After the Hall of Fame Game's postponement messed up some of our picks, we're in full swing with the NFL preseason starting tonight.
All of my picks tonight are on PrizePicks. There is at least one pick for each team with three teams featured. Let's get into it!
Note: The numbers next to each pick is my confidence level in each one from 1-10, with 10 being the most confident.
Sean Koerner's NFL Preseason Picks for Tonight on PrizePicks
Panthers vs. Patriots
Joe Milton
Less Than 60.5 Passing Yards (7)
The Patriots plan on using all four quarterback tonight and as I laid out in my quarterback matchup chart, I expect Milton to potentially play the entire 3rd quarter.
This line would imply a projection of about 240 passing yards for the entire game for New England, which is very high for the preseason. Now, Milton could play into the fourth quarter and eat into Bailey Zappe’s potential playing time, but I think the odds of that are less than 50%. I’m expecting one quarter of action for Milton.
Milton is a very raw prospect who played in a very gimmicky Tennessee offense in college. While he has a cannon for an arm, I think he could struggle with accuracy in his NFL debut tonight. He's talented runner, which means I think he will lean on his rushing ability a bit more if a play breaks down. That’s going to eat into his potential passing attempts and lowers his passing yardage projection for me. I have this closer to 53.5 yards
Panthers vs. Patriots
Raheem Blackshear
Raheem Blackshear Less Than 27.5 Rushing Yards (8)
The Panthers will likely dress four running backs tonight and I think we should see each back play roughly a quarter of action. I would guess that Blackshear and Mike Boone will play the first half, with Dillon Johnson and Jaden Shirden getting the second half.
Whether they alternate drives or quarters remains to be seen, but I also think Blackshear could get the start. As I already laid out in my game preview, where I took the Patriots -0.5 for the first quarter, I think that’s when the Pats will have the biggest edge as they will be playing their starters (on both sides of the ball) for most of the first quarter.
So Blackshear could be facing the Patriots' first-string defense, while playing behind the Panthers second-string offensive line, with UDFA Jack Plummer under center.
It’s going to be tougher for the Panthers to move the ball, extend drives and give Blackshear rushing attempts as a result. I also think Blackshear will be involved in the passing game, but dump-offs and screen passes to him will be empty yards for him in this market. I also think we could see the Panthers give some designed rush attempts to WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette, which would come at the expense of Blackshear.
He’s also one of their kick returners, so they'll likely want to give him some reps with the new kickoff rules. That could limit how much time he sees at running back tonight.
I’m projecting him closer to 23.5 and this is a pretty big number because when teams dressed four backs in Week 1 of preseason last season, only 11 of those 48 backs rushed for 28 or more yards.
Panthers vs. Patriots
Feleipe Franks
Less Than 12.5 Receiving Yards (9)
The Panthers will be without Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas for tonight. But the tight end room is pretty crowded after adding Jesper Horsted and Jacob Hollister to the mix a few days ago. I think they will want to give rookie Ja’Tavion Sanders a lot of playing time tonight, so it’ll be 4-5 other tight ends fighting for scraps.
Franks is a former QB who converted to tight end and has one catch for five yards in six preseason appearances in his career. This number is high enough that he could stay below it with one catch. The fact that he may need two receptions to clear this makes this a great play. I would set his median closer to 7.5 because I can’t be sure he’s guaranteed a target tonight.
Lions vs. Giants
Isaiah Williams
Less Than 20.5 Receiving Yards (9)
The Lions will be having a battle for the No. 3 slot tonight, which means we could see Daurice Fountain, Antoine Green and Donovan Peoples-Jones see ample playing time. We could see around six other receivers get snaps that are outside of that battle, including Isaiah Williams.
He’s an undrafted free agent out of Illinois and I’m sure the Lions will give him a decent amount of playing time tonight, but he’s a smaller slot receiver without much speed (4.63 40-time) and could stay below this number with 1-2 receptions. Needing 3+ receptions for a player who is likely on the backend of a nine-man rotation tonight will be tough.
He’s also likely going to play when Hooker, who is more likely to scramble than Sudfeld, is in the game. That could hurt Williams’ target chances.
I’m projecting his median closer to 15.5.
