Patriots vs. Bills Odds & Betting Predictions - December 31, 2023

Patriots at Bills

6:00 pm • CBS

New England Patriots

3-11

21 - 27

Buffalo Bills

11-3

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Patriots 3-11	+14	+14.5-105	o40-112	+750
Bills 11-3	u40	-14.5-115	u40-108	-1200

Sunday 6:00 p.m.

December 31, 2023

Highmark StadiumOrchard Park

Under 51.5 (Live)-120

0.2u

Full game total is toast after a joke of a start. 20 points with very little offense from either team. Small play on what will hopefully be a lower scoring game going forward

BUF -8.5 (Live)-110

0.5u

Why are the Bills such bozos man wtf is this

BUF -14-110

Fading the Pats after a road win - Buffalo mob deep

Under 40.5-110

0.55u

S.Diggs Anytime TD Scorer Yes+155

@charliedisturco

BUF u26.5 Team Total+104

BUF -14.5-105

Under 40.5-118

Under 40.5-110

@The_Oddsmaker

NE +14.5-110

0.91u

E.Elliott Anytime TD Scorer Yes+190

Under 40.5-115

1.15u

NE +14-110

Zappe ⚡️ Hour ⚡️

BUF -13-110

BUF -12-105

1.05u

Stuckey 1

NE +13.5-110

0.91u

BUF -12-110

0.6u

Streak on the line

Over 40.5-110

0.91u

Available at FanDuel. I'm showing value in the Bills' spread at -11.5, but with it being between key numbers, I'd rather just take the game total over. My model has that at 44.3, a good chunk above this mark. As of now, the weather in Buffalo looks great for December with temperatures above freezing and just 9 mph winds. That should allow these offenses to operate at full capacity. Neither defense has been one to write home about, and the Bills have shown they can generate explosives whether they decide to lean on the run or the pass. Pace in this game is middling, so it's nothing to drag things down much. I don't see a ton of reasons to be wary of this number, especially as we get a win on a key number of 41. The Bills could get there by themselves, so this is my preferred route to exposure to them in this spot.

Featured Insight
The Patriots have allowed 5.9 yards per dropback when defending on plays to the left since Week 13 -- 9th-best in NFL; the Bills have thrown for 5.9 yards per attempt on plays to the left side of the field since Week 13 -- 9th-worst in NFL.

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Featured Insight
The Bills have gained at least 5 yards on 45.0% of first down plays since Week 13 -- T-8th-best in NFL; the Patriots have allowed at least 5 yards on 44.0% of first down plays since Week 13 -- T-8th-worst in NFL.

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NFL Public Betting

Bills are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Bills are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Bills are 5-3 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Bills' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Bills' 6 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Bills	9-5	4-2	5-3	7-3	2-2
Patriots	5-8-1	2-3-1	3-4	N/A	5-8-1

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Bills	9-5	5-1	4-4	8-2	1-3
Patriots	9-5	5-1	3-4	N/A	9-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Bills	11-3	N/A	N/A	9-1	2-2
Patriots	3-11	N/A	N/A	N/A	3-11

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Dec 24th	@LAC	W 24-22	-12.5 L	O 44.5	BUF -800
Dec 17th	DAL	W 31-10	-2.5 W	U 49.5	BUF -140
Dec 10th	@KC	W 20-17	+1.5 W	U 49	BUF +105
Nov 26th	@PHI	L 34-37	+2.5 L	O 48.5	PHI +124
Nov 19th	NYJ	W 32-6	-8.5 W	U 39.5	BUF -380

Yannick Ngakoue
LB
Ngakoue is out with personal
Out

Kyle Dugger
S
Dugger is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Christian Barmore
DT
Barmore is questionable with undisclosed
Questionable
Christian Elliss
LB
Elliss is questionable with abdomen
Questionable
Cole Strange
G
Strange is questionable with knee
Questionable
Vederian Lowe
T
Lowe is questionable with shoulder
Questionable
Christian Gonzalez
CB
Gonzalez is questionable with shoulder
Questionable
Alex Austin
CB
Austin is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Jaquelin Roy
DT
Roy is out with foot
Out
Caedan Wallace
OL
Wallace is out with ankle
Out
Javon Baker
WR
Baker is out with concussion
Out

Jordan Phillips
DT
Phillips is out with wrist
Out
Rasul Douglas
CB
Douglas is out with knee
Out
Dawuane Smoot
DE
Smoot is questionable with wrist
Questionable
Taylor Rapp
S
Rapp is questionable with neck
Questionable
Damar Hamlin
S
Hamlin is questionable with back
Questionable
Quintin Morris
TE
Morris is questionable with shoulder
Questionable
Baylon Spector
LB
Spector is questionable with calf
Questionable
Tylan Grable
OL
Grable is out with groin
Out

See more NFL Injuries

Patriots

Total

Bills

294

Total Yards

281

Total Plays

5.5

Yards Per Play

4.1

Patriots

Passing

Bills

209

YDS

169

16/26

Comps/Atts

15/30

6.586

YPA

4.968

0/3

TDs/INTs

0/1

3/18

Sacks/Yards

1/15

Patriots

Rushing

Bills

103

Rush Yards

127

Attempts

4.292

YPC

3.432

TDs

Patriots

Turnovers

Bills

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Patriots

Efficiency

Bills

2/2 100%

Redzone

2/5 40%

4/10 0%

3rd Down

7/15 0%

0/0 0%

4th Down

0/0 0%

Patriots

First Downs

Bills

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Patriots

Misc

Bills

2/20

Penalties/Yards

4/32

27:08

Possession

32:52

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MatchupOverUnder
Patriots 3-11	o12.5-110	u12.5+100
Bills 11-3	o27.5-102	u27.5-116

Patriots vs. Bills Odds & Betting Predictions - December 31, 2023

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