Dodgers vs. Brewers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 15, 2025

Projecting this closer to -140. Muncy walks at a high rate because he does an excellent job laying off pitches out of the zone. Peralta tends to work outside of the zone at a high rate trying to get hitters to chase. He’s walked LHB at a 4% higher rate this year and Muncy has walked against RHP at a 10% higher rate. Brewers probably want Peralta to get as deep into the game as possible with their bullpen a bit taxed after the last few days so I think we could see Muncy face him a 3rd time which would be huge. If not, there’s no one in the bullpen that would be a real issue if Peralta gets pulled a bit earlier. Home plate up Gabe Morales has been squeezing pitchers lately, especially where Peralta likes to miss with his curveball low.

I think the only reason this line is this short is because the Brewers absolutely destroyed Yamamoto in their lone meeting this year. It was far and away the worst outing of his season and possibly of his MLB career. They tagged him for 5 runs, and he didn’t even make it out of the first inning. However, Yamamoto is elite and will look to bounce back tonight. Yesterday’s Dodgers win might look close on paper, but Los Angeles completely dominated that game. They posted a 97% “deserved to win” percentage and were simply unlucky with a few double play balls. The Brewers dark magic luck needs to be studied. I’ve said it all year, this Milwaukee team just isn’t that good. They finished the season with the 6th lowest slugging percentage in baseball. While slugging isn’t everything, it’s crucial in October when runs are hard to come by and home runs often become your saving grace. This Brewers team is a regression candidate in every sense, ranking 4th in MLB’s luck metrics. Speaking of regression, Freddy Peralta fits that mold perfectly. He owns a 2.70 ERA, but carries a 3.47 xERA and 3.85 xFIP, both almost a full run higher than his ERA. The Dodgers lineup is elite and ranks 4th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Peralta’s been solid at home, but he’s looked shaky this postseason, especially with his command. He lasted just 4 innings in his last start due to a high pitch count, and that could be a problem again tonight against a Dodgers lineup that ranks 2nd in walk rate. Once Peralta exits, the Brewers unrested bullpen takes over. While reliable, this unit is worn down as Uribe, Misiorowski, Patrick, Ashby, and Megill have all thrown 30+ pitches over the last four days. Meanwhile, the Dodgers arms are basically fully rested after finishing off the Phillies on Thursday, compared to Milwaukee battling the Cubs until Saturday. Yoshinobu Yamamoto enters with a 2.49 ERA, 2.73 xERA, and 2.94 xFIP which are all elite sub-3 marks. He’s also been much better on the road with a 2.13 ERA compared to a 3.04 ERA at home. Yamamoto is a ground ball pitcher, generating ground balls 53.7% of the time. While he got crushed last time against Milwaukee, I’ll trust his .207 expected batting average against and nearly 30% strikeout rate. Once Yamamoto exits, we’ll likely see a solid trio of Casparius, Treinen, and Vesia. The Dodgers have the better lineup, the better starting pitcher, and the fresher bullpen. This feels like a discounted price on the far superior team. Give me the Dodgers moneyline.

Tailing @Zerillo

@Zerillo https://myaction.app/7WmkAQEKsXb

Bet to -120

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Bet to -130