Week 15 means no more bye weeks, four games to go, and a huge NFL slate ahead.
If you want a Super Bowl preview, we've got two late Sunday afternoon. Buffalo and Detroit play what could be the game of the season, and don't overlook Steelers-Eagles in a Pennsylvania rivalry game between two contenders too.
If you prefer high-leverage playoff-feel games with teams looking to stave off elimination, we've got a few of those too. It doesn't get much higher leverage than Colts-Broncos, an under I already grabbed with both coming out of the bye, while the Dolphins fight for their lives against the Texans and Sunday night renews a fun Packers-Seahawks rivalry with both teams eyeing a sleeper run in the NFC.
It's an absolutely loaded Sunday slate, which means plenty of football to bet on.
Last week was rough. With nearly 10 units lost on a disastrous weekend, it was by far our worst of the season. But we're still up almost 15 units and over 8% ROI on the year with some tasty futures out there too, so let's get back on the horse and find some Week 15 winners.
We've got a couple of fun player prop escalators, some long shot angles on that monster Bills-Lions game, and a bunch of sides — some of them ugly. Let's get to the picks.
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Texans vs. Dolphins
I have these teams rated about equal, so this is less about the matchup and more about the spot.
Miami is tired, coming off an exhausting high-octane overtime division game, while the Texans are rested off a bye week. Home favorite of seven or fewer coming off a bye week are 83-63-22 ATS (57%) in the first half, a great spot to back a team with extra time to come out hot and grab an early lead.
That's been the right way to bet Houston all season. The Texans are 11-2 ATS in the first half but 2-11 ATS after halftime. The underlying metrics back those numbers up. Houston is the best defense in the league by DVOA in the first half and above average offensively but drops to the bottom quarter of the league on offense and fringe top-10 defense in the second half.
Miami has started slow and is a bottom-five offensive in the first half, and the Dolphins are 5-8 ATS in the first half. Meanwhile, as disappointing as the Texans offense has been, Bobby Slowik has had answers early with his scripted plays, and that can only improve coming out of the bye with extra time to prepare. Houston has struggled to move the ball on early downs, when Miami ranks in the bottom five defensively.
Houston's defense is still the best unit in this game, and DeMeco Ryans had an extra week to prep for Mike McDaniel and an offense that still has to prove it can't be found out against top defenses.
I don't want to mess with garbage time or the Texans' weekly second-half fade. Play the first-half line, get your money, and get out.
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Commanders vs. Saints
The Saints run defense has been terrible all year at 31st in DVOA, but they've been especially bad since Week 6. New Orleans ranks in the bottom three against the run since then in EPA per rush and Success Rate, and Washington is top five rushing in those metrics over the same stretch.
Brian Robinson has quietly become very important for this Commanders offense. Washington is 7-2 with Robinson healthy but 1-3 with him out, with Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols combining for under 3.2 YPC in those four games without Robinson.
Ekeler is on IR now and the Commanders should run plenty with a lead here. Robinson averages 15 carries for 70 yards in his nine healthy games and has scored a touchdown in seven of them (78%), and he's hit 100 yards on the ground three times.
Nine of 13 opposing RB1s have found the endzone against the Saints this season, including eight of the last nine. Play a Robinson Anytime TD at -120 (bet365) as the main play here.
The Saints have allowed five 100-yard rushing games, so play that too at +300 (bet365), and you can sprinkle a huge Robinson game at 100 yards and 2+ TDs at +1600, with three RBs having done that against the Saints already this season.
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Browns vs. Chiefs
I really wanted to back the Browns this week. Jim Schwartz's pass rush can beat these vulnerable Chiefs tackles off the edge, and Jameis Winston can light up this fading pass defense. But I wanted Browns +6 or even +7 and that's not happening, so let's pivot to a Winston passing yards escalator.
Kansas City's pass defense is faltering badly. The Chiefs rank in the bottom three by DVOA since CB Jaylen Watson went out, and they're in the bottom 10 on the season against the deep ball.
Winston will be chucking. He's thrown at least 41 times in five of six starts with the Browns, the one exception being that snowy Thursday night game against Pittsburgh when the weather had other plans. Now, the weather for this game looks ugly too — winds near 20 MPH and a decent chance of rain — but weather can change in a hurry, and that weather gave us a big boost on these odds too, so that can play both ways.
