Mavericks vs. Thunder Odds & Betting Predictions - May 8, 2024

#Tailing @PropBomb

Averaged 11.8 potential assists in the regular season vs. DAL. Expecting more playmaking duties this series unlike vs. NOP where he had to motion off-ball to get off Herb Jones. The Mavericks are allowing the 3rd most assists per game to opposing backcourts since all star break. Dallas will likely pit Derrick Jones Jr. on SGA as his primary matchup for most of the game, and use Daniel Gafford as a roamer (likely guarding Josh Giddey) to clog the paint with additional layering if SGA looks to drive. In their previous regular season meeting, Kidd would double/hedge at the top to get the ball out of his hand and just like what we saw vs. LAC, George + Harden struggled against the Mavs lack of space. Overall, expecting more USG% from SGA and a lot of drive and kicks to score baskets. OKC is playing at home with the crowd behind, good for better assist conversion chances. #PlayerProps

Would play down to +150. Hit in 3/4 games vs Mavs this season. The one that he missed was the last game of season where starters barely played. Remove that game and Giddey has hit this prop in 7 of 9 career games vs Mavericks. I’ll take a swing that he has to chuck it bc Mavs dare him to shoot.

The Mavericks face off against the Thunder today in Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals. I expect Luka Doncic to set the tone early here. Although he’s had efficiency issues throughout the Playoffs as he seems to be dealing with a balky knee, he has now had 3+ days of rest - this game is likely the freshest he will feel throughout this series. When Luka has had 3+ days of rest this season he is averaging 35.6 ppg, higher than any of his averages. He has played 10 games with the 3+ days of rest and has exceeded 31.5 in 9/10 games. This game against the Thunder is one I want to target as well. Luka is averaging 34 ppg against OKC this season with 36 and 32 point performances. I can see OKC throwing Dort on him which may limit his efficiency, but Luka’s a volume king. I expect Luka to start this series off strong with some fresh legs and exceed 31.5 points.

Luka for threeeeee

Courtside pal gives a boost to the over and +ev bet with devig odds of -165 giving value to this number

#Tailing @SBK5065

Via @SBK5065

WE RIDE AGAIN!!! Averaging 48.1 in the playoffs and didn’t go over 52 PRA in any game in First Round vs LAC.

Over in last 4 games vs. OKC (24/18/28/34) and on top of that he’s over in each game without Maxi Kleber since the trade. Coming off his best game of the postseason (19 P+R) and has a much friendlier matchup in OKC than he did vs. Zubac.