49ers vs. Giants Odds & Betting Predictions - November 2, 2025

3.22% ev play to -127

Christian McCaffrey Longest Rush over 15.5 yards (-115 at DK/ESPN, over 14.5 -145 at 365 is fine but that yard isn't worth the 30 cents) It's tough betting over 15.5 on a player that hasn't recorded a run longer than 15 yards this year, but if there's ever a spot its against this awful Giants run D CMC has faced a brutal run schedule, with four of his eight opponents ranking top eight in defensive DVOA to the run and all but two ranking top half Faces a NYG team that ranks dead last vs the run NYG has allowed 16 of 161 (9.9%) non-QB scramble runs against them from at least 16 yards away from the end zone to clear 15.5 yards CMC's rushing attempt line is 18.5, with around 85%+ of those runs likely to come from at least 16 yards away from the end zone Using worst case estimates between best fit distributions and raw rates of clearing 15.5 for both CMC and NYG D, I'm getting that CMC is favored to clear this as long as he has at least 10 carries from 16+ yards away from the end zone. At an 18.5 carry line, then 85% of those coming from far enough out means he's 5-6 carries clear of this 10 carry threshold. I'm making this a rare 1.5u bet

Projecting Carter closer to +620 to have 2+ sacks

It's a sad state of affairs for San Francisco — my first Super Bowl bet of the season — that I just don't see much reason to believe these teams are that far apart from each other at this point. Neither is particularly great at much. Three of the four units rank in the bottom 10 by DVOA. Only the 49ers offense doesn't. That's mostly been the passing game, and that's better under the still-missing Brock Purdy with Mac Jones set to make yet another start. The Giants rank dead last in run defense DVOA, and most years that would be enough reason to trust the 49ers. However, San Francisco hasn't run the ball very well this season, and this is not a great stylistic matchup. Kyle Shanahan's scheme is mostly zone-based, and the Giants are decent in that spot at 4.3 YPC allowed and 46% Success Rate, a far cry from the disastrous 7.1 and 59% allowed to man and gap-based schemes. New York is also better defending runs up the middle, right where Christian McCaffrey has run best at 4.9 YPC versus 3.0 to the outside, where the Giants are weaker. This total is rising with both defenses on the fritz, and if we get a surprising shootout, are you sure you prefer Mac Jones to Jaxson Dart? I'd probably favor the 49ers ever so slightly, but still make this close to a coin flip in New York. The 49ers defense is absolutely cooked. Nick Bosa and Fred Warner were the only two stars, and they're now out for the season, but the replacements are also getting hurt. This exhausted unit was on the field for 75 plays against Houston last week, including about 80% of the first half. There's some obvious selection bias for bad teams here, but per Evan Abrams, teams with at least 75 plays in defense are an ugly 13-23 SU (36%) the following game over the last two seasons. Besides — are we sure the 49ers aren't just bad now? I can't help but feel like we left some meat on the bone last week in the 49ers' loss to the Texans. Houston won big and hit one of our alternate spreads, but it felt like the Texans should've won by even more. I'm going back to the well. Many bettors make the mistake of seeing a close spread and interpreting it as a close game, but that's not always the case. Over the last decade, 127 home underdogs of under three points won the game outright; 77 of those teams won by at least seven points (61%). I'm not interested in Giants +2.5 or a moneyline here. I don't need the coin flip. If the 49ers truly haven't hit rock bottom yet, maybe a blowout loss in New York would do the trick. Six of the last 10 Giants wins have come by 7+ points, half of the 10 by double digits. The 49ers have 11 losses in the last calendar year, and seven of them (64%) have come by double digits, with an average margin of defeat of 12.7 PPG. Let's keep riding the 49ers down to the bottom. Play Giants -4.5 at +230 — it's about the same price as -5.5 or -6.5, so we may as well skip those semi-key numbers — and let's go for the kill at -9.5 and +450 odds (both at FanDuel).

2.06% ev play to +101

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3.8% ev play to +129