Bills vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Predictions - December 10, 2023

Bills at Chiefs

9:25 pm • CBS

Buffalo Bills

11-3

20 - 17

Kansas City Chiefs

13-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Bills 11-3	+1.5	+1.5-110	o49-110	+105
Chiefs 13-1	u48.5	-1.5-110	u49-110	-125

Sunday 9:25 p.m.

December 10, 2023

GEHA Field at Arrowhead StadiumKansas City

KC +4.5 (Live)-118

BUF +2-110

0.91u

R.Rice o51.5 Rec Yds-115

C.Edwards-Helaire Anytime TD Scorer Yes+155

1.29u

D.Kincaid o36.5 Rec Yds-110

1.1u

Ryanpropz NFL Straight

BUF +1.5-105

1.9u

J.Allen Anytime TD Scorer Yes+165

1.65u

Via Brian Matthews

KC -1.5-107

1.07u

J.Allen o32.5 Rush Yds-120

1.2u

KC -2-107

KC -1-107

@SimonHunterNFL

BUF +2-110

0.91u

Chiefs -120 ML at home should be free

C.Edwards-Helaire u46.5 Rush Yds-115

J.Allen o33.5 Rush Yds-110

0.65u

BUF +100

1.1u

Projection: Bills -109. For more, check out Fantasy Life.

KC -1-110

2.2u

D.Kincaid u16.5 Longest Reception-120

Widely available at -125 Under in 9/11, with only 2 of his 56 catches going for 17+. 5.7 aDOT - significantly lower than the Bills WRs - only 6/64 targets have traveled even 15 air yards. Dawson Knox likely to play, which could cut into Kincaid’s snap share or volume - but even if Knox is out, I love this spot. Chiefs 7th in DVOA vs TEs (FTN Fantasy), and are top 6 in targets, rec and yards allowed to the position.

J.McKinnon o16.5 Rec Yds-119

1.05u

every game every team https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-14-odds-picks-preview-bets-every-game-every-team

J.McKinnon o49.5 Rec Yds+1075

0.5u

Jerick escalator

J.Allen o35.5 Rush Yds-124

$124.00

J.Allen 50+ Rushing Yards+320

0.5u

Every Game Every Team https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-14-odds-picks-preview-bets-every-game-every-team

J.Allen o74.5 Rush Yds+1425

0.25u

Allen escalator

BUF -110

$50.00

KC -1-109

P.Mahomes o0.5 Int+105

0.53u

KC -2.5-110

1.1u

Simon Says

Under 49-110

0.91u

J.Allen o30.5 Rush Yds-110

1.82u

Old faithful! Allen rushing yards in big games. Best bets pod, multi units.

C.Edwards-Helaire Anytime TD Scorer+450

0.3u

Bet at Bet365 on 12/07. Down to -115 at FD and +110 at DK. Jerick McKinnon isnt likely to play. Worth a swing if Bet365 is slow to react.

BUF +118

1.18u

Available at FanDuel. Despite their respective records, both of my models view the Bills as a slightly better team on a neutral field than the Chiefs. Obviously, homefield matters, but I'm still showing value in the Bills' ML at +118. The implied odds there are 45.9%, and I've got the Bills at 49.8% to win. This is due to (primarily) three factors. First, the Bills' offense grades out as better than the Chiefs', based on numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. Second, the Chiefs' defense suffered some key injuries in Week 13 that could leave them thin this week. Third, the Bills are coming off of a bye, which does net them a boost in the model. Add it all up, and you get a game that looks more like a toss-up than the market implies. It's never fun to bet against Mahomes and Andy Reid, but I do agree with what the model is saying here.

KC -3-110

$110.00

Featured Insight
The Bills are averaging 5.0 yards per carry on rushes to the left side of the field __Previous 4 Weeks PresentPerfect__ -- eighth-best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 9.0 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the left to RBs since Week 10 -- worst in NFL.

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Featured Insight
The Bills have run successful plays on 25.0% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season -- tied for ninth-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have pressured opposing QBs on 28.0% of passing plays this season -- fifth-best in NFL.

