants are 44-20-2 to the under since 2020 – by far the best mark to the under in the NFL
• Daboll vs. Eagles: 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS (failing cover by 10.3 PPG)
  Daboll vs. NFC East: 6-5 ATS | on the road: 4-2 ATS
• Daboll ATS by QB as coach
  Tyrod Taylor: 2-0-1 ATS | Daniel Jones: 13-11 ATS | Davis Webb: 1-0 ATS | Tommy DeVito: 3-2 ATS
• Daboll led the Giants to an impressive 11-3 ATS record as an underdog in Year 1, going 7-6 straight-up (SU) in those spots.
  2023 hasn’t been as kind. Giants are 4-9 SU and 5-7-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
• QB comparison – min. 100 plays as QB for ranks (of 45 QBs).
  Taylor: 25th EPA/play, comp. pct. third, 23rd avg. depth per target
  Jones: 42nd EPA/play, comp. pct 12th, 37th avg. depth per target
  Devito: 38th EPA/play, comp. pct 19th, 41st avg. depth per target
• DeVito is 3-2 SU with a $100 ML bettor up $486, making him the second-most profitable QB on ML for Giants in the last 20 years, behind only Eli Manning (+$923).
• Daboll career with Giants.
  Home: 9-5-1 ATS | Road/Neutral: 10-8 ATS
  Favorite: 3-3 ATS | Underdog: 16-10-1 ATS
• Giants are 18-16 ATS on the road last four years, but they've been very up and down
  2023: 2-6 ATS | 2022: 7-2 ATS | 2021: 3-6 ATS | 2020: 6-2 ATS
• Since 2017, Giants are 9-40 SU in games played after the 1 p.m. ET window – least profitable team on the ML in the NFL.
  Giants are 28-36-1 SU playing at 1 p.m. ET or earlier in that span
• Giants are 5-9 SU and had a win total of 7.5 entering the year.
  Giants went over win total last year for first time since 2016. They’ve gone under in five of last six seasons – since 2011, 9-2-1 to the under.
  Haven’t gone over win total consecutive seasons since 2007-08
• Giants QBs have been sacked 76 times this season through 14 games – the second-most by any team in NFL history through 14 games behind the 1986 Eagles who were sacked 94 times.
  The record for sacks allowed in a single season is 104 by Eagles in 1986. No other team has broken 80.
• Teams that were sacked at least seven times in their previous game are 91-119-5 ATS (43.3%) in their next game over the last 20 years.
  Week 16: TEN, NYG
• Teams with a win percentage of 40% or less, facing team with win pct of 60% or more are 180-213-12 ATS (45.8%) when the game is played in November or later in the last decade.
  Week 16: NYG
• Team that score 6 points or less the previous week are 118-98-5 ATS (54.6%) the next week last decade. When they are listed as an underdog, 82-58-3 ATS (58.6%), only 36-40-2 ATS (47.4%) as a favorite.
  Week 16: NYG
• When two bad defenses play. Go under. When both teams allow 24 PPG or more, the under is 62-35 (64%) last three seasons
  Week 16: NYG/PHI

