Dolphins vs. Colts Odds & Betting Predictions - October 20, 2024

Miami is 5-1 last 6 in Indy, only failing to cover by 0.5 the one time they didn’t cover. Colts are also 5-1 ATS this year while Miami is 1-4, and I expect both of these stats to regress and head towards their equilibrium by Dolphins covering (+3) this week

Combined for 32 last week

3.35% ev

Downs missed the first 2 games of the season but returned in Week 3 to dominate usage in this offense. He leads the team with a 26.3% target share and nearly 9 targets per game. Since Downs returned, Michael Pittman is at a 19.5% target share and 6.5 targets per game, which is down from 28.3% and 7.5 in Weeks 1-2. Downs seems like the clear No. 1 option. These could be Joe Flacco stats, and the usage will swing back toward Pittman with Anthony Richardson back in command. But what if they're Shane Steichen stats? Pittman posted a hefty 31.4% 1st-read target rate from Weeks 1-2. Since Downs came back, he's led the team with a massive 34% 1st-read target rate. He actually ranks 12th in the league in the metric. Pittman is down at a 21.6% 1st-read target rate from Week 3-6. Flacco and Richardson have targeted their 1st read at nearly identical rates (71.3% vs. 70.1%). The preferred look is going to get fed in this offense, and it appears to be Downs instead of Pittman.

Everywhere I look, I see someone on Hill...rightfully so, but I think there's some really nice value here on Waddle. He's covered this line in every game this season, which means he has in 2/2 w/ Huntley but what really stands out is over the L2 weeks, his TRG share has risen (more than Hill's). Weeks 1-3: 14.43% Target Share Weeks 4-5: 26.92% Target Share The really nice thing here is his TRG share has jumped 12% with Huntley but his low ADOT of ~8-8.5 yards has stayed the same. Huntley's pass attempts line is 26.5 with juice. Assuming he throws 26 passes, Waddle should see 7 TRG in this one (L2 w/ Huntley he's seen 6 and 8 TRG). When Waddle has seen 6+ TRG in a game, he's covered this line in 19/21 games since Hill has joined MIA (90.5%). IND plays zone at the highest rate in the league - last season Waddle was T10 in RECV grade and YPRR vs. zone. That hasn't translated over to this season (yet) but understandably so with all the QB issues. Waddle's ADOT drops to 6.9 (nice) vs. zone coverage, making it easier to haul in catches. L2 weeks w/ Huntley when MIA has faced zone, Waddle leads the team with 11 targets (Hill 9 targets) - accounting for a 30.6% TRG share against zone coverages. It also helps that MIA is coming off a bye week where Huntley had more time to get familiar with the complex MIA offense.

+ev and projections leans to the under giving us value at this number

Caesars