Winston's passing attempts line is at 34.5. He's gone well over all but the snow game, so a more responsible play might just be that attempts over. But if Winston really does throw 41 times like all the other games and hits his 7.3 YPA on the season, that's 299 yards.
Aidan O'Connell just threw for 340 yards on this Chiefs defense on Black Friday. Winston has six starts this season and has already posted 334 yards against the Ravens, 395 on the Saints, and 497 against a really good Broncos defense.
That's a 50-50 shot so far at 334 yards, so let's take the escalator. You don't want to mess with median outcomes in a weather game where an over could be DOA. Take 300+ yards at +450 at DraftKings, then sprinkle 350+ at +1200 and 375+ at +1650 at bet365.
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Jets vs. Jaguars
This is the only game on the schedule this weekend between two teams already eliminated, but we don't have to watch the game to make money.
The Jaguars are the worst defense in the league by DVOA, and now the offense might be just as bad with Mac Jones at quarterback. In four games starting with Jacksonville, Mac's offense has scored 6, 7, 6*, and 10 points, with two late garbage-time TDs in a blowout in that one asterisked game.
Outside of those two meaningless drives, Jacksonville has scored 29 points in 36 Mac Jones drives. Horrifying.
I looked at Jacksonville's team under, but if the Jags really only score seven or 10 points, the Jets should win this game and cover. New York has been wildly disappointing, but the Jets are much more mid than bad, and they're just better at everything than Jacksonville.
Mac Jones is an ugly 6-16 ATS as an underdog in his career (27%), and this Jets defense is more than familiar with him after his days in the AFC East.
Obviously, take Jets -3 if available, but don't be intimidated by -3.5 if necessary. Non-division road favorites of 3.5 points are 57% ATS over the past two decades.
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Cowboys vs. Panthers
Come on, we're really making Bryce Young a field goal favorite now? The Panthers? Really??
This is the first time Carolina has been favored at all since way back in 2022. And yeah, Carolina has covered five straight, and yes, the Panthers hung with the Chiefs, Bucs, and Eagles all the way and probably should've won at least one of those games. But this is the top of the market on Carolina now, and this price has simply gone too far.
Chuba Hubbard should run on Dallas, but Rico Dowdle will run plenty on Carolina's league-worst run defense too. The Cowboys have been far better on the road this season, and this team just went blow-for-blow with a quality Bengals team on Monday night, and why? Because the Cowboys defense is still pretty solid, easily the best unit in this game unless you count special teams, where Dallas has an even bigger edge.
Carolina has covered a -3 spread exactly one time in the last two seasons — that's once in the last 30 games. This was Dallas -1 on Sunday morning, and now it's not only crossed over to Carolina, it got all the way to the key number and is even plus juice at some books and could get to -3.5 by kickoff.
It's gross, but I'm taking Dallas on principle.
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Ravens vs. Giants
If you're looking for an on-field case for this pick, I don't have one.
The Giants suck and should actively want a loss for tanking purposes, and Tommy DeVito is back to lead the charge. The Ravens are rested off the bye week and still as good as any team in the league at their best. I literally wrote an article this week backing a Ravens +1100 Super Bowl ticket!!
Even so, this is almost an auto-bet for me at this long number.
Lamar Jackson is 1-5 ATS off the bye and has been poor as a big favorite, Brian Daboll's teams have been good as big underdogs. I make this line closer to Ravens -12.5 than -16.5 and Baltimore already lost to both the Raiders and Browns this season. If this is ugly and close, within single digits, why not root for the hilarious outcome where Tommy DeVito gets a win that ruins both teams' seasons?
This season, underdogs of +275 or longer are 10-24 straight up with a 23% ROI on the moneyline. Most of those wins came by much shorter underdogs, though.
Since 2018, underdogs priced between +750 and +1000 like these Giants are 4-15 SU. The average margin in those games is a 12.6-point win by the favorite — exactly where I have this line — but the ROI on those moneyline dogs is an incredible 96%.
If you bet this, be prepared for the very real scenario where Baltimore is up 24-3 at the half and you feel like the dumbest bettor on earth. Scared money doesn't make money.
