The NFL season rolls into Week 9, with the Ravens taking on the Dolphins on Thursday Night Football.
That's where I begin my NFL Week 9 predictions, followed by bets, leans and passes for the rest of the weekend slate, including Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football.
Every week, I break down my thoughts on every NFL game from a betting perspective. NFL odds move throughout the week, and getting action in at key numbers can be the difference between a good and great betting season.
NFL Week 9 Picks & Predictions
| Table of Contents |
|---|
| Thursday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 9 Picks |
| Sunday Night Football |
| Monday Night Football |
Thursday Night Football
Ravens vs Dolphins
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 51 -110o / -110u | -450 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 51 -110o / -110u | +325 |
Well, it appears Lamar Jackson is ready to return from injury — and it couldn't come at a better time for the 2-5 Ravens. They managed to survive the Browns last week in his absence, putting up 30 points, but it hasn't been the offense that's held this team back.
Baltimore's defense had been abysmal prior to the last two weeks, where it's allowed just 16 and 17 points against the Rams and Bears, respectively, and now it ranks 23rd in DVOA after sitting in the bottom three for several weeks.
I gave Miami's offense plenty of time to settle in, and we still aren't seeing anything very convincing. It's passed a ton, and even with a high 68.9% completion percentage, has managed just 6.5 yards per attempt to rank 23rd and Tua Tagovailoa has compounded that with plenty of interceptions.
The Dolphins' defense has been equally bad, giving up the highest completion percentage in the league on the fifth-highest pass-play rate, and with the way Jackson was throwing the ball prior to his absence, you'd have to think that's music to the Ravens' ears. They're better off relying on an aerial attack as presently constructed, and they probably don't have to worry much about Miami's offense.
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Passes
Panthers vs Packers
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +575 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -850 |
I don't really even want to write much on this topic. I haven't really been a big fan of either team all season and now we're being asked to either lay almost two touchdowns with a Green Bay team that has covered just once in its last five games or take the points with Bryce Young behind an offensive line that could be down three starters after already losing two solid guards to injured reserve.
I really don't think the Packers can cover this number with some pretty uninspiring play against weak competition in recent weeks, but do we really trust Carolina? I mean, the Packers have been solid against the run and if the Panthers can't get the ground game going, what's their plan? Maybe you're braver than I.
Vikings vs Lions
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | +375 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | -500 |
The Vikings will turn back to a freshly healed JJ McCarthy under center, and while that's very exciting for a team at a pivotal point in its season, it's unlikely to make an impact here against a sound Detroit defense.
The Lions have given up just 25% passing on deep balls (classified as 20 or more yards downfield), which will take away the bread-and-butter of Kevin O'Connell's offense. Detroit's also owned the best defense in the league by DVOA and has stopped opposing backfields week after week — making the task at hand for McCarthy even tougher.
I don't believe in McCarthy against this defense, and we haven't seen enough of him to really have a good idea of whether or not to believe in him at all. The matchup here looks damning, but Minnesota's defense has done a decent job against the run and could have a bit more success with Taylor Decker questionable for this game on Detroit's line.
On defense, too, Detroit could be without Avonte Maddox and Al-Quadin Muhammad after losing DJ Reed a couple of weeks ago — so this may actually turn out to be too many points to spot Minnesota. I'll pass on this one.
Verdict: Pass
Saints vs Rams
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -115 | 44 -110o / -110u | +700 |
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -105 | 44 -110o / -110u | -1100 |
I mean, he did throw for just 136 yards against the Buccaneers last week, and he did turn the ball over three times against Chicago the week prior, but on the whole I still think Spencer Rattler was improving. His completion percentage has been steady and other than that loss to the Bears he's taken care of the football.
I just wanted to get that out of the way because Tyler Shough is the new man under center for New Orleans and, oh boy, this matchup is going to be even tougher than Tampa Bay last week. L.A. has continued to shut down the passing game and ranks eighth in DVOA against the run, amounting to the third-best scoring defense in the league.
This isn't the time for a rookie quarterback to break out, surely, but stranger things have happened this season when an upper-echelon team has faced a basement-dweller like this. I didn't think Shough played as well as Rattler last week, so I'm completely in the dark here. We'll pass and let the kid show us what he's made of.
Verdict: Pass
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Leans
Chargers vs Titans
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +375 |
This Chargers defense just ain't got it. You know what I mean? They were 27th in DVOA prior to picking on poor Carson Wentz last week, and while they did just have to play the Colts two weeks ago their schedule has been incredibly easy since Week 1. Not one of their opponents — the Raiders, Giants, Broncos, Commanders, Dolphins or Vikings — has had anything close to a successful season on offense, and not one currently sits above 15th by DVOA.
