Blue Jays vs. Phillies Odds & Betting Predictions - May 7, 2024

Blue Jays at Phillies

10:40 pm • SN1

Toronto Blue Jays

59-42

1 - 10

Philadelphia Phillies

58-43

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C.Sanchez			3.32	11-9
J.Berrios			3.60	16-11

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Blue Jays 59-42	-1.5+164	o8-111	-102
Phillies 58-43	+1.5-196	u8-109	-117

Tuesday 10:40 p.m.

May 07, 2024

Citizens Bank ParkPhiladelphia

PHI -113

0.88u

J.Berrios u5.5 Ks-125

1.25u

He just doesn’t miss enough bats - 18th percentile in whiff rate, despite a 16 whiff performance vs a terrible Rockies lineup. Phillies with a 19.3% K% vs righties over the L2 weeks (8th best), and more specifically,the 8th lowest called strike rate. Just don’t see Berrios getting into enough 2 strike counts vs this lineup.

PHI -120

0.83u

Phillies have won 10 in a row at home and the Blue Jays are schuffling.

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-103

1.03u

PHI -125

0.8u

B.Bichette u1.5 Total Bases-122

PHI -1.5+160

0.8u

Best mf team in baseball

PHI -2.5+240

1.2u

The best god dang team in baseball

PHI -130

0.77u

Best team in baseball

TOR +120

PHI -124

0.5u

Edit: Bet to -115 after lineups

PHI -125 (F5)

0.5u

Edit: Bet to -115 after lineups

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Featured Insight
Phillies hitters have a hard-hit rate of 44% over the last two weeks -- fifth best in MLB. Opponents have a hard-hit rate of 46% against the Blue Jays RPs over the last two weeks -- third worst in MLB.

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The Phillies are 115-83 (.581) since the 2023 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 35-65 (.350) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season -- 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .268.

The Blue Jays are just 10-68 (.128) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.

Bryce Harper is slugging .500 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season -- 15th best in MLB-- 86th Percentile. Jose Berrios has thrown his curveball 30% of the time since last season -- third highest among qualified SPs-- 92nd Percentile.

Jose Berrios has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (218/630) this season -- highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 14% -- 100th Percentile.

Jose Berrios has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (153/374) against right-handed batters this season -- highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 14% -- 100th Percentile.

Cristopher Sanchez has thrown his changeup 49% of the time (278/567) with two-strikes since last season -- 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total CH; League Avg: 16% -- 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 69% (88/127) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts since last season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 45% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Phillies are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Phillies are 25-25 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Phillies' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 25 of Phillies' 51 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Phillies	50-51	25-26	25-25	39-41	11-10
Blue Jays	60-41	34-19	26-22	23-23	36-17

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Phillies	41-56-4	25-24-2	16-32-2	33-43-4	8-13
Blue Jays	52-46-3	30-21-2	22-25-1	24-21-1	27-24-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Phillies	58-43	33-18	25-25	51-29	7-14
Blue Jays	59-42	36-17	23-25	28-18	30-23

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 6th	SF	W 6-1	-1.5 W	U 7.5	PHI -234
May 5th	SF	W 5-4	+1.5 W	O 8.5	PHI -111
May 4th	SF	W 14-3	-1.5 W	O 7	PHI -172
May 3rd	SF	W 4-3	-1.5 L	U 7.5	PHI -180
May 1st	@LAA	W 2-1	-1.5 L	U 8	PHI -207

Alec Bohm
3B
Bohm is out with ribs
Out

Anthony Santander
RF
Santander is out with shoulder
Out
Alek Manoah
SP
Manoah is out with elbow
Out
Bowden Francis
SP
Francis is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Berrios, P	90	3.2	7	8
RT.Richards, P	18	1.1	1	0
LG.Cabrera, P	15	1	1	0
RZ.Pop, P	3	1	0	0
LT.Mayza, P	22	0.2	1	2
RE.Swanson, P	5	0.1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1G.Springer, RF	1-4	0	0
2V.Guerrero, 1B	0-3	0	0
3J.Turner, 3B	1-4	0	0
3E.Clement, 3B	0-0	0	0
4B.Bichette, SS	0-4	0	0
5D.Schneider, LF	0-3	0	0
6D.Jansen, DH	2-3	1	0
6D.Vogelbach, PH	0-1	0	0
7A.Kirk, C	1-3	0	0
8I.Kiner-Falefa, 2B	1-3	0	1
9K.Kiermaier, CF	0-2	0	0

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
LC.Sanchez, P		89	7	5	1
RS.Turnbull, P		33	2	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Schwarber, DH	1-4	1	0	0
2W.Merrifield, LF	1-5	0	0	0
3B.Harper, 1B	3-3	2	1	4
4N.Castellanos, RF	1-4	0	0	1
5B.Marsh, CF	0-4	0	0	0
6B.Stott, 2B	2-4	2	0	0
7E.Sosa, SS	1-3	2	0	1
8K.Clemens, 3B	2-4	2	1	4
9G.Stubbs, C	0-2	1	0	0