Furman vs. Virginia Odds & Betting Predictions - March 16, 2023

Projection - 1.7. For more, check out BettingPros.

#mattcox @threemanweave

FD: Slightly bigger edge taking under 11.5 (-104) at FD than under 12.5 (-155) at DK although DK is the safer option as you get an extra full point. Pegues averages 12 ppg this year while playing in 78.2% of possible minutes on the court. But that was also with Furman averaging 82.1 points per game. Their team total is now just 63 against UVA. So while we're allowing him a higher minutes projection (82.5% of minutes) that still doesn't make up for the significantly lower team total, by nearly 20 points! That, plus a few matchup factors, makes us project Pegues at 9.9 points.

To start with the obvious: pace. Furman averaged 82 ppg this season, but are only implied at 63 against UVA. So even though Slawson averaged 26 PRA, I’m on the under here. UVA’s pack line defense shuts off the paint and makes you shoot over the top. Furman as a team is capable of this, and Slawson is a good shooter himself, but he’s 4th in 3PM (1.1 per game) and 3PA (2.9). With possessions at a premium, I don’t see Slawson garnering the volume he’d need. 189 of his 300 FGA were in the paint, with 68% of his points coming either in the paint or at the FT line (UVA is also 30th in the nation in opp FTA per offensive play). I’m tacking on R+A as well, because possessions will be at a premium. Would play this at u20.5 PRA as well (half unit at u12.5 points).

Tony Bennett 7-13 ATS in tourney since 09, ranks 275th of 277. 3 of last 4 UVa losses to 9+ seeds and they're so slow the games are always close. Furman first tourney since 1980, elite offense and UVa D not great this year. Could we get our first upset?? https://medium.com/sportsraid/march-madness-2023-perfect-bracket-ncaa-history-purdue-kansas-alabama-houston-duke-ucla-texas-uconn-9cd5ddfea2e

Just watched the preview show and this one came up a few times https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.369372291&selectionId[0]=718730&shareBetId=10023_-443033149