So, why isn't this defense better? It's just 22nd in takeaway rate, and it's given up 4.9 yards per rush to rank 27th of 32 teams. Well, teams have thrown on L.A. more than they've run — due in part to the game script calling for throws — and while they've failed to do much it's not like any pf the offenses above have an excellent passer. Jayden Daniels is pretty good — and he did torment the Chargers in a win just a few weeks ago.
I just wanted to document some distrust in the Chargers. It's not like the Titans are very good, though it should be said that Cam Ward has looked like a much better quarterback in the last three weeks and certainly has an abundance of time to maximize his talent. The run game also picked up a bit last week with Tyjae Spears breaking off a big gainer and Tony Pollard bouncing back after a couple of tough showings.
There's just something here telling me Ward and the Titans are ready to hang some points on the Chargers' defense.
Verdict: Lean Titans +8.5
Colts vs Steelers
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
The Colts have provided Daniel Jones with some of the best pass blocking in the league this season, and now this line will once again find itself under the spotlight against a stellar Steelers pass rush.
Jones has offered the same type of production under pressure, so it may not even matter how well they protect him, and while the Steelers have taken away the deep ball this season they've allowed the eighth-highest success rate per dropback. Indy's offense is well-balanced, and doesn't rely much on deep passing — in fact it's actually ranked just 22nd in pass-play rate.
It would seem that the Colts should have a fair shot at moving the ball through the air given their tendency to get the ball out quick and protect Jones, so my biggest concern is Indy's defense. It's been excellent against the run, but Pittsburgh has been known to pass more — and it's not as if the Colts have limited the damage all that much in the secondary. Not only have they been passed on the second-most in football, but they've allowed a poor 6.9 yards per attempt and a pedestrian 65.18% completion percentage.
Given the Steelers have been potent in the red zone, and Indy's struggled to defend in close, I'd reckon both offenses get going.
Verdict: Lean Over 50.5
Chiefs vs Bills
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
Aside from the storied rivalry between these two teams, this one will be an interesting matchup given it'll be a true litmus test for both offensive lines. Buffalo has delivered Josh Allen the sixth-most clean pockets this season, and Kansas City ranks 10th. On defense, the Bills have allowed the fewest clean pockets, and the Chiefs are just six spots behind.
That should make this one a challenge for Patrick Mahomes, who has ranked sixth in deep passing attempts and has completed a poor 11 of these 34 throws. Not only may he be rushed here by Buffalo's line, but the Bills have also been the second-stingiest in the league against the deep ball.
Now, the Bills do rank second-worst in yards per carry on defense and haven't really been able to stop the run for years. Kansas City's run game has made some great strides this season with the continued integration of Kareem Hunt, but is that really enough to make an impact here? It's also worth noting that Isaiah Pacheco may not suit up, either.
Buffalo's rarely been run on this season due to the lopsided nature of some of its games, but Kansas City's defense has been solid in its own right — especially against the run where the Bills have gone more than any team in football.
Unfortunately, I don't know if this is going to be the shootout we're hoping for.
Verdict: Lean Under 52.5
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NFL Week 9 Picks
Bears vs Bengals
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 51 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 51 -110o / -110u | +130 |
The Bears' offense continues to look unappealing after a 16-point showing against a struggling Ravens defense, and now the question becomes whether or not its defense can alleviate some of the pressure and open up the run game further for Chicago.
We know this team likes to run the ball, and while it did so somewhat well against Baltimore, it was Caleb Williams who shone — going 25-of-38 for 285 yards with just one interception and one sack.
The team was ultimately held back by a ton of penalties and a poor red zone conversion rate — something that's been a problem all season long. The good news is that Cincinnati has given up touchdowns in the red zone at the third-highest clip in the league while its defense has been the worst overall — and equally inept against the run and the pass.
Without even bothering to worry about this Cincinnati offense — which may not even have Joe Flacco due to injury — I think we've got a Bears team that played well last week and should see the fruits of their labor here, given the numbers we've laid out.
Verdict: Bet Bears -3
Falcons vs Patriots
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +210 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -260 |
The Patriots have now covered in five straight games, and in the last two weeks they did so as 6.5 and seven-point favorites. Unfortunately if you haven't hopped aboard the Drake Maye train by now, there may not be much time remaining; New England is once again favored by nearly a touchdown.
The run may still have some life in it yet, as Atlanta's offense has come up with a putrid 10 points in back-to-back weeks against the Dolphins and 49ers. Gross. New England has been one of the best teams in football against the run, and the Falcons are relying heavily upon their backfield with the 11th-most rushing yards per game coming into this one.
I expect New England to slow Bijan Robinson just as it's done to just about every back this season, and while it's had issues in the secondary the Falcons rank just 26th in success rate when throwing the ball.
The Patriots rank first in that category, and by most metrics their passing offense has been one of the best in the game. This is a big-time prove-it spot, however, given the Falcons have allowed the fewest passing yards per game and rank fifth-best in EPA per dropback. That means we should probably be shorting this number — which looks way too high.
