Dolphins vs. Colts Odds & Betting Predictions - October 20, 2024

@TheBMatt

Miami is 5-1 last 6 in Indy, only failing to cover by 0.5 the one time they didn’t cover. Colts are also 5-1 ATS this year while Miami is 1-4, and I expect both of these stats to regress and head towards their equilibrium by Dolphins covering (+3) this week

Combined for 32 last week

3.35% ev

Despite shaky QB play, Waddle has cleared this line in all 5 games this season. McDaniel has gotten him involved in shorter routes / screens to try to get the ball in his hands (aDOT of 8 yards is a few yards lower than each of the L2 seasons). Great spot vs the heavy zone coverage of the Dolphins, who will likely play a lot of 2-deep looks to protect against the long ball. Waddle’s target rate is much higher vs zone, compared to man coverage where Tyreek dominates. The colts are 23rd in FTN’s DVOA vs the pass, and are allowing 12 rec per game to WRs. With Richardson back under center (and still no Taylor), I see them struggling to sustain long drives, which should allow for high offensive volume for MIA.

Downs missed the first 2 games of the season but returned in Week 3 to dominate usage in this offense. He leads the team with a 26.3% target share and nearly 9 targets per game. Since Downs returned, Michael Pittman is at a 19.5% target share and 6.5 targets per game, which is down from 28.3% and 7.5 in Weeks 1-2. Downs seems like the clear No. 1 option. These could be Joe Flacco stats, and the usage will swing back toward Pittman with Anthony Richardson back in command. But what if they're Shane Steichen stats? Pittman posted a hefty 31.4% 1st-read target rate from Weeks 1-2. Since Downs came back, he's led the team with a massive 34% 1st-read target rate. He actually ranks 12th in the league in the metric. Pittman is down at a 21.6% 1st-read target rate from Week 3-6. Flacco and Richardson have targeted their 1st read at nearly identical rates (71.3% vs. 70.1%). The preferred look is going to get fed in this offense, and it appears to be Downs instead of Pittman.

Everywhere I look, I see someone on Hill...rightfully so, but I think there's some really nice value here on Waddle. He's covered this line in every game this season, which means he has in 2/2 w/ Huntley but what really stands out is over the L2 weeks, his TRG share has risen (more than Hill's). Weeks 1-3: 14.43% Target Share Weeks 4-5: 26.92% Target Share The really nice thing here is his TRG share has jumped 12% with Huntley but his low ADOT of ~8-8.5 yards has stayed the same. Huntley's pass attempts line is 26.5 with juice. Assuming he throws 26 passes, Waddle should see 7 TRG in this one (L2 w/ Huntley he's seen 6 and 8 TRG). When Waddle has seen 6+ TRG in a game, he's covered this line in 19/21 games since Hill has joined MIA (90.5%). IND plays zone at the highest rate in the league - last season Waddle was T10 in RECV grade and YPRR vs. zone. That hasn't translated over to this season (yet) but understandably so with all the QB issues. Waddle's ADOT drops to 6.9 (nice) vs. zone coverage, making it easier to haul in catches. L2 weeks w/ Huntley when MIA has faced zone, Waddle leads the team with 11 targets (Hill 9 targets) - accounting for a 30.6% TRG share against zone coverages. It also helps that MIA is coming off a bye week where Huntley had more time to get familiar with the complex MIA offense.

+ev and projections leans to the under giving us value at this number

Caesars