Astros vs. Yankees Odds & Betting Predictions - May 7, 2024

Astros at Yankees

11:05 pm • TBS

Houston Astros

12-11

3 - 10

New York Yankees

14-10

pitcher		team	era	w-l
L.Gil			3.50	15-7
J.Verlander			5.48	5-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Astros 12-11	+1.5-191	o8.5-113	+103
Yankees 14-10	-1.5+160	u8.5-107	-122

Tuesday 11:05 p.m.

May 07, 2024

Yankee StadiumBronx

NYY -125

HOU +105 (F5)

NYY -120

NYY -125

Over 8.5-115

0.87u

Y.Alvarez o0.5 HR+265

0.5u

L.Gil u5.5 Ks+120

0.6u

HOU +100

1.5u

L.Gil u5.5 Ks+112

1.12u

Racks up a ton of strikeouts -- but also a ton of walks. Drags out plate appearances and prevents him from going deeper in games. Facing a team with a 15% strikeout rate against righties on the active roster. Has gone over this number in five of six starts -- just think that has inflated expectations too much.

Over 8-122

0.82u

Skeptical of both Luis Gil (due to walks) and Justin Verlander (fly-ball pitcher at Yankee Stadium). Both offenses have a wRC+ of at least 118 against righties this year. Think this should be a nine-run total.

Featured Insight
Opponents are hitting just .228 (263-for-1,154) against Astros RPs with RISP since the 2022 season -- fourth best in MLB. The Yankees are batting just .241 with RISP since the 2022 season -- tied for fourth worst in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Yankees have won 64% of their games this season -- tied for fourth best in MLB. Astros have won just 35% of their games this season -- tied for fourth worst.

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The Astros are 56-40 (.583) on the road since the 2023 season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .481.

The Astros are just 8-13 (.381) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Yankees are 67-39 (.632) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .587.

Trent Grisham has struck out in 28% of PA's since the 2022 season -- sixth highest in MLB-- fifth Percentile. Josh Hader has a strikeout rate of 37% since the 2022 season -- third highest among qualified RPs-- 98th Percentile.

Luis Gil has a first-pitch strike rate of just 43% (20/46) over the last 14 days -- 2nd lowest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 64% -- fourth Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .513 (682 PA's) vs left-handed batters since the 2022 season -- best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: .711 -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Yankees are 4-8 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Yankees' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 7 of Yankees' 12 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Yankees	12-12	8-4	4-8	11-8	1-4
Astros	13-10	8-6	5-4	7-7	6-2

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Yankees	12-10-2	7-5	5-5-2	10-8-1	2-2-1
Astros	8-13-2	5-9	3-4-2	6-8	1-5-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Yankees	14-10	8-4	6-6	13-6	1-4
Astros	12-11	8-6	4-5	7-7	5-3

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 5th	DET	W 5-2	-1.5 W	O 6.5	NYY -135
May 4th	DET	W 5-3	-1.5 W	O 7.5	NYY -170
May 3rd	DET	W 2-1	-1.5 L	U 7.5	NYY -170
May 2nd	@BAL	L 2-7	-1.5 L	U 9	BAL -105
May 1st	@BAL	W 2-0	+1.5 W	U 8.5	NYY +127

Lance McCullers
P
McCullers is out with arm
Out
Taylor Trammell
OF
Trammell is out with calf
Out
Cristian Javier
P
Javier is out with elbow
Out
Luis Garcia
P
Garcia is out with elbow
Out
Pedro Leon
OF
Leon is out with knee
Out
J.P. France
P
France is out with shoulder
Out
Spencer Arrighetti
P
Arrighetti is out with thumb
Out

Gerrit Cole
P
Cole is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
DJ LeMahieu
IF
LeMahieu is out with calf
Out
Giancarlo Stanton
DH
Stanton is out with elbow
Out
Luis Gil
P
Gil is out with back
Out
JT Brubaker
P
Brubaker is out with ribs
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Verlander, P	97	5	2	7
RT.Scott, P	16	1	0	1
RB.Bielak, P	30	1	0	2
RS.Martinez, P	20	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Altuve, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
1J.Amaya, 2B	0-1	0	0	0
2K.Tucker, RF	1-2	1	1	1
2J.Loperfido, RF	0-1	0	0	0
3Y.Alvarez, DH	0-1	0	0	0
3Y.Diaz, PH	0-1	0	0	0
3Y.Diaz, DH	0-1	0	0	0
4A.Bregman, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
5J.Pena, SS	0-4	0	0	0
6J.Singleton, 1B	0-1	1	0	0
7V.Caratini, C	0-4	1	0	0
8T.Cabbage, LF	1-4	0	0	2
9J.Meyers, CF	1-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Gil, P	97	6	5	1
RR.Marinaccio, P	24	2	0	0
RM.Tonkin, P	28	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1A.Volpe, SS	1-5	1	1	3
1J.Jones, RF	0-0	0	0	0
2J.Soto, RF	3-4	2	0	0
2O.Cabrera, PR	0-0	0	0	0
2O.Cabrera, RF	0-0	0	0	0
2O.Cabrera, SS	0-0	0	0	0
3A.Judge, CF	1-3	1	0	1
3T.Grisham, CF	0-0	0	0	0
4A.Verdugo, LF	3-5	1	1	4
5G.Stanton, DH	1-4	2	1	1
6A.Rizzo, 1B	1-3	1	0	0
7G.Torres, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
8J.Trevino, C	1-4	1	0	0
9J.Berti, 3B	2-4	1	0	1