S. Florida vs. North Texas Odds & Betting Predictions - October 10, 2025

S. Florida at North Texas

11:30 pm • ESPN2
63 - 36

S. Florida at North Texas Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
S. Florida
6-2
+2.5
+2.5-108
o68.5-110
+114
North Texas
7-1
u62.5
-2.5-112
u68.5-110
-135
location pinFriday 11:30 p.m.
October 10, 2025
DATCU StadiumDenton
S. Florida vs. North Texas Expert Picks
💰🦡 Jake
💰🦡 Jake
Last 30d: 104-120-8 (+0.2u)
Under 90.5 (Live)-110
1.1u
Collin Wilson
Collin Wilson
Last 30d: 84-65-1 (+15.9u)
UNT +3.5 (Live)-115
1.15u
USF +4 (Live)-110
1u
South Florida Middle 8, will look UNT 3+
Boomer Betz
Boomer Betz
Last 30d: 170-173-2 (+4.6u)
USF +2.5+105
1.05u
The Degenerates
The Degenerates
Last 30d: 54-56-0 (-6.3u)
Over 66.5-110
1u
YBK Picks.com
Last 30d: 64-38-3 (+47.2u)
UNT -2.5-105
2u
Allan Lem
Allan Lem
Last 30d: 139-106-3 (+7.8u)
UNT -2.5-105
0.53u
Scott Rickenbach
Scott Rickenbach
Last 30d: 105-110-1 (-16.9u)
USF +2.5-110
0.91u
Capper Central
Capper Central
Last 30d: 78-70-0 (-6.1u)
UNT -124
1.24u
Wags Wins
Wags Wins
Last 30d: 214-212-1 (-11.1u)
UNT -120
1.5u
Bet Labs
Bet Labs
Last 30d: 20-19-0 (+2.4u)
UNT -120
1.2u
The Pick Don
The Pick Don
Last 30d: 18-9-0 (+10.6u)
UNT -120
1.8u
POTD: While South Florida checks in at #24 in the AP Poll, our numbers rank them as just the 48th best team in the country. Their inflated perception largely stems from early season wins over Boise State and Florida. Meanwhile, North Texas hasn’t had the same scheduling advantages and is still flying under the radar. That changes tonight. The Mean Green offense is electric, ranking top 25 overall and top 20 in passing efficiency. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker has been nothing short of elite, tossing 11 touchdowns without a single interception. He owns the fourth highest passing grade in the country with 10 big time throws and just one turnover worthy play. This offensive system has been proven over the years, just look at Virginia’s resurgence under QB Chandler Morris, who happened to be the North Texas quarterback last season. This offense can score on anyone, and they should find plenty of success again tonight. The biggest difference for North Texas, though, is on the defensive side of the ball. What was a liability last season has turned into a legitimate strength. New defensive coordinator Skyler Cassidy has rebuilt this unit, bringing over several key pieces from Sam Houston State. Sam Houston has plummeted from 10 wins last year to an 0-6 record this season without Cassidy and these defensive pieces. North Texas ranks 19th in defensive grade and first nationally in tackling. They’re also top 30 in success rate allowed, a complete turnaround from a year ago. The secondary has been excellent, which will be crucial against a South Florida offense that thrives on explosive plays. While explosive, South Florida’s offense ranks just 92nd in quality drive rate and 98th in success rate. Everything runs through quarterback Byrum Brown. The Bulls offensive line has struggled badly, especially in the run game. Outside of Brown’s scrambles, their ground attack has been nearly nonexistent. When it comes down to it, North Texas simply has the more consistent offense and is more complete in the trenches. If their defense continues to perform, there’s no reason they can’t stay undefeated. South Florida also ranks 6th in our luck ratings, suggesting their record has come with plenty of good fortune. Our model projects North Texas to win 34.79-26.96, implying a fair spread of -7.84. The data loves North Texas in this spot and so do I. I’ll take North Texas to win a massive game at home.
Ryan Sura
Ryan Sura
Last 30d: 89-101-1 (-8.7u)
W.Young o23.5 Rec Yds-115
1u
Lines at Lunch
Lines at Lunch
Last 30d: 90-108-2 (-25.9u)
UNT -110
1.1u
Sandy Plashkes
Sandy Plashkes
Last 30d: 96-99-1 (+0.6u)
UNT -110
1.1u
Brian Bitler
Brian Bitler
Last 30d: 70-76-2 (-27.4u)
Under 66.5-105
3u
💰🦡 Jake
💰🦡 Jake
Last 30d: 104-120-8 (+0.2u)
USF u33.5-110
1.1u
Under 33.5 (1H)-108
1.08u
Austin Pendergrass
Austin Pendergrass
Last 30d: 49-44-1 (+2.7u)
UNT +119
1u
Profit boost play
Top Shelf Action 🥃
Top Shelf Action 🥃
Last 30d: 194-187-1 (-14.8u)
UNT +1-115
1u
Duck
Duck
Last 30d: 61-64-4 (-6.4u)
UNT +100
1u
Massive massive game. Huge AAC conference games Sou Florida hitting the road on a Friday night, think UNT has the goods here defensively. Love what we’ve seen with mestemaker. Fun game
Mike Calabrese
Mike Calabrese
Last 30d: 30-35-0 (-3.4u)
UNT +100
1u
I like Alex Golesh, I think he’s pumped energy into this program, his system when it’s all clicking is elite by G5 standards. But I have my concerns about Byrum Brown. The kid is high variance when he plays on the road. He was steady at Florida, and avoided a mistake that would cost them the game. But Miami totally neutralized him. I’ll place those aside, because of P4 talent involved. Last year, against G5 opponents on the road, he took way too many sacks (4 per game). And in 2023, he had four multiple turnover road performances. I bring this up because Skylar Cassity’s defense has succeeded in creating turnaround…a lot of them. No team in America creates more takeaways per game than UNT. No team has a better PFF tackling grade, and they’re eighth in coverage as well. A little bit of this was their offseason upgrades, like middle linebacker Trey Fields and corner David Fisher who followed Cassity from Sam Houston to Denton. But I attribute a big part of their success to situational playcalling and his overall aggressiveness. His 4-2-5 alignment brings pressure and simulated pressure from all over and QBs are clearly confused and panicking with the football. And he can be sophisticated because he brought so many players and coaches from Sam Houston, so the contuinity is clearly a part of this success. I trust Mestemaker to continue to protect the football and Morris to throw a perfectly balanced attack at the Bulls. It’s a Black Out, Sell Out, national TV game, the juice will be there. Gimme the home team to win the turnover battle and the game.
Babs .
Babs .
Last 30d: 94-110-3 (-11.7u)
USF -108
0.93u
Top Shelf Action 🥃
Top Shelf Action 🥃
Last 30d: 194-187-1 (-14.8u)
Over 62.5-110
0.91u