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Eagles

• Eagles are 8-5-1 ATS this season – Best ATS Seasons, Teams to Make Super Bowl Last 20 Years: 22 CIN 12-4 ATS, 04 NE 11-3-2 ATS, 2008 NYG 12-4 ATS, 17 NE 11-5 ATS, 13 SF 11-5 ATS, 11 GB 11-5 ATS
• Eagles have lost three consecutive games SU now.
  Their first three-game losing streak since 2021
• Eagles have lost three consecutive games SU after starting 10-1 SU on the season.
  Teams who are above .500 SU, who have lost at least three straight games are 21-13-2 ATS last 20 years.
• When the Eagles are trailing, they can get back in the game quick.
  Since December 2021, the Eagles are 8-6 SU in their last 14 games when trailing by 10 points or more at any point, including 4-2 SU this season.
  All other teams are 109-542-2 SU (16.7%) in that spot since the start of 2021.
• + Eagles have jut two wins have 10+ pts this season. Fewest ever for a Super Bowl winner is three done twice (1982 Wash, 2015 Den).
  10 of the last 11 SB champs have had 6 or more such games
• Boston Scott has 11 TDs in nine career games vs. Giants. He’s scored every single game he’s played vs. New York.
  2023: ? | 2022-23: +320, +250, +750 | 2021: +350, +310 | 2020: 6, 7 | 2019: 8, 9
• The Eagles' schedule entering Week 16 has been brutal … and they went 3-3 SU in those games.
  vs. DAL (W), at KC (W), vs. BUF (W), vs. SF (L), at DAL (L), at SEA (L)
• Impact of Lane Johnson.
  Without him: 14-23 SU
  With him: 94-55-1 SU
• Hurts is 20-12 against the first half spread over the last two seasons. Hurts is just 1-6 1H ATS in his last seven starts.
• Eagles are 15-7 1H ML in last 22. Hurts is 28-21-3 1H ML in his career.
  Since start of last season, Eagles are 23-10-1 1H ML – tied for the second-most 1H ML wins in NFL behind the Ravens (24)
• Hurts has excelled at home, and has been less than fantastic on the road.
  Home: 17-7-1 ATS (second of 96 QBs since 2020)
  Road/Neutral: 10-16-1 ATS (99th of 100 QBs since 2020)
  All other PHI QBs in the last 20 years are 71-82-1 ATS at home and 81-70-2 ATS road/neutral.
• Hurts doesn’t love facing good offenses. Eagles are 10-12 SU vs. team scoring 24 PPG or more on the year and 22-5 SU under that mark.
• Hurts is just 7-8 SU, 6-9 ATS after a SU loss, including just 4-6 SU on road.
• At home as a favorite, Hurts is 17-1 SU. His only loss was against Taylor Heinicke.
  Hurts is 1-6 SU as a home dog in his career.
• Hurts is 7-8-2 ATS vs. NFC East and 20-15 ATS vs. all other divisions
  Hurts began his career 0-4 SU vs. NFC East, he is 11-2 SU since
  Hurts career vs. Giants: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS at home)
• Good third down teams tend to cover the spread. In November or later, teams with a 45% third down rate or higher, facing a team below that threshold, is 321-257-20 ATS (55.5%) last 20 years.
  Week 16: BUF, DAL, KC, SF, PHI
• Teams to travel from PT to ET have had 1H success going 112-71-3 1H ATS (61.2%) since 2017.
  Week 16: WAS, PHI
• Fade good SU and ATS teams. In December or later, teams with a 70%+ win percentage & 60%+ cover percentage are 211-260-10 ATS (44.8%) last 20 years.
  Week 16: DET, BAL, PHI

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Ravens at 49ers | Monday, Dec. 25

8:15pm ET | ABC

SF -6 | 46.5

Ravens

• Clinched playoff berth.
  Can clinch the division with: Win + CLE loss
• Ravens are 19-5 ATS as a dog since 2018 – second-best in the NFL in that span behind the Steelers. As a favorite in that span? 36-41 ATS.
  Ravens are 19-4 ATS in their last 23 games
• Harbaugh as an underdog: 54-34-3 ATS – second-best of any coach in NFL last 20 years, behind just Mike Tomlin.
• Lamar Jackson as a dog: 8-5 SU, 11-2 ATS (31-35 ATS as a favorite)
  ATS: Jackson’s 84.6% ATS win percentage as an underdog is the second-highest in the last 20 years for QB with at least 10 starts as a dog (Mahomes 8-1-1 ATS as a dog).
  Jackson is three games above .500 SU as a dog. If he wins, he'll join a list of QBs who are four games above .500 SU as a dog in the last 20 years: Jackson, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, Patrick Mahomes.

Biggest Underdog of Lamar Jackson's NFL Career (80 total starts)
+6.5 — at Chiefs, 2018 (L, 27-24)
+𝟓.𝟓 — 𝐚𝐭 𝟒𝟗𝐞𝐫𝐬, 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲
+4.5 — at Chiefs, 2019 (L, 33-28)

• Ravens trailed the Rams 22-20 entering fourth quarter of their Week 14 game breaking their streak of 12 straight games to begin the season. Ravens led the Jaguars entering the fourth last week.