When a line gets this long and this unlikely in a weird sport with an oblong ball, just close your eyes and fire.
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Steelers vs. Eagles
The Keystone State rivalry has been dominated by the home team, with the home squad 16-3 in the Super Bowl era in this rivalry and no road win in regulation since 1988.
We think of the Steelers as having a great defense and great coaching plus a few Russell Wilson moon balls, but are we sure this defense is great? Pittsburgh is barely top quarter of the league by DVOA and about league average against the run, and that run defense has been cratering badly.
Over the last six weeks, the Steelers rank top three in pass defense but in the bottom three against the run by DVOA, and they're in the bottom three by EPA and Success Rate over that stretch too. This is the exact wrong matchup for a sneaky bad run defense against the league's run-heaviest attack and best run-blocking line in the league.
Besides, for all the talk this week about Philadelphia's passing, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have a big advantage in their matchups too. Pittsburgh's great pass defense is mostly an elite pass rush, which Philadelphia can mitigate with its great blocking, but the Steelers have maybe a bottom-five set of corners in the league.
On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh may also have a hard time moving the ball. The Steelers just don't have a ton of weapons, especially with George Pickens out, and Philadelphia is the best defense in the league against the deep ball and that Russell Wilson moonshot.
Not every underdog spot is an automatic Rah Rah play for Pittsburgh. Those Rah Rah trends are better at home, better in the division, and better off a loss — none of which are the case here.
Jalen Hurts is 18-9 ATS against teams over .500, and when two teams with a win rate of at least 70% play in December or later, the favorite is 34-17-3 ATS over the past two decades, with both trends hitting two-thirds of the time for the Eagles.
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Buccaneers vs. Chargers
You may want to wait to play this one with the line on the cusp of -2.5 below the key number, and with some question marks about Justin Herbert's ankle, but I like it either way and make this closer to Chargers -6, even without any real home-field advantage for LA.
The Bucs are quietly fading but no one has really noticed yet after three straight wins over blah Giants, Panthers, and Raiders teams. Tampa Bay is a fringe bottom-10 team over the last six weeks, falling to around league-average on offense and bottom-10 on defense, including dropping to the bottom five against the pass.
Antoine Winfield is a huge loss for this defense, leaving the Bucs without both starting safeties with Jordan Whitehead sidelined. Bucky Irving is also a question mark, and he's been so important to an improved Bucs rushing attack. The Chargers are a top-10 offense at home and the defense has been great against WR1s, which sets up well against Mike Evans with no Chris Godwin around.
If you want to duck the key number, I don't mind a first-half play. The Chargers are much better in the first half at 9-4 ATS, and the Bucs are much better after halftime.
I'll stick with the full game. Baker Mayfield is 16-25-1 ATS in his career (39%) against teams above .500, and Jim Harbaugh is 64% ATS as an NFL favorite, including 8-1 this year. Harbaugh is an incredible 25-6 ATS as a favorite of under six, covering 81% of the time by over a touchdown!
These teams are just not in the same weight class, and Harbaugh makes the difference.
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Bills vs. Lions
What a fun game — and an impossibly difficult one to cap.
The Lions come off extra rest here against a Bills defense that has to be exhausted after a 44-42 game against the Rams, but Detroit played a tough, physical game itself and faces a number of defensive injuries. It's a bit of a letdown spot for both teams on the schedule, with the sneaky truth that this actually means a bit less than you'd think for both teams as a non-conference battle, especially the Lions.
The Lions remain nearly invincible playing indoors with Jared Goff at 32-11-1 ATS (74%), and don't overlook their huge special teams advantage here. Goff could be a hot MVP name Monday morning if he beats MVP favorite Josh Allen head-to-head here, but are you sure you trust Goff in a big game or this banged-up Lions defense against an elite QB?
The one thing that seems certain in this game is points, with the over getting hammered this week from 50.5 on the lookahead all the way to 54.5 or even 55 at times.
No one in their right mind would want to bet against these two offenses the way they're playing right now and snag an under ticket — that's exactly why we have to.
Dan Campbell's teams are 10-6 to the under with a total at 51 or above (63%), and Jared Goff's are 19-11 (63%), the best active QB, in that scenario. Sean McDermott road unders are 61%.