Verdict: Bet Under 45
49ers vs Giants
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
The Giants have now lost two of their best players at the skill positions in Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo, and now it seems they've got nowhere to go offensively. This is a team which has run the ball 29 times per game — ranked fourth in the league — and has really only ever scored on the ground.
New York's offense was already a tough one to bet on given it's scored on just 48.2% of red zone tripe — good for 25th in the NFL — and ranks just 24th in yards per play. I'm not really a big believer in this San Francisco defense at all — or the team at large — but this is yet another example of the 49ers' good fortune which seems never-ending this season. It's not like the Giants have shown any promise on defense, with their ranks in the above categories sitting even lower on that end, so this is the way to go.
Verdict: Bet 49ers -2.5
Broncos vs Texans
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 40 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 40 -110o / -110u | -130 |
Congratulations to the Broncos, who have now scored 77 points in their last two games. It sure was difficult to get through the Giants and Cowboys, who rank 26th and 31st in scoring defense.
If you can't tell by my tone, I'm simply not buying this offense yet. It's had a very easy schedule to this point and has only managed to rank 13th in points per play and 10th in overall scoring offense. The run game has certainly been there for the Broncos, but Bo Nix has failed them with this team ranking seventh-worst in yards per attempt and 24th in completion percentage.
Enter the Houston Texans, which has ranked second in DVOA against the pass, second in completion percentage allowed and third in yards per attempt. The metrics are less favorable to this defense up front, yet it's still ranked fifth in rushing yards allowed per game.
This is a menacing defense which started slow and has put together a few great performances in recent weeks. The offense is a work in progress, sure, but things are improving slowly but surely with C.J. Stroud coming off his best game of the year. I think we have to fade Denver here.
Verdict: Bet Texans ML (-120)
Jaguars vs Raiders
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 +100 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -120 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
The Raiders' biggest issue has been protecting Geno Smith, who has made some questionable decisions under pressure. I mean, there are a ton of issues; the team can't run the ball to save its life and the defense has disappeared all too often.
By the metrics, however, Las Vegas has ranked a respectable 13th in Defensive DVOA and has stood up the run decently well in allowing just four yards per tote. We know Smith is capable of big things when given time, posting a 97.5 passer rating under a clean pocket, and the Jaguars have given up the ninth-highest clean-pocket rate in the league as their pass rush continues to look uninspiring.
With Devin Lloyd wearing a questionable tag entering this one for the Jaguars and several other starters like Dennis Gardeck, Eric Murray and Jourdan Lewis in danger of missing the game, this could wind up being a solid matchup for Vegas. If you can slow Jacksonville on the ground and get the ball moving vertically through the air, you can win.
Verdict: Bet Raiders +3
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Sunday Night Football
Seahawks vs Commanders
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 48 -110o / -110u | -160 |
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 48 -110o / -110u | +135 |
The Seahawks are still a bit banged up defensively with two starters in safety Julian Love and Jarran Reed looking uncertain for this one, and edge rusher Derick Hall joining them on the injury report. It wasn't the biggest deal in the last two weeks against the Jaguars and Texans, and it's not a given Washington will be able to give this unit any more of a fight.
Terry McLaurin is out for this one, and tackle Laremy Tunsil is questionable as well. That's all with the added context that this team put up just seven points against Kansas City last week, all while Patrick Mahomes' 299 yards and three touchdowns helped the Chiefs hang 28 points on this defense.
Washington's secondary is bad, its pass rush grades out 15th according to Pro Football Focus, and Sam Darnold is arguably the best quarterback in football right now. I just don't see how the Commanders keep up with the way the Seahawks have shut down the run in recent weeks.
Verdict: Bet Seahawks -3
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Monday Night Football
Cardinals vs Cowboys
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 53 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 53 -110o / -110u | -150 |
Now, the Cardinals have not won a game since Week 2, but let's try to say some nice things here. Their secondary has been pretty solid, ranking seventh in yards per attempt and 10th in completion percentage. That's a surprising development for a defense which was written off prior to the season, as is the fact that it's ranked 12th against the run.
An injury to safety Kitan Crawford would be a massive blow, but it's too early to know whether or not it's bad enough to hold him out here. Still, I think there's a lot to like — particularly with Dallas leaning entirely on its offense and the passing game in particular.
The Cowboys' defense has been abysmal, as we know, and it's given up 8.2 yards per attempt to rank second-worst in the league. Assuming Kyler Murray is healthy enough to start, I think we have to fire him up here. Dallas ranks bottom 10 in sacks, alleviating some of the burden Murray's offensive line has caused him, and the fact that it's been so inept in defending the pass means Arizona shouldn't have to run the ball. We know the Cardinals can't do that, but they should be able to win the battle in just about every other aspect.
Verdict: Bet Cardinals +2.5
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