Most Consecutive Games Entering 4Q With Lead To Begin Season
16, 1998 MIN, 15-1
13, 2011 GB, 15-1
12, 2023 BAL, 8-3
12, 1998 DEN, 14-2
10, 1984 MIA, 14-2
+ Ravens' blown leads …
They've blown leads in all three losses, including two double-digit leads
Since 2022 Season: Six losses with a double-digit lead – tied for the most in NFL with Bears and Raiders. (Chargers have five.)
Since 2021 Season: Eight losses with a double-digit lead – tied for the most in NFL with Bears. No other team has more than six.
+ Lamar is 15-6 SU (13-8 ATS) in night games. He’s won seven straight night games SU and nine of his last 10.
Lamar at night: at home: 8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS | on road: 7-4 SU/ATS
+ Lamar in PT: 4-1 ATS | all other time zones: 38-36 ATS
In PT/MT: 5-2 ATS
+ Lamar has done well vs. good defenses. Ravens are 6-2 SU/ATS with Lamar vs. teams allowing 17 PPG or less on season.
+ Ravens have lost Mark Andrews for the foreseeable future.
Ravens are 58-34 SU when Andrews gets at least one target in a game. Baltimore is actually 7-2 SU without Andrews since he joined the team.
+ Ravens are 11-1-2 on the first quarter moneyline this season and they are 20-7-5 1Q ML last two seasons. Their 10 1Q ML wins is most in NFL this year.
+ Harbaugh has struggled after a great defensive performance.
After allowing 3 points or less: 3-10-1 ATS
After allowing 6 points or less: 6-15-2 ATS
After allowing 9 points or less: 17-25-3 ATS
+ Harbaugh is 20 games over .500 ATS as an underdog and two games under .500 ATS as a favorite.
+ Harbaugh is 157-109-9 1H ATS with $100 bettor up $3,985, most of any coach in NFL since 2005.
With Jackson and Joe Flacco, Harbaugh is 145-102-9 1H ATS.
+ Over the past three seasons, Jackson is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog but 13-19 ATS as a favorite, including 6-16 ATS when favored by more than 3 points.
+ Jackson is 20-6 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog. In all other spots he is 22-31 ATS career.
+ Jackson covers the 1H spread on the road/neutral, he’s 28-10-1 1H ATS and 21-18-1 1H ATS at home.
Between 2021-23, he’s 21-16-1 1H ATS. From 2018-20, he was 28-12-1 1H ATS.
+ When Jackson faces team under .500 SU, he’s 28-4 SU, 16-16 ATS.
He’s 20-13 SU and 20-13 ATS when facing team above .500 SU
+ Jackson has faced the NFC in 20 games, he is 19-1 SU, 9-11 ATS. His one loss came vs. Giants last season.
His 95% win percentage is the best by any QB against the opposing conference since the 1970 merger. He’s 38-21 SU, 33-26 ATS vs. AFC
+ Teams going from ET to PT to play on the road have performed well recently – going 73-52-5 ATS (58.4%) since 2016.
Week 16: BUF, BAL
+ Fade good SU and ATS teams. In December or later, teams with a 70%+ win percentage & 60%+ cover percentage are 211-260-10 ATS (44.8%) last 20 years.
Week 16: DET, BAL, PHI
+ Expect a low scoring game? When both teams are on extended rest, the under is 106-51-1 (68%) since 2018, including 30-9 so far this season.
Week 16: DET/MIN, BAL/SF, LV/KC
+ Really good teams who are listed as underdogs late in the season have struggled. Teams with a 70%+ win percentage in December or later, who are listed as dogs are 48-72-3 ATS (40%) in the regular season.
Week 16: DAL, BAL

