Pirates vs. Marlins Odds & Betting Predictions - June 22, 2023

Pirates at Marlins

10:40 pm • BSFL

Pittsburgh Pirates

30-28

4 - 6

Miami Marlins

26-32

pitcher		team	era	w-l
B.Garrett			3.66	9-7
M.Keller			4.21	13-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Pirates 30-28	N/A	N/A	N/A
Marlins 26-32	N/A	N/A	N/A

Thursday 10:40 p.m.

June 22, 2023

loanDepot parkMiami

B.Garrett o5.5 Ks-130

MIA -1-110

Over 6.5-117

has gotten laughably low

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-140

$71.43

PIT +145

0.5u

Another move against line movement, but I think this one has hit the point of resistance - Keller & Garrett have very similar estimators overall - MIA 102/93/106 wRC+ Hm/v RHP/L7 days, PIT 97/107/30 (going against the heat, but PIT better v LHP) - PIT small def edge (5 Runs Prevented) - the only large edge for MIA is the bullpen, but it's a small risk I'll take for a much better price than F5.

PIT +148

0.5u

MIA -126

Took this last night but have no memory of it. Think line has gotten out of hand a bit so im gonna hedge/arbitrage Pirates ML .5U

MIA u2.5 (F5)-175

0.57u

MIA -155

B.Garrett o5.5 Ks-118

0.85u

PIT +125

0.5u

Bet to +112

PIT +112 (F5)

0.84u

PIT +115

0.5u

PIT +104 (F5)

0.52u

Bet to +102

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The Marlins are 33-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season -- tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .949.

The Pirates are 33-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season -- tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .949.

The Marlins are just 8-8 (.500) when they've hit 2 or more home runs this season -- tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .683.

The Pirates are just 16-24 (.400) after a road win since last season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .492.

32% of Bryan De La Cruz strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- tied for 15th highest in MLB-- 91st Percentile. 60% of Mitch Keller's strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- fourth highest among qualified SPs-- 95th Percentile.

Jacob Stallings is slugging just .223 this season -- fourth worst among hitters with at least 108 total PA's-- first Percentile. Mitch Keller has allowed a SLG of just .313 vs right-handed batters this season -- eighth best among qualified SPs-- 88th Percentile.

Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (350/757) with two-strikes since last season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 93 total IP; League Avg: 31% -- 99th Percentile.

Mitch Keller has allowed a slugging percentage of just .163 (7 Total Bases / 43 ABs) on low fastballs this season -- 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .386 -- 98th Percentile.

Division opponents are hitting .362 (34-for-94) against Braxton Garrett this season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: .249 -- first Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Marlins are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Marlins are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Marlins are 11-15 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Marlins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 17 of Marlins' 33 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	24-35	13-20	11-15	14-18	10-17
Pirates	30-29	15-17	15-12	17-17	12-12

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Marlins	35-21-3	17-16	18-5-3	15-17	20-4-3
Pirates	32-25-2	21-11	11-14-2	22-12	9-13-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	26-33	18-15	8-18	20-12	6-21
Pirates	31-28	17-15	14-13	20-14	10-14

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 21st	TOR	L 3-6	-	-	-
Jun 20th	TOR	L 0-2	-	-	-
Jun 19th	TOR	W 11-0	-	-	-
Jun 18th	@WSH	W 4-2	-	-	-
Jun 17th	@WSH	W 5-2	-	-	-

Maximo Acosta
SS
Acosta is out with oblique
Out
Adam Mazur
SP
Mazur is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Keller, P	107	7	5	1
RD.Moreta, P	15	0	0	3
RC.Mlodzinski, P	19	1	0	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Hayes, 3B	2-4	1	1	1
2A.McCutchen, DH	0-3	0	0	0
3C.Joe, LF	1-4	1	0	0
3C.Joe, RF	1-4	1	0	0
4C.Santana, 1B	1-4	1	0	1
5R.Castro, SS	0-4	0	0	0
5R.Castro, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
6J.Suwinski, CF	0-4	0	0	0
6J.Suwinski, LF	0-4	0	0	0
7H.Davis, RF	1-2	1	1	1
7T.Marcano, SS	0-0	0	0	0
7J.Delay, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8J.Bae, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
8J.Bae, CF	0-3	0	0	0
9A.Hedges, C	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LB.Garrett, P	88	7	13	1
LA.Nardi, P	18	0.2	1	2
RH.Brazoban, P	4	0.1	0	0
LA.Puk, P	19	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1L.Arraez, 2B	1-3	1	0	0
2J.Soler, DH	1-4	1	0	0
3B.De La Cruz, LF	1-4	1	0	2
4J.Sanchez, RF	0-4	0	0	0
5G.Cooper, 1B	3-4	2	1	3
6J.Berti, 3B	2-4	0	0	0
7J.Wendle, SS	1-3	0	0	1
8N.Fortes, C	0-4	0	0	0
9J. Davis, CF	1-3	1	0	0