Below, you'll find my MLB starting pitchers breakdown for the MLB slate on Tuesday, May 7th. This can be used as a guide when betting strikeout and walk props for individual pitchers on today's slate.
Here's a guide to help you understand how it works:
This is a look at how a pitcher has performed in strikeouts and walks this season compared to how they are expected to perform based on my model.
So, if a pitcher's eK% is higher than his K%, you can expect him to compile more strikeouts than we've seen thus far this season. The inverse is also true.
This should serve as another tool when making decisions betting strikeout and walk props. There are obviously a myriad of other factors that go into whether you should bet an over or under (or not bet the prop at all), but eK% is something I use to help update the baseline for starting pitchers and then I run my sims to get exact strikeout projections. It's just another piece in that puzzle.
It's also worth noting that for starting pitchers with fewer than 70 total batters faced, their eK% should be taken with a grain of salt. If a pitcher has a huge difference but a small sample, it's less predictive than someone with a larger sample seeing a gap in the 3-5+ percent range.
Here is my starting pitchers breakdown for Tuesday, May 7th:
Key:
- TBF – Total batters faced so far this season.
- K% – Pitcher's strikeout percentage to date.
- BB% – Pitcher's walk percentage to date.
- eK% – Pitcher's expected strikeout percentage to date, according to my model.
- eBB% – Pitcher's expected walk percentage to date, according to my model.
- K% Diff – The difference between the pitcher's K% and their eK%.
- BB% Diff – The difference between the pitcher's BB% and their eBB%.
