Tigers vs. Astros Odds & Betting Predictions - October 1, 2024

Tigers at Astros

6:32 pm • ABC

Detroit Tigers

2-0

3 - 1

Houston Astros

0-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
F.Valdez			6.23	0-1
T.Skubal			2.37	1-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Tigers 2-0	+1.5	+1.5-198	o6.5-120	+120
Astros 0-2	u6.5	-1.5+164	u6.5+101	-142

Tuesday 6:32 p.m.

October 01, 2024

Daikin ParkHouston

HOU +2.5 (Live)+114

1.5u

Over 6.5-112

$1000.00

DET +105 (F5)

0.53u

F.Valdez o6.5 Ks+110

DET +122

1.22u

Triple Crown on the mound at (+) money? Sign me up. 👑👑👑

Under 6.5-110

0.91u

DET +106 (F5)

0.53u

F.Valdez u6.5 Ks-132

0.38u

FanDuel

T.Skubal o6.5 Ks+128

0.5u

FanDuel

F.Valdez o6.5 Ks+110

Sura

HOU -0.5 (F5)+120

F.Valdez o17.5 Outs-110

F. Valdez ⬆️ 17.5 Outs (-110 @ MGM)(+120 w/ 33% Boost) This doesn't look as cut and dry and the trends would tell you. Playoff baseball is a different beast and in a short series the hook can come out a lot quicker. You gotta like this spot for Framber though, who has been hot to close out the season and facing a weak and inexperienced playoff offense in game 1. Framber owns a 1.73 ERA in September and he faces an offense that ranks 25th in OPS vs LHP over L30. Not to mention Framber had always been better at home: 2024 Home ERA: 2.53 2024 Home WHIP: 1.05 2024 Away ERA: 3.36 2024 Away WHIP: 1.17 What you have to love about Framber is he's a good situational pitcher that can be efficient with his pitch count. Need a ground ball for a double play? He'll pitch for that. Need a K? He'll pitch for that. This Tigers team also hasn't been in the playoffs since 2014 🤯. A majority of their roster does not have any playoff experience, so a slow start to the series and nerves can be expected. Framber has always performed well against DET too. Here are his last 3 starts against them saying back to last season: 5/10: 7 IP, 6 HA, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K's 8/25/23: 7 IP, 0 HA, 0 ER, 5 BB, 6 K's 4/4/24: 7 IP, 8 HA, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K's So he's gone 7 in all of those outings and generally pitched well. This is not a gimme given the situation, but I still think there's value here for a hot pitcher at home.

DET +135

1.35u

Sandy

DET +135

1.35u

DET +130

1.3u

Johnny

DET +130

3.9u

HOU -142

3.55u

DET +129

2.58u

Bettingqueeen

DET +129

3.87u

Bettingqueeen

Under 6.5-119

0.84u

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Featured Insight
Astros right-handed hitters have struck out just 18% against LHP since last season -- tied for second lowest in MLB. Tigers RPs have a strikeout rate of just 21% vs right-handed batters since last season -- second lowest in MLB.

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The Tigers are 25-21 (.543) after a loss as underdogs this season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .435.

Jeremy Pena is slugging just .388 since last season -- tied for 14th worst in MLB-- 13th Percentile. Tarik Skubal has allowed a SLG of just .320 vs right-handed batters since last season -- 10th best among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP-- 93rd Percentile.

Jeremy Pena has an OPS of just .707 since the 2022 season -- seventh worst in MLB-- seventh Percentile. Tyler Holton has allowed an OPS of just .523 (717 PAs) since the 2022 season -- fifth best among qualified RPs-- 97th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .111 (46-for-416) against Tarik Skubal with two-strikes this season -- 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .163 -- 98th Percentile.

Tarik Skubal has allowed an OBP of just .159 (441 PA's) with two-strikes this season -- best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Astros are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Astros are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Astros are 41-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Astros' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Astros' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Astros	81-80	40-41	41-39	56-60	23-19
Tigers	87-75	39-42	48-33	27-39	60-36

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Astros	65-91-5	37-41-3	28-50-2	45-66-5	18-24
Tigers	79-78-5	36-43-2	43-35-3	31-32-3	48-46-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Astros	0-2	46-35	42-38	66-50	20-22
Tigers	4-3	43-38	43-38	38-28	48-48

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 28th	@CLE	W 4-3	+1.5 W	U 7.5	HOU +135
Sep 27th	@CLE	W 5-2	+1.5 W	U 8.5	HOU +102
Sep 25th	SEA	L 1-8	+1.5 L	O 7.5	SEA +130
Sep 25th	SEA	W 4-3	-1.5 L	U 7	HOU -132
Sep 24th	SEA	L 1-6	-1.5 L	U 7.5	SEA -130

Lance McCullers
P
McCullers is out with arm
Out
Cristian Javier
P
Javier is out with elbow
Out
Luis Garcia
P
Garcia is out with elbow
Out

Javier Baez
IF
Baez is out with back
Out
Sawyer Gipson-Long
P
Gipson-Long is out with groin
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LT.Skubal, P	88	6	6	0
RW.Vest, P	24	1.2	4	0
LT.Holton, P	2	0.1	0	0
RJ.Foley, P	17	0.1	0	1
RB.Brieske, P	17	0.2	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1M.Vierling, 3B	1-4	0	1
2J.Malloy, DH	1-2	0	0
2K.Carpenter, PH	0-2	0	0
2K.Carpenter, DH	0-2	0	0
3R.Greene, LF	1-5	0	0
4A.Ibanez, 2B	1-2	0	0
4C.Keith, PH	0-1	0	0
4C.Keith, 2B	0-1	0	0
4Z.McKinstry, 2B	0-0	0	0
5W.Perez, RF	2-5	1	0
6S.Torkelson, 1B	0-2	0	0
7P.Meadows, CF	1-4	1	0
8J.Rogers, C	2-4	1	1
9T.Sweeney, SS	1-4	0	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LF.Valdez, P	78	4.1	3	3
RH.Neris, P	16	0.2	2	0
LB.King, P	12	0.2	1	0
RR.Blanco, P	50	2	4	0
LC.Ferguson, P	1	0.1	0	0
LJ.Hader, P	15	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Altuve, 2B	1-4	0	0
2K.Tucker, RF	0-4	0	0
3Y.Alvarez, DH	2-4	0	0
3Z.Dezenzo, PR	0-0	1	0
4A.Bregman, 3B	2-4	0	0
5Y.Diaz, C	1-3	0	1
6J.Pena, SS	0-3	0	0
7V.Caratini, 1B	1-4	0	0
8M.Dubon, LF	0-2	0	0
8J.Singleton, PH	0-1	0	0
8C.McCormick, LF	0-0	0	0
8C.McCormick, CF	0-0	0	0
9J.Meyers, CF	0-2	0	0
9J.Heyward, PH	0-2	0	0
9J.Heyward, LF	0-2	0	0