The New York Giants (2-9) and Detroit Lions (6-4) battle in Week 12 of the NFL season today. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET from Ford Field in Detroit, Mich. The game will broadcast on FOX.
The Lions are 13.5-point spread favorites over the Giants (Lions -13.5; -112); the game total is 50.5 (-122o/ +100u). The Giants are +675 road underdogs and the Lions are heavy -1100 moneyline favorites.
Let's get into my Giants vs Lions prediction for today's Week 12 NFC matchup.
New York Giants vs Detroit Lions Predictions, Picks
- Giants vs Lions pick: Over 50.5
My Lions vs. Giants best bet is on the over at 50.5 total points. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Giants vs Lions Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+13.5 -108 | 50.5 -122o / +100u | +675 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-13.5 -112 | 50.5 -122o / +100u | -1100 |
Giants vs Lions Preview, Week 12 Prediction
Jameis Winston will get the start under center for the Giants once again today, and I love that as an over backer.
Winston has always brought a level of volatility to each game he plays in.
He plays an aggressive style and he can make throws downfield that generate points quickly.
There will be more pass attempts from this offense with Winston running the show than would be the case if Jaxson Dart had returned.
Winston was also credited with a 9.1% turnover-worthy throw rate last week against Green Bay, the highest for any single quarterback that has played a full game this year.
Furthermore, Lions head coach Dan Campbell unleashes Jahmyr Gibbs by using outside zone runs at an extremely high rate.
No team in the league defends outside zone worse than the Giants.
The Lions have played four home games this season and three of those games have gone over the posted total.
Backing the over indoors in Detroit on the fast-track of Ford Field will rarely net a loss on investment at season’s end.
The reason for this is quite simple — on a handful of occasions per season, this version of the Lions offense explodes for a bevy of points that gets bettors most of the way to the total by themselves.
Detroit is averaging 34.2 points per game at home this season and now it will welcome the Giants to Ford Field.
The Lions are the best team in the league when it comes to marrying the run with play-action pass, which spells disaster for this New York defense.
The Giants allow 8.3 yards per attempt on play-action plays.
New York runs the highest rate of man coverage in the NFL. Jared Goff is the league’s highest-rated passer against man coverage this season with a rating of 129.1.
We already know Goff thrives inside the friendly confines of Ford Field, but very few matchups would create an environment as good as the one he will find himself in today.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is coming off the most inefficient game of his career, but he has torched man coverage historically.
St. Brown has averaged an astounding 3.0 yards per route run against man defense, commanding a target share above 40%.
The Giants do not have the personnel to slow down the Lions’ top target; slot corner Andru Phillips ranks 83rd out of 110 qualifying cornerbacks in coverage grade, per Pro Football Focus.
The Lions will have their chances to create a short field for their offense or put points up on the board with a defensive score in an instant.
Giants vs Lions Betting Predictions, Analysis
The Giants offense didn’t put up gaudy numbers last week in a close loss to Green Bay, but that was due to the 38 rushing plays they called.
Those runs generated just 3.7 yards per carry.
New York will not have the luxury of calling that many runs against the Lions.
The Giants defense simply cannot hold up versus the Detroit offense.
I expect the Lions to jump out to an early lead and never look back.
It wouldn’t shock me to see Winston approach 40 passes in an attempt to bring his team back in the second half.
I’m surprised oddsmakers haven’t adjusted this total with news Winston is making his second consecutive start.
This total should not be below the key number of 51.
Giants vs Lions Best Bet
- Over 50.5
Giants vs Lions Betting Trends
Giants vs Lions Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Ford Field in Detroit, Mich. |
| Date: | Sunday, Nov. 23 |
| Time: | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | FOX |
For the latest on NFL injuries, be sure to check out our NFL Injury Report page.