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NFL Public Betting

Chiefs are 5-0 in their last 5 games.
Chiefs are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Chiefs are 3-3 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Chiefs' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Chiefs' 7 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Chiefs	5-8-1	2-5	3-3-1	4-7-1	1-1
Bills	9-5	4-2	5-3	7-3	2-2

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Chiefs	6-8	3-4	3-4	5-7	1-1
Bills	9-5	5-1	4-4	8-2	1-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Chiefs	13-1	N/A	N/A	12-0	1-1
Bills	11-3	N/A	N/A	9-1	2-2

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Dec 4th	@GB	L 19-27	-5.5 L	O 43.5	GB -245
Nov 26th	@LV	W 31-17	-9.5 W	O 42.5	KC -485
Nov 21st	PHI	L 17-21	-2.5 L	U 46	PHI -145
Nov 5th	MIA	W 21-14	+0.5 W	U 51.5	KC -110
Oct 29th	@DEN	L 9-24	-7 L	U 45.5	DEN -340

D.J. Humphries
T
Humphries is out with hamstring
Out

Patrick Mahomes
QB
Mahomes is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Harrison Butker
K
Butker is questionable with knee
Questionable
Hollywood Brown
WR
Brown is questionable with shoulder
Questionable
Mecole Hardman
WR
Hardman is questionable with knee
Questionable
Rashee Rice
WR
Rice is out with leg
Out
Cam Jones
LB
Jones is questionable with illness
Questionable
Jared Wiley
TE
Wiley is out with knee
Out
Spencer Shrader
K
Shrader is out with hamstring
Out

Jordan Phillips
DT
Phillips is out with wrist
Out
Rasul Douglas
CB
Douglas is out with knee
Out
Dawuane Smoot
DE
Smoot is questionable with wrist
Questionable
Taylor Rapp
S
Rapp is questionable with neck
Questionable
Damar Hamlin
S
Hamlin is questionable with back
Questionable
Quintin Morris
TE
Morris is questionable with shoulder
Questionable
Baylon Spector
LB
Spector is questionable with calf
Questionable
Tylan Grable
OL
Grable is out with groin
Out

See more NFL Injuries

Bills

Total

Chiefs

327

Total Yards

346

Total Plays

4.5

Yards Per Play

5.6

Bills

Passing

Chiefs

233

YDS

271

23/42

Comps/Atts

25/43

4.644

YPA

1/1

TDs/INTs

1/1

3/24

Sacks/Yards

1/7

Bills

Rushing

Chiefs

118

Rush Yards

Attempts

4.214

YPC

4.556

TDs

Bills

Turnovers

Chiefs

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Bills

Efficiency

Chiefs

1/2 50%

Redzone

2/3 66.67%

6/15 0%

3rd Down

6/12 0%

1/1 0%

4th Down

0/1 0%

Bills

First Downs

Chiefs

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Bills

Misc

Chiefs

4/35

Penalties/Yards

7/45

35:21

Possession

24:39

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MatchupOverUnder
Bills 11-3	o24.5+100	u24.5-122
Chiefs 13-1	o24.5-125	u24.5-110

Bills vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Predictions - December 10, 2023

Bills at Chiefs

Buffalo Bills

Kansas City Chiefs

Bills at Chiefs Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

PRO Insights

Bills

Chiefs

Bills vs. Chiefs Previews & Analysis

Bills vs. Chiefs Props: Bets for Allen, Mahomes & Rice

Gallant's Anytime TD Picks & Preview for Week 14

Our Sunday Best Bets for NFL Week 14

Bills vs. Chiefs: Play the Buffalo Moneyline

Bills vs. Chiefs Props

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Prop Odds Comparison

Line Movement Tracker

Bills vs. Chiefs Public Betting Percentages

Bills

Public

Chiefs

Bets%

Money%

Betting Trends

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

Over/Under History

Straight-Up (ML) History

Last 5 Matchups

Chiefs vs. Bills Injury Updates

Chiefs Injuries

Bills Injuries

Bills vs. Chiefs Odds Comparison

Bills at Chiefs Team Totals