Tigers vs. Astros Odds & Betting Predictions - October 1, 2024

Tigers at Astros

6:32 pm • ABC

Detroit Tigers

2-0

3 - 1

Houston Astros

0-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
F.Valdez			6.23	0-1
T.Skubal			2.37	1-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Tigers 2-0	+1.5	+1.5-198	o6.5-120	+120
Astros 0-2	u6.5	-1.5+164	u6.5+101	-142

Tuesday 6:32 p.m.

October 01, 2024

Daikin ParkHouston

HOU +2.5 (Live)+114

1.5u

Under 8.5 (Live)-110

Under 6.5-120

$12.50

Over 6.5-112

$1000.00

DET +105 (F5)

0.53u

DET +122

1.22u

Triple Crown on the mound at (+) money? Sign me up. 👑👑👑

Under 6.5-110

0.91u

Over 6-115

Under 3.5 (F5)-140

0.36u

HOU -142

0.5u

F.Valdez o6.5 Ks+110

Sura

HOU -0.5 (F5)+120

F.Valdez o17.5 Outs-110

F. Valdez ⬆️ 17.5 Outs (-110 @ MGM)(+120 w/ 33% Boost) This doesn't look as cut and dry and the trends would tell you. Playoff baseball is a different beast and in a short series the hook can come out a lot quicker. You gotta like this spot for Framber though, who has been hot to close out the season and facing a weak and inexperienced playoff offense in game 1. Framber owns a 1.73 ERA in September and he faces an offense that ranks 25th in OPS vs LHP over L30. Not to mention Framber had always been better at home: 2024 Home ERA: 2.53 2024 Home WHIP: 1.05 2024 Away ERA: 3.36 2024 Away WHIP: 1.17 What you have to love about Framber is he's a good situational pitcher that can be efficient with his pitch count. Need a ground ball for a double play? He'll pitch for that. Need a K? He'll pitch for that. This Tigers team also hasn't been in the playoffs since 2014 🤯. A majority of their roster does not have any playoff experience, so a slow start to the series and nerves can be expected. Framber has always performed well against DET too. Here are his last 3 starts against them saying back to last season: 5/10: 7 IP, 6 HA, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K's 8/25/23: 7 IP, 0 HA, 0 ER, 5 BB, 6 K's 4/4/24: 7 IP, 8 HA, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K's So he's gone 7 in all of those outings and generally pitched well. This is not a gimme given the situation, but I still think there's value here for a hot pitcher at home.

DET +135

1.35u

Sandy

DET +135

1.35u

DET +130

1.3u

@CamIsMoney18 tail

DET +130

1.3u

Johnny

F.Valdez o17.5 Outs-105

0.53u

DET +130

3.9u

DET +133

1.33u

HOU -142

3.55u

DET +129

3.87u

Bettingqueeen

DET +129

2.58u

Bettingqueeen

HOU -130

$1.30

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Featured Insight
Astros right-handed hitters have struck out just 18% against LHP since last season -- tied for second lowest in MLB. Tigers RPs have a strikeout rate of just 21% vs right-handed batters since last season -- second lowest in MLB.

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Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Tuesday MLB Playoff Betting Card
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Oct 1, 2024 UTC
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Tigers vs. Astros Prediction: Moneyline Bet for Game 1
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Astros vs. Tigers: +550 SGP for Wild Card Game 1
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See more MLB Coverage

The Tigers are 25-21 (.543) after a loss as underdogs this season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .435.

Jeremy Pena is slugging just .388 since last season -- tied for 14th worst in MLB-- 13th Percentile. Tarik Skubal has allowed a SLG of just .320 vs right-handed batters since last season -- 10th best among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP-- 93rd Percentile.

Jeremy Pena has an OPS of just .707 since the 2022 season -- seventh worst in MLB-- seventh Percentile. Tyler Holton has allowed an OPS of just .523 (717 PAs) since the 2022 season -- fifth best among qualified RPs-- 97th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .111 (46-for-416) against Tarik Skubal with two-strikes this season -- 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .163 -- 98th Percentile.

Tarik Skubal has allowed an OBP of just .159 (441 PA's) with two-strikes this season -- best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Astros are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Astros are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Astros are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Astros' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Astros' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Astros	82-80	37-44	45-36	43-60	39-18
Tigers	73-89	41-40	32-49	49-64	24-23

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Astros	72-83-7	36-43-2	36-40-5	45-56-2	25-27-5
Tigers	83-72-7	41-35-5	42-37-2	58-49-6	24-22-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Astros	16-23	46-35	41-40	56-47	31-26
Tigers	4-4	46-35	41-40	64-49	23-24

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 28th	@CLE	W 4-3	+1.5 W	U 7.5	HOU +135
Sep 27th	@CLE	W 5-2	+1.5 W	U 8.5	HOU +102
Sep 25th	SEA	L 1-8	+1.5 L	O 7.5	SEA +130
Sep 25th	SEA	W 4-3	-1.5 L	U 7	HOU -132
Sep 24th	SEA	L 1-6	-1.5 L	U 7.5	SEA -130

Reese Olson
SP
Olson is out with shoulder
Out
Jackson Jobe
SP
Jobe is out with elbow
Out
Trey Sweeney
SS
Sweeney is out with shoulder
Out
Sawyer Gipson-Long
SP
Gipson-Long is out with oblique
Out
Beau Brieske
RP
Brieske is out with groin
Out
Troy Melton
SP
Melton is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LT.Skubal, P	88	6	6	0
RW.Vest, P	24	1.2	4	0
LT.Holton, P	2	0.1	0	0
RJ.Foley, P	17	0.1	0	1
RB.Brieske, P	17	0.2	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1M.Vierling, 3B	1-4	0	1
2J.Malloy, DH	1-2	0	0
2K.Carpenter, PH	0-2	0	0
2K.Carpenter, DH	0-2	0	0
3R.Greene, LF	1-5	0	0
4A.Ibanez, 2B	1-2	0	0
4C.Keith, PH	0-1	0	0
4C.Keith, 2B	0-1	0	0
4Z.McKinstry, 2B	0-0	0	0
5W.Perez, RF	2-5	1	0
6S.Torkelson, 1B	0-2	0	0
7P.Meadows, CF	1-4	1	0
8J.Rogers, C	2-4	1	1
9T.Sweeney, SS	1-4	0	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LF.Valdez, P	78	4.1	3	3
RH.Neris, P	16	0.2	2	0
LB.King, P	12	0.2	1	0
RR.Blanco, P	50	2	4	0
LC.Ferguson, P	1	0.1	0	0
LJ.Hader, P	15	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Altuve, 2B	1-4	0	0
2K.Tucker, RF	0-4	0	0
3Y.Alvarez, DH	2-4	0	0
3Z.Dezenzo, PR	0-0	1	0
4A.Bregman, 3B	2-4	0	0
5Y.Diaz, C	1-3	0	1
6J.Pena, SS	0-3	0	0
7V.Caratini, 1B	1-4	0	0
8M.Dubon, LF	0-2	0	0
8J.Singleton, PH	0-1	0	0
8C.McCormick, LF	0-0	0	0
8C.McCormick, CF	0-0	0	0
9J.Meyers, CF	0-2	0	0
9J.Heyward, PH	0-2	0	0
9J.Heyward, LF	0-2	0	0