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49ers

• 49ers have clinched the NFC West.
  SF can clinch No. 1 seed & homefield with:
  Win and PHI, DAL, DET loss
• 49ers have dominated their opponents in wins.
  49ers now have eight wins of 16 or more points this season (T-DAL for most this year). Eight wins of 16-plus points through 14 games is the most since 2007 Patriots.
  Their 10 wins by double-digits through 14 games for 49ers is most since 2007 Patriots.
  The record for double-digit wins in a season during the Super Bowl era is 13 by the 1999 Rams.
• Brock Purdy is the sole favorite to win MVP. He is the 6th different player to be sole favorite to win MVP this season (Dak, Hurts, Mahomes, Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa).
  Purdy is the seventh different QB to be listed as the favorite or co-favorite to win the MVP award already this season: Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy
• Dolphins offense is no longer the NFL leader in YPP after starting at a historical pace. 49ers lead by a small margin now.
  Highest YPP thru 14 games in SB era:
  2000 Rams: 7.02, 2004 Colts: 6.82, 2023 49ers: 6.79, 2018 Chiefs: 6.78, 2023 Dolphins: 6.63
• When their stars are healthy. When Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey are starting, 49ers are 19-2 SU, 15-6 ATS
• One of two teams this season still favored in every game: KC, SF
• Purdy is 10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS at home, just 8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS on road.
• Shanahan in night games with 49ers: 18-14 ATS
  11-12 ATS as favorite | 7-2 ATS as underdog
• Brock Purdy has made six starts at night for the 49ers. He is 5-1 SU/ATS in those games – best 49ers QB ATS at night last 20 years.
  Purdy was 6-0 SU at home in night games at Iowa State
• 49ers after scoring 30 pts or more:
  Under Shanahan, 27-15 SU, 22-20 ATS
  Since start of 2022: 15-2 SU, 10-7 ATS
• In games Christian McCaffrey has started since last season, the 49ers are 23-4 SU, 18-9 ATS. In those 27 games, McCaffrey has 33 total TDs.
• Christian McCaffrey has scored more offensive touchdowns than three NFL teams this season
  18 TDs – Giants
  16 TDs – Panthers
  13 TDs – Jets
• 49ers record this season SU, ATS
  Home: 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS
  Road: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS
• Most profitable 49ers QB ATS last 20 years: Garoppolo 35-25-1 ATS, Shaun Hill 12-4 ATS, Purdy 14-8 ATS
• 49ers are 33-21 ATS last three seasons – fourth-most profitable team in NFL (DET, DAL, CIN, SF)
• Under Kyle Shanahan, the San Francisco 49ers are 0-37 when trailing by 8 or more points in the fourth quarter.
• Kyle Shanahan is 1-31 when trailing by 3+ points entering the fourth quarter.
• Purdy in October or later at Iowa State and with 49ers: 25-12 SU at Iowa St and 15-4 SU with the 49ers (40-16 SU)
• Kyle Shanahan vs NFC West: 24-18-1 ATS | vs. non-divisional opp: 41-37 ATS
• After a Shanahan, 49ers team faces an NFC West opponent, San Francisco is 26-11-1 ATS in their next game.
  Best coaches ATS off divisional game last 20 years: Belichick, Reid, Harbaugh, Shanahan
• Brock Purdy has 3,553 passing yards on just 359 passes this year.
  He's averaging 9.9 yards per attempt, which is the highest average by any passer with 100+ pass attempts since 1966
  It's a hair ahead of Kurt Warner's ridiculous 9.9 Y/A average in 11 games in 2000
  Purdy 9.8969 | Warner 9.8818
• Good third down teams tend to cover the spread. In November or later, teams with a 45% third down rate or higher, facing a team below that threshold, is 321-257-20 ATS (55.5%) last 20 years.
  Week 16: BUF, DAL, KC, SF, PHI
• Ravens and 49ers are both beating their opponents this season by 7+ PPG and they face off in Week 16. When two teams meet, both with this high a win margin, the favorite is 91-116-4 ATS (44%) last 20 years.
  Week 16: MIA, SF
• When two teams meet winning by 7+ PPG on the year in November or later, favorite is 50-72-2 ATS (41%) last 20 years.
  Week 16: MIA, SF

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NFL Public Sides & Line Moves ⤵️

Biggest NFL Week 16 Public Sides
Packers (-4) at CAR					71% of bets
Eagles (-13.5) vs. NYG					67% of bets

Biggest NFL Week 16 Line Moves
Bills (-1 to -12) at LAC
Buccaneers (+3.5 to +1) vs. JAC

NFL Ticket Count & Public Totals ⤵️

Most Bet Games By Ticket Count in Week 16
Ravens at 49ers (-6)					75k bets
Lions at Vikings (+3)					60k bets

Biggest NFL Week 16 Public Totals
WAS-NYJ (O/U: 37)					91% of bets to under
NE-DEN (O/U: 35.5)					85% of bets to under

System: After both teams go over, look for unders with higher totals.

