Giants vs. Lions Odds & Betting Predictions - November 23, 2025

2nd highest line of the season

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Last week was the perfect storm for Tracy to rack up a 19/88/0 rushing line. The Giants had a -18.3% PROE which was the 3rd most run heavy called game of the entire season. It was the first post-Brian Daboll game with Mike Kafka calling plays and they were able to keep it close before eventually losing 27-20, but they dominated time of possession at close to 36 minutes and ran 69 plays. That is extremely unlikely to repeat here. Against the Lions, it’s a completely different script. Detroit should control time of possession, get out to a big enough lead, and force the Giants to be more pass heavy. It makes perfect sense to fade the Giants run game here and Tracy specifically is a good sell-high spot off a 19 carry game. Tracy continues to concede short yardage and goal line work to Devin Singletary which really lowers his floor in this market. He needs the Giants to stay close and maintain an extreme run heavy approach. I do think Kafka will keep them more run leaning going forward, but something closer to a -2 to -3% PROE, not the extreme we saw last week. They are also expected to trail at a +18% higher rate than their season average which pushes them toward more passing. I’m projecting Tracy closer to 12.1 carries with around a 65% chance to stay under 13.5. I was already prepared to take under 12.5 at around a 56% chance, so getting an extra attempt (even at -132) is a bonus. A more pass heavy script, plus Devin Singletary eating into early down, short yardage, and goal line snaps, lowers Tracy’s ceiling and makes this a strong sell-high spot.

I took Lions -9.5 on the Lookahead last week and though the line hasn't moved toward two TDs yet as expected, I still love the pick. There's no more dead cat bounce for the Giants after firing their coach, and there's no RB1 or WR1 either with Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers nowhere to be found. We'll see if it's Jaxson Dart or Jameis Winston - looks more like Winston at this point with Dart yet to be cleared from concussion protocol - so that would mean QB1 too. But it's the Giants defense that is the real problem here, especially the horrible run defense that ranks dead last by both DVOA and EPA per play. That poor run D just has no shot against Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. The Lions want to bite kneecaps and run the football, and this looks like a get-right spot for this run game. You may want to consider RB overs too. Detroit is better running inside this season but runs more often outside, and that's there the Giants defense is especially bad - advantage Gibbs? Jared Goff has been nearly invincible playing indoors with the Lions at 36–13–1 ATS (73%), and it's not just him. The Lions have the league's best defense by DVOA at home this season too. Detroit is also on an incredible streak, covering 13 straight games after an outright loss. That includes 3–0 this season with wins by 15, 22, and 31. The Lions are also unbeaten as double-digit favorites since the start of last season, including wins by 24, 38, and 46. This is the get-right spot for the Lions, so take Detroit -10 (Caesars) as the team settles in before its Thanksgiving showdown, but don't stop there. When Detroit plays an inferior opponent, things often get ugly. The Lions have seven wins since the start of last season by 22+ points, so play Lions -20.5 at +348 (bet365). They also have four wins by 31+ so Lions -30.5 is worth a shot too at +1100 (FanDuel). Detroit has yet to have a truly monster score line this season but had wins by 38, 38, and 46 last season, so let's take the escalator all the way up. Place the last portion of your bet on Lions -37.5 at +2500 (FanDuel) and let's hope for a Detroit blowout.

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Goff/Campbell off a loss against a bad team that can’t stop the run. Sign me up.

WEEK 12 LOOKAHEAD Nothing super fancy here. I probably don't need to work too hard to tell you why to like the Lions over the Giants. It's the line that's the play here, with FanDuel still offering Lions -9.5 while books like DraftKings are already at -11.5. Ten can still be a key number, and it wouldn't be shocking to see this line push 13 or 14 by kickoff with teaser protection. I like the Lions to beat the Eagles on Sunday night — see above — and the Giants should struggle with the Packers in a bad matchup for Jameis Winston. That leaves a bad team missing its top QB, RB, and WR against a bona fide Super Bowl contender in Detroit, and no more dead cat bounce coming off firing its coach either. The Giants run defense is key here. New York ranks dead last in run defense by both DVOA and EPA per play. The Giants simply haven't stopped opposing runners all season, especially on outside runs where Jahmyr Gibbs thrives. Detroit should run all over the Giants. This line is about what I'd make it in New York, but it should be closer to two TDs in Detroit. Nine straight Lions wins have come by six or more points, so this isn't asking for much more. Grab Lions -9.5 (FanDuel) while it's available.

@wheatonbrando Week 12 Lookahead https://myaction.app/K2Wr1J4liYb