Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Odds & Betting Predictions - March 28, 2025

#BQ

Steele is a great pitcher, but he can let games get away from him. We saw this in spring training this year with him pitching in just 8.2 IP, but had an ERA of 9.35. This carried over to Tokyo as he was chased from the game early after allowing 5 hits and 5 runs in just 4 innings. He draws a tough matchup as well with the D-Backs playing great in spring ball. This D-Back lineup hits lefties well, with a BA of .281 vs LHP in spring training. They were one of the better teams vs LHP last year as well, so no surprise they continued right on pace this spring. Steele went under this line in last years opener with 14 and followed that up with 14 and 12 outs in the next games. He had 67, 68 and 74 pitches in those 3 games before being allowed to run deeper into games. He had just 12 outs on 64 pitches in the Tokyo start and with a fresh bullpen, I would project him somewhere around 80-85 pitches max. Cubs Manager Craig Counsell is an analytics guy as he spent time in Milwaukee's front office, so I would think he would have a shorter leash on Steele today. Especially with him already pitching in Tokyo, a fresh Bullpen and facing a tough matchup for LHP.

5.14% ev pinny line +100

Fading the Cubs and Steelers again. Steele struggled in spring training and struggled in their game against the Dodgers in Tokyo. Dbacks hit LHP really well last year and they’ve got a lot of the same guys back this year so expect the same results against a struggling Steele

DK line

Justin Steele owns the D-backs – 1.00 ERA, 25 Ks in last 18 IP vs AZ. Cubs 6th in HardHit% vs RHP last year, added Kyle Tucker + Busch slugged .483 vs RHP in AAA. Gallen solid, but 1.28 WHIP over final 6 starts last season. AZ also hit just .217 vs LHP late 2024. Early edge if they jump Gallen’s fastball—he’s hittable when behind in counts. Steele's rough Tokyo start? Outlier. Dominant vs this lineup historically. Gallen’s control dipped late ’24 – 8.7% walk rate. Cubs pack lefty firepower – Happ, Tucker, Crow-Armstrong, Busch. Gallen more hittable vs lefties. Chase Field boosts power bats, and Cubs have multiple guys who can lift it. Strong shot to chase Gallen by mid-innings. Cubs more battle-tested after opening vs Dodgers in Japan. D-backs making changes – new 1B, 3B, DH. Cubs’ lefty-heavy lineup matches up well here. Add in urgency after 0-2 start? Big edge CHC. Steele bounce-back incoming. Cubs need this early-season tone setter—expect a locked-in effort start to finish.