Matches: DET/MIN

$$$: After Both Over, Go Under, Higher Total

the game was played during the 2023-24 or 2022-23 or 2021-22 or 2020-21 or 2019-20 season

the game is played during the Regular or Postseason season

betting on the Under

the home team's previous game OU margin is between 0.5 and 100

the visitor's previous game OU margin is between 0.5 and 100

the closing total is between 45 and 100

$1,855

WON

102-76-3

RECORD

57%

WIN%

View System

System: An Action Network PRO System for betting teams off blowouts.

Matches: LAC

PRO: Dogs After Blowout

the game is played during the Regular season

the spread is between 3 and 30

the team's previous game margin is between -100 and -20

$6,543

WON

328-241-13

RECORD

58%

WIN%

View System

System: Teams with multiple bad offensive performances tend to exceed expectations in their next game.

Matches: CAR

$$$: B2B Bad Offense, Dog 3

the spread is between 3 and 100

the team's 2 Game Points streak is between 0 and 10

the game is played during the Postseason or Regular season

$1,880

WON

105-79-4

RECORD

57%

WIN%

View System

Below is the 2023 Anytime TD sheet — which encompasses every player to score a TD in 2023 so far and their total units for the entire season. Notes below from Gilles Gallant.

Now for the "First TD data." Below is an updated tracking sheet for every player to score the first TD of the game this season, including players and odds for "team first TD" for each and every week in 2023.

League Trends ⤵️

Momentum or Fade Spot?

Bear vs. Bull

• It is smart to fade bad teams off a recent win. Teams 1-4 SU in their last five games, coming off a win are 79-140-1 SU (36.1%) last 20 years. 0-8 SU this season and 3-17 SU last two years.
  Week 16: CAR, SEA

Thursday Issues

Road Cooking

• Thursday home teams are just 32-36 SU, 26-42 ATS since 2020, including 23-37 ATS in night Thursday games (worst of any day of week for home teams at night).
  Since 2020, Thursday home teams at night 23-37 ATS. All other days of the week, 87-77-3 ATS.
• Bet home teams on Thursday night? Since 2020, they are only 30-30 SU. They are 99-68 SU (59%) on all other nights.

Run The Table

Going For Over

• Chiefs go under their preseason win total with a loss Monday.
  Chiefs are 9-1 to their win total over in the last 10 years.
  Andy Reid win total results with KC/PHI: 9-1 over w/ KC | 9-4-1 over w/ PHI (18-5-1 overall to over)

Super Bowl Futures ⤵️

Biggest Super Bowl Riser

Buffalo Bills: 12-1 (BUF was 35-1 to win SB entering Week 13)

Biggest Super Bowl Faller

Green Bay Packers: 200-1 (GB was 125-1 to win SB last week)

Win Total Tracker ⤵️

NFL Win Total Grid and Progress

Trending Up 📈
Colts ✅					8-6	Win Total: 6.5
Texans ✅					8-6	Win Total: 6.5
Buccaneers ✅					7-7	Win Total: 6.5
Rams ✅					7-7	Win Total: 6.5
Lions ✅					10-4	Win Total: 9.5
Dolphins ✅					10-4	Win Total: 9.5
Cowboys ✅					10-4	Win Total: 9.5
49ers ✅					11-3	Win Total: 10.5
Ravens ✅					11-3	Win Total: 10.5
Browns					9-5	Win Total: 9.5
Raiders					6-8	Win Total: 6.5
Eagles					10-4	Win Total: 11.5
Jaguars					8-6	Win Total: 9.5
Broncos					7-7	Win Total: 8.5
Seahawks					7-7	Win Total: 8.5
Steelers					7-7	Win Total: 8.5
Vikings					7-7	Win Total: 8.5

