Pacers vs. Celtics Odds & Betting Predictions - May 24, 2024

Riding with the squad

Collab with @PropBomb @SBK5065

Collab w/ @SBK5065 @JoeDellera F/C Xavier Tillman is AVAILABLE to play after missing Game 1 and if there’s anybody who’s in jeopardy of losing minutes in the Celtics rotation, it’s Luke Kornet… simply because this is not his type of series. In Game 1, he had 4 rebounds on 8 chances in 13 minutes, but played an extra 2:14 in Q2 with Horford waiting by the scorers table, waiting for a pause in game (extra rebound during this time). But we are looking more at his defense, especially when it comes to grabbing rebounds. Throughout most the game, he either was targeted heavily in action via Haliburton PnRs, picked on when in zone, and chasing Myles Turner at the 3-point line in spot-up. He’s turned into a liability, and is not suited to keep up with the pace if Indiana isn’t running out Isaiah Jackson that much with Obi Toppin playing the backup 5. Tonight, we could see Mazzulla quickly turn to Tillman if court time continue to go sour, so realistically we should expect 7-12 minutes on the floor. In games without Porzingis + w/ the starters where this happens, he averages 2.0 REB, going U3.5 REB in six of the seven instances. #PlayerProps

Obi with 15 points in 22 mins (all regulation) in game 1. Now over in 9/L12, 10/L12 with just 17+ mins, and 5/5 vs Boston this season. Should continue to pick up a few extra mins with the Pacers really not needing to go to Jackson in this series.

#Tailing @JoeDellera

Under 3.5 in 9-of-11 postseason games. Despite 5 AST in G1, still averaging 1.8 APG in 35.0 MPG vs IND reg+post. The 3.5 line is a G1 overreaction after it closed at 2.5 in each of Brown's first 10 playoff games.

Via Brian Matthews

The trifecta dip

Pacers due for a major stinker

🎙️ Discussed on Cash That Podcast One Pacer that I expect to show up in Game 2 is Pascal Siakam. Siakam was excellent down the stretch of Game 1 even though the Pacers lost because of the way he continued to attack the rim. Siakam was continually attacking the interior, specifically Al Horford and taking advantage of that matchup late in the game. Considering the Celtics’ options at this point with Porzingis out and Xavier Tillman’s status up in the air (personal), this is a button I can see Carlisle and the Pacers pressing early and often. Siakam gets into the interior and takes the majority of his shots from midrange but that’s a shot Boston will live with him taking as they’d love to exchange 2s on defense for 3s on offense. Siakam also contributed from a rebounding and assisting perspective in Game 1 with 12 rebounds on 16 chances and 7 assists on 9 potentials. While those both should regress a bit, there’s clearly upside in those counting stats. I expect Siakam to be the offensive hub for the Pacers in Game 2 with Haliburton having a brutal matchup against Jrue and White on the perimeter. Plus, from a rotational perspective he saw a longer run in the 2Q and played nearly the full 12 there. If Boston is going to use their bench, it will be in those minutes which is a softer matchup for Siakam. In the two games Siakam has played against Boston alongside Haliburton he has averaged 23.5 points, 9 rebounds and 4.5 assists. I like Siakam to exceed 31.5 PRA tonight.

🎙️ Discussed on Cash That Podcast This number is shocking to me given the volume in Game 1. Al took a whopping 12 3 point attempts in Game 1 he had the green light all game on these pick and pop attempts for Boston. He kept getting lost on the defensive side of the ball and had plenty of opportunities to score. While 12 attempts seems high, he took 13 in the closeout game 5 against the Cavaliers. Additionally, without Porzingis he sees a spike to 2.3 made 3s on 5.8 attempts per game. This season, when Horford has taken five or more 3s he has cleared this line in 50% of games. With six or more this jumps to a whopping 78%. Horford has been incredibly efficient with his opportunities. This is a tough cover for the Pacers and to limit his attempts likely means surrendering opportunities to Tatum, Brown, or White, which is not an advisable plan moving forward. I’ll grab Big Al to drain three 3s.

#Tailing @JoeDellera

like this look a lot from @JoeDellera

🎙️ Discussed on Cash That Podcast The Boston Celtics escaped Game 1 with a narrow victory and one player that was instrumental to the team’s success was Jrue Holiday. Holiday made his impact felt on both sides of the floor and while I have some concerns about the scoring being replicable, the other counting stats were supported by the opportunity. Jrue played 48.3 minutes in Game 1 which included 5 minutes of overtime so we should obviously expect less run today; however, he still would have played about 43 minutes in regulation as Boston has seemingly slashed their bench minutes. He secured 7 boards on 14 chances and dished out 8 assists on 13 potentials for a combined 15 RA on 27 potentials. Given his role that seems generally sustainable. Additionally, Indiana turned the ball over a whopping 21 times and had an eFG% of 60.1%. That eFG% should regress against Boston’s elite defense and if they limit some of the turnovers those possessions now end in shots and rebound opportunities. There’s a bit of upside in that regard to mitigate the extra chances in Overtime. Jrue has smoked this line historically against Indiana with more than 10.5 RA in 85% of his games over the last few seasons. While some of this data is old when he was on the Bucks, it does demonstrate that this had been an exploitable matchup for him. I’ll grab Jrue to exceed 10.5 RA.

#Tailing @JoeDellera. Had 1 block entering OT and got a flukey one late. Going back go it.

None of this BS again lol