Since 2017, when the total rises over a point to 53 or higher, NFL games are 37-25-1 to the under (60%). Since 2021, games at 54 and above are 11-5 to the under (69%) by almost a touchdowns, including 6-1 to the under by a full 14 PPG when at least 55% of the best are on the over — and we're above 70% on the over here, and steaming.
It's ugly and it doesn't make football sense, but hold your breath and bet the under 54.5.
I don't need a side on what should be a great, competitive game, but I will add a couple of long shots.
The Lions are 11-2 ATS in the first half and have been incredible in the second quarter, while the Bills are 11-2 ATS in the second half, with Josh Allen a second-half god at 66% ATS for his career. Allen is 14-17 SU as an underdog in his career, with a 31% ROI on the moneyline.
Follow the trends and play a negatively-correlated SGP: Lions first-half moneyline plus a Bills full-game moneyline win at +675 (DraftKings).
If the Bills do win, Buffalo's chances at the AFC 1-seed go way up. This is by far the toughest Bills game left, with just Pats, Jets, Pats after this, so Buffalo has a great chance to win out with a W and has the tiebreak head-to-head against the Chiefs.
A Bills win would also shake up the NFC 1-seed race since it simultaneously means a Lions loss. Detroit would still have the tiebreak for now against Philadelphia and Minnesota, but both 1-seeds would effectively be down to a one-game margin in both conferences.
Bet365 is letting us parlay Bills +400 and Eagles +380 to win the 1-seeds at +2300. That's priced as though these bets are independent, but these 1-seed races are highly correlated on this particular game, so that's a bad number we have to bet.
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Seahawks vs. Packers
This line is a head-scratcher to me. I make it around -2 for Seattle with these teams power rated about equal but the Seahawks still getting a pretty real home-field advantage.
Seattle's defense has been outstanding and appears to be getting better. Outside of Weeks 4-6 when the team played three games in 11 days with about half the defensive starters missing, this unit ranks top five overall and against both the run and pass. The defense has also been better at home, and it's a really tough test for an inconsistent Jordan Love against confusing fronts and pressure.
The Packers offense has been a real machine, but Green Bay is at its best staying ahead of the chains on early downs. The Packers rank top three in early down offense on the season and No. 1 over the last six weeks, and that might've been enough to dominate this matchup earlier this season.
Seattle's defense was a mirage early this season. The Seahawks had an outlier elite No. 1 defense on late downs at better than -0.5 EPA per play but were getting thrashed on early downs at No. 31 against both the run and the pass. Early downs are far more predictive going forward, so that was a signal for a fake defense.
But since Week 6, Seattle's defense has stepped up. The defense ranks in the top 10 by EPA per play on early downs and is still top five on late downs too, now balanced and elite across the board, a truly great defense with no outliers — among the best in the league.
Mike Macdonald's unit is still at its best when it gets to third down and goes in attacking mode, and Green Bay's offense has struggled on third and fourth down this season. That's where Seattle wants to win this game.
Seattle's offense has struggled with a terrible run game and unreliable blocking, but the Packers rank in the bottom 10 by Pass Rush Win Rate and Pressure Rate, so that could leave Geno Smith time to cook, especially if Jaire Alexander is limited or out.
Green Bay has some guys returning from injury, so try to wait for Seattle +3 if you can get it. This is a really fun game between two teams good enough to make a real postseason run.
But the wrong team may be favored.
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NFL Week 16 Lookahead: Eagles vs. Commanders
I really like Philadelphia against Pittsburgh as you saw, and I think Washington is overpriced against the Saints, which could lead to a bit of an uglier, closer win. That could swing this line to the key number and past it, and it's already moving at some books.
The Eagles have won six of seven against Washington and 12 of the last 15, with seven of those Philly wins by double digits. These teams just played a month ago and the Eagles dominated, up 26-10 until a garbage TD in the final second, with over two yards a play better and a huge 434-264 yardage differential. Saquon Barkley had a huge game, and Philadelphia's young corners held Terry McLaurin to 10 yards on a single catch.
Washington's defense is by far the weakest unit in this game and has very little chance against this Eagles offense. Jalen Hurts is 67% ATS against teams above .500, and there are some late-season division trends that back Philadelphia here too. Grab the Eagles while it's available below the key number.
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