Trending Down 📉
Packers					6-8	Win Total: 7.5
Cardinals					3-11	Win Total: 4.5
Chiefs					9-5	Win Total: 11.5
Bills					8-6	Win Total: 10.5
Saints					7-7	Win Total: 9.5
Falcons					6-8	Win Total: 8.5
Giants					5-9	Win Total: 7.5
Bears					5-9	Win Total: 7.5
Titans					5-9	Win Total: 7.5
Commanders					4-10	Win Total: 6.5
Bengals ❌					7-6	Win Total: 6.5
Chargers ❌					5-9	Win Total: 9.5
Jets ❌					5-9	Win Total: 9.5
Patriots ❌					3-11	Win Total: 7.5
Panthers ❌					2-12	Win Total: 7.5

ATS Standings & Stat Sheet ⤵️

Award Betting Progress ⤵️

NFL Awards Matrix

	Leader	2nd In Odds	3rd In Odds
NFL MVP	Brock Purdy (-225)	Lamar Jackson (+500)	Dak Prescott (+700)
Offensive POY	Christian McCaffrey (-155)	Tyreek Hill (+110)	A.J. Brown (+5000)
Defensive POY	Micah Parsons (+100)	Myles Garrett (+165)	T.J. Watt (+400)
Offensive ROY	CJ Stroud (-3000)	Jahmyr Gibbs (+1800)	Puka Nacua (+1800)
Defensive ROY	Jalen Carter (-1200)	Devon Witherspoon (+1200)	Will Anderson (+1400)
Comeback POY	Damar Hamlin (-600)	Tua Tagovailoa (+1200)	Joe Flacco (+1200)
Coach Of The Year	Dan Campbell (+275)	DeMeco Ryans (+300)	Shane Steichen (+300)
Updated as of Dec. 19th

Full NFL betting awards listed via BetMGM:

• Brock Purdy is now the odds-on favorite to win NFL MVP. He's the sixth different QB to be solo favorite to win the award this season: Prescott, Hurts, Mahomes, Allen, Tagovailoa.
• Christian McCaffrey (OPOY), Jalen Carter (DROY), CJ Stroud (OROY), Damar Hamlin (CPOY) are all odds-on favorites to win their respective awards.

Season Stat Leader Betting Progress ⤵️

NFL Stat Leader Matrix

	Leader	2nd In Odds	3rd In Odds
Pass Yds	Tua Tagovailoa (+2000): Leader	Brock Purdy (+6600): -126	Jared Goff (+2500): -194
Pass TD	Brock Purdy (+5000): Leader	Dak Prescott (+2000): -1	Jared Goff (+2000): -3
INT	Sam Howell (N/A): Leader	Josh Allen (+1000): -1	Patrick Mahomes (+2500): -2
Rec. Yds	Tyreek Hill (+950): Leader	A.J. Brown (+1800): -228	CeeDee Lamb (+1800): -236
Rec. TD	Tyreek Hill (+1400): Leader	Mike Evans (+3000): -1	Courtland Sutton (+8000): -2
Receptions	Keenan Allen (+2200): Leader	CeeDee Lamb (+2200): -5	Michael Pittman Jr. (+10000): -9
Rush TD	Raheem Mostert (+4000): Leader	Jalen Hurts (+800): -4	Christian McCaffrey (+2200): -5
Sacks	T.J. Watt (+850): Leader	Danielle Hunter (+3000): -0.5	Khalil Mack (+5000): -1.0
Tackles	Foyesade Oluokun (+650): Leader	Zaire Franklin (+2000): -10	Alex Singleton (+1200): -14
INT	DaRon Bland (N/A): Leader	Geno Stone (N/A): -2	Jessie Bates III (+3400): -3
Kick Pts	Brandon Aubrey (N/A): Leader	Dustin Hopkins (+3000): -12	Justin Tucker (+500): -13
Updated as of Dec. 19th

Trivia Instructions

For this weeks trivia question, we are just looking for one answer. Click the button below to reveal the right answer

Trivia Question: Lamar Jackson is 4-2 SU as an underdog in the past three seasons (since 2021). Name the two QBs to beat him straight up when he (Lamar) is listed as an underdog.

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