S. Florida vs. North Texas Odds & Betting Predictions - October 10, 2025

POTD: While South Florida checks in at #24 in the AP Poll, our numbers rank them as just the 48th best team in the country. Their inflated perception largely stems from early season wins over Boise State and Florida. Meanwhile, North Texas hasn’t had the same scheduling advantages and is still flying under the radar. That changes tonight. The Mean Green offense is electric, ranking top 25 overall and top 20 in passing efficiency. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker has been nothing short of elite, tossing 11 touchdowns without a single interception. He owns the fourth highest passing grade in the country with 10 big time throws and just one turnover worthy play. This offensive system has been proven over the years, just look at Virginia’s resurgence under QB Chandler Morris, who happened to be the North Texas quarterback last season. This offense can score on anyone, and they should find plenty of success again tonight. The biggest difference for North Texas, though, is on the defensive side of the ball. What was a liability last season has turned into a legitimate strength. New defensive coordinator Skyler Cassidy has rebuilt this unit, bringing over several key pieces from Sam Houston State. Sam Houston has plummeted from 10 wins last year to an 0-6 record this season without Cassidy and these defensive pieces. North Texas ranks 19th in defensive grade and first nationally in tackling. They’re also top 30 in success rate allowed, a complete turnaround from a year ago. The secondary has been excellent, which will be crucial against a South Florida offense that thrives on explosive plays. While explosive, South Florida’s offense ranks just 92nd in quality drive rate and 98th in success rate. Everything runs through quarterback Byrum Brown. The Bulls offensive line has struggled badly, especially in the run game. Outside of Brown’s scrambles, their ground attack has been nearly nonexistent. When it comes down to it, North Texas simply has the more consistent offense and is more complete in the trenches. If their defense continues to perform, there’s no reason they can’t stay undefeated. South Florida also ranks 6th in our luck ratings, suggesting their record has come with plenty of good fortune. Our model projects North Texas to win 34.79-26.96, implying a fair spread of -7.84. The data loves North Texas in this spot and so do I. I’ll take North Texas to win a massive game at home.

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Massive massive game. Huge AAC conference games Sou Florida hitting the road on a Friday night, think UNT has the goods here defensively. Love what we’ve seen with mestemaker. Fun game

I like Alex Golesh, I think he’s pumped energy into this program, his system when it’s all clicking is elite by G5 standards. But I have my concerns about Byrum Brown. The kid is high variance when he plays on the road. He was steady at Florida, and avoided a mistake that would cost them the game. But Miami totally neutralized him. I’ll place those aside, because of P4 talent involved. Last year, against G5 opponents on the road, he took way too many sacks (4 per game). And in 2023, he had four multiple turnover road performances. I bring this up because Skylar Cassity’s defense has succeeded in creating turnaround…a lot of them. No team in America creates more takeaways per game than UNT. No team has a better PFF tackling grade, and they’re eighth in coverage as well. A little bit of this was their offseason upgrades, like middle linebacker Trey Fields and corner David Fisher who followed Cassity from Sam Houston to Denton. But I attribute a big part of their success to situational playcalling and his overall aggressiveness. His 4-2-5 alignment brings pressure and simulated pressure from all over and QBs are clearly confused and panicking with the football. And he can be sophisticated because he brought so many players and coaches from Sam Houston, so the contuinity is clearly a part of this success. I trust Mestemaker to continue to protect the football and Morris to throw a perfectly balanced attack at the Bulls. It’s a Black Out, Sell Out, national TV game, the juice will be there. Gimme the home team to win the turnover battle and the game.