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Prop Odds Comparison

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S. Florida vs. North Texas Public Betting Percentages

Away Logo

S. Florida

Public

43%

Bets%

57%

Money%

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
North Texas
6-24-12-16-2N/A
S. Florida
6-24-02-23-13-1

Over/Under History

overallhome o/uaway o/ufavorite o/uunderdog o/u
North Texas
6-23-23-06-2N/A
S. Florida
5-32-23-13-12-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
North Texas
7-1N/AN/A7-1N/A
S. Florida
6-2N/AN/A3-13-1

Last 5 Matchups

dateopponentscorespreadover/undermoneyline
Sep 27thUSAW 36-22-13 WU 63.5UNT -485
Sep 20th@ARMYW 45-38-2.5 WO 50.5UNT -142
Sep 13thWSUW 59-10-6.5 WO 57.5UNT -270
Sep 6th@WMUW 33-30-11.5 LO 56.5UNT -444
Aug 31stLAMW 51-0-27.5 WU 63UNT -5553
Team Stats
580
Total Yards
423
86
Total Plays
78
6.744186046511628
Yards Per Play
5.423076923076923
274
YDS
326
23/29
Comps/Atts
30/49
9.448275862068966
YPA
6.653061224489796
4/1
TDs/INTs
2/3
3/23
Sacks/Yards
2/10
306
Rush Yards
97
57
Attempts
29
5.368421052631579
YPC
3.3448275862068964
4
TDs
3
2
Fumbles Lost
2
1
Interceptions
3
6/7 85.71%
Redzone
3/4 75%
7/11 0%
3rd Down
9/18 0%
1/1 0%
4th Down
2/4 0%
32
Total
26
13
Pass
19
17
Rush
4
2
Penalty
3
6/67
Penalties/Yards
5/35

S. Florida vs. North Texas Odds Comparison

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S. Florida at North Texas Team Totals

MatchupOverUnder
S. Florida
6-2
o33.5-117
u33.5-112
North Texas
7-1
o35-113
u35-117