All 30 MLB teams are in action Tuesday, with plenty of betting on the slate for May 7.
Take a look below at our MLB best bets from Tuesday's "Payoff Pitch" podcast.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 p.m. | Over 8.5 (-110) |
  | 6:40 p.m. | Phillies ML (-113) |
Diamondbacks vs. Reds Over 8.5 (-110)
6:40 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
This line has moved against me from when I took Over 9 last night.
We've talked about Zac Gallen a lot on this show, and we have probably been wrong going against him more often than right, but I'm still convinced this isn't the same guy right now. There are some underlying metrics that I think stick out in terms of his strikeout-walk rate and his zone-rate is down 8% from last year. His first-pitch strike rate is down 20% and his whiffs in the zone have gone down about 6%. He's been giving up a lot more hard contact this year because he's been behind in counts.
Frankie Montas' last few starts have been really ugly. I am not sure if he is hurt or what. His peripheral numbers have been bad as a whole, but his BABIP has been good to maintain decent numbers; but the way he's pitching, he just isn't a serviceable starter. These two starting pitchers in Great American Ball Park, given how they are pitching, should not have a line of nine.
I like the over in this one and hopefully the balls are flying in Cincinnati.
Pick: Over 8.5
Phillies ML (-113) vs. Blue Jays
6:40 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
By Sean Zerillo
The Phillies were my biggest edge on today's slate.
Jose Berrios is a pitcher who's showing a declining strikeout rate, and now that we have 6-8 games on starting pitchers, I think that is a worthy sample size. He is showing the second-worst strikeout rate of his career, and he has always been a guy who's shown worse road splits than at home. He has been very lucky this season with a 1.44 ERA considering he has a 4.9 xERA.
On the other side is Christopher Sanchez, an Action Network favorite. I think the betting market is still missing how effective this guy is.
The Phillies also have the bullpen advantage. They have one of the best bullpens in baseball and are ranked top seven across the board, while the Jays are a bottom-five bullpen in those underlying indicators.
Pick: Phillies ML (-113)
