Hawaii vs. UNLV Odds & Betting Predictions - November 22, 2025

Will look at UNLV after Hawaii Middle 8

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I will admit, the model does not like this play. The model has been high on UNLV all season and it’s been right, considering they are 8-2. However, this is a spot where I want to fade them. Our ratings have these teams just 1.4 points apart, and I’m not sure I’ve seen a worse defense than UNLV’s. Hawaii leaving the island has always been a red flag. They’ve never seemed able to perform in years prior, but this season they’ve figured it out. Hawaii is 2-1 in conference play away from the island, with their one loss coming by one score. Hawaii will come into this game off a long bye week, giving them ample time to prepare for UNLV’s explosive offense. Meanwhile, UNLV played just 6 days ago and will be at a huge rest disadvantage. UNLV has also been hilariously lucky this season. Last week they beat Utah State in a game where the Utah State kicker missed three field goals and an extra point. He missed the game winning field goal in regulation and the game winning kick in overtime. UNLV had zero business winning that game. The Rebels have been a luck box all season. They’re currently 10th in our college football luck rankings all while playing just the 90th toughest strength of schedule. This team is incredibly mediocre and is very lucky to be sitting at 8-2. Meanwhile, Hawaii is sneakily having a great season. They’ve already made a bowl game and have a chance to win 10 games if they win out. We bet on the Rainbow Warriors in Week 0, and we haven’t forgotten about them. They’ve impressed me immensely, especially QB Micah Alejado and WR Jackson Harris. A lot of this offense is going to be poached to a P4 school next year. Hawaii is the much more balanced and all-around team in this matchup. Their passing offense owns the 57th best grade in the country and has created a bunch of explosive plays through the air. This is a disaster situation for a UNLV defense that’s almost dead last in the country in giving up explosive plays (133rd). The Rebels defense is outside the top 100 in every statistical category. This unit is truly horrific. The Hawaii offense should get whatever it wants through the air. UNLV does have an elite offense, but they’re dealing with some injuries right now. Their starting tight end is out and their very solid starting running back is questionable. Jai’Den Thomas being ruled out would completely change this offense’s dynamic. Their weak point is already running the ball. If Thomas is out, that weak point becomes even bigger. This would put UNLV in obvious passing situations. Hawaii’s defense isn’t great, but they actually rank top 40 in coverage grade. UNLV loves to take downfield shots, so strong downfield coverage is key. QB Anthony Colandrea can be electric, but he can also be very turnover prone. The UNLV offensive line also leaves a lot to be desired. They rank just 114th overall and have really struggled in run blocking. This game will be a shootout, but I trust a Hawaii team with extra preparation. UNLV also currently has four defensive starters listed as questionable. I don’t think it’s possible for that defense to get much worse, but it’s possible if some of these guys are ruled out. We could be getting the B-version UNLV team tonight. In that case, Hawaii should take care of business. UNLV escaped last weekend’s game due to miserable special teams play by Utah State. That won’t happen against Hawaii, as they have one of the best, if not the best special teams groups in the country. Their field goal kicker and punter are elite. This is an underrated aspect of this matchup. I’ll take the Rainbow Warriors to cover as a short road dog.

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UNLV’s defense is dog water. One of the leakiest teams in America when it comes to letting up big plays. The good offenses in this league have had their way with the Rebs defense. And we get Ali-ha-dough, hot as a pistol, three passing TDs in five straight games. They just put up 38 on San Diego State, the best defense in this conference by a country mile. They’re healthy than they’ve been earlier in the season, particularly at WR, and that bye week was perfectly timed because now they can prepare further for the logistics and game prep. It’s a simplier road trip in that it’s less than 6 hours air time, and no long bus ride. And Timmy has figured out the Main Land this year with two outright wins already. The key in this game, in my opinion is containing Colandrea. He’s capable of 100 on the ground and a TD or two, but he’s also a stick of dynamite outside the pocket, uncorking deep passes. Hawaii has a comp for Colandrea and that was Bryson Barnes. They held to him to a QBR of 27.7 and 64 yards on the ground. It’s going to require a few upsets for them to get into the MWC title game, but the fact that they’re alive is giving this team juice, when a lot of teams around the country have nothing to play for. A win here and the program’s first 10 win season in six years is on the table.