Astros vs. Royals Odds & Betting Predictions - April 11, 2024

Astros at Royals

6:10 pm • BSKC

Houston Astros

0-2

3 - 13

Kansas City Royals

3-3

pitcher		team	era	w-l
B.Singer			3.71	9-13
H.Brown			3.49	11-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Astros 0-2	-1.5+130	o8.5-110	-125
Royals 3-3	+1.5-155	u8.5-110	+105

Thursday 6:10 p.m.

April 11, 2024

Kauffman StadiumKansas City

HOU -127

B.Witt o1.5 Total Bases-105

0.48u

Y.Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases+110

0.5u

Bet365 1:29.

HOU -130

0.75u

Bet365 1:28.

B.Singer o3.5 Ks-156

0.32u

Ballpark pal projects 4.3 Ks and +EV with devig odds of -184 giving us value at this number

B.Singer o3.5 Ks-145

H.Brown o4.5 Ks-125

KC +115

1.15u

… home dog off high scoring game Overall: 259-253-0,51% (ROI:12%) Season:0-1-0,0% (ROI:-100%)

HOU -135

1.35u

HOU -125 (F5)

1.25u

B.Singer o3.5 Ks-135

I know it’s a tough matchup, but this line reads as 1 K too low. Singer has a 20%+ K% at home each of the last two seasons, and was 13/16 in full home starts last season. 10 and 4 in two games so far, with 18 and 9 whiffs. His slider has been on point so far - he’s generating a bit more movement on the pitch than the last few seasons. Astros a little more K prone in away games, and we could see a soft lineup for a day/getaway game (we’ll at least get the backup catcher).

H.Brown o4.5 Ks-115

0.5u

Bottom of the market on Hunter Brown who has not been good in his first two starts but in a good buy low spot with an added day of rest. Browns Stuff+ remains above average (102) and does his Pitching +, Location+ He’s due for some positive regression with his Chase / whiff rate down a ton early on. No real underlying concerns so I’d expect his K rate to jump back up toward 27-28% There’s some high K bats in this Royals lineup including Velasquez, Renfroe & even Witt Koerner projects 5.2

J.Abreu u0.5 Hits+180

This is how I’m betting the MLB season

KC +114

1.14u

KC +115

1.15u

HOU o4.5-125

1.25u

HOU -130

1.3u

#tailing @Zerillo

HOU -130

1.3u

HOU -122

0.5u

Superbook. Bet to -141

HOU -125 (F5)

0.5u

B365 has -115. Bet to -143

Featured Insight
The Astros scored three or more runs in an inning 105 times (7%) last season -- fifth highest in MLB. Royals allowed innings of 3+ runs in 7% of innings played last season -- fourth highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Opponents have a hard-hit rate of just 27% against the Royals RPs over the last week -- third best in MLB. Astros hitters have a hard-hit rate of just 35% over the last week -- fifth worst in MLB.

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Opening Pitch: Zerillo's MLB Bets for Thursday
Sean Zerillo•
Apr 11, 2024 UTC

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The Royals are just 7-44 (.137) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .384.

MJ Melendez has struck out in 26% of PA's since the 2022 season -- tied for 10th highest in MLB-- 10th Percentile. Josh Hader has a strikeout rate of 36% since the 2022 season -- fifth highest among qualified RPs-- 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (95/499) against Hunter Brown since the 2022 season -- 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 23% -- 99th Percentile.

Hunter Brown has allowed an OBP of .667 (15 PA's) versus the top of the order this season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .327 -- 0 Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 82% (14/17) against Brady Singer this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Royals are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Royals are 44-37 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Royals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 38 of Royals' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Royals	87-75	43-38	44-37	40-38	46-37
Astros	81-80	40-41	41-39	56-60	23-19

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Royals	69-88-5	38-42-1	31-46-4	32-46	36-42-5
Astros	65-91-5	37-41-3	28-50-2	45-66-5	18-24

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Royals	86-76	45-36	41-40	49-29	36-47
Astros	88-73	46-35	42-38	66-50	20-22

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 10th	HOU	W 11-2	+1.5 W	O 9.5	KC +104
Apr 9th	HOU	W 4-3	+1.5 W	U 8.5	KC +101
Apr 7th	CWS	W 5-3	-1.5 W	U 9	KC -130
Apr 6th	CWS	W 3-0	-1.5 W	U 9.5	KC -238
Apr 5th	CWS	W 2-1	-1.5 L	U 8	KC -185

Lance McCullers
P
McCullers is out with arm
Out
Cristian Javier
P
Javier is out with elbow
Out
Luis Garcia
P
Garcia is out with elbow
Out

Kyle Wright
P
Wright is out for season with shoulder
Out for Season

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RH.Brown, P	40	0.2	0	9
RS.Martinez, P	25	2.1	1	0
RT.Scott, P	31	2	1	0
RR.Montero, P	28	1	1	1
RB.Abreu, P	19	1	1	3
RG.Kessinger, P	11	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Altuve, 2B	3-4	0	0	0
2Y.Alvarez, LF	0-3	0	0	1
2J.Meyers, PH	0-1	0	0	0
2J.Meyers, LF	0-1	0	0	0
3K.Tucker, RF	0-4	0	0	0
4A.Bregman, 3B	1-5	0	0	0
5Y.Diaz, DH	2-4	1	1	1
6J.Singleton, 1B	1-3	0	0	0
7J.Pena, SS	1-5	1	0	0
8V.Caratini, C	1-4	1	0	0
9M.Dubon, CF	2-4	0	0	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RB.Singer, P	87	5	4	1
RN.Anderson, P	27	0.2	0	2
LA.Zerpa, P	2	0.1	0	0
RM.Sauer, P	40	2	2	0
RJ. Lyles, P	11	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Garcia, 3B	2-5	2	0	2
2B.Witt, SS	4-5	4	2	5
2G.Hampson, SS	0-0	0	0	0
3V.Pasquantino, DH	3-5	1	0	3
4S.Perez, 1B	1-3	0	0	0
4D.Blanco, PH	0-1	0	0	0
4D.Blanco, RF	0-1	0	0	0
5M.Melendez, RF	1-4	1	0	0
5M.Melendez, 1B	1-4	1	0	0
6N.Velazquez, LF	1-5	1	0	1
7N.Loftin, 2B	1-3	2	0	2
8F.Fermin, C	1-4	1	0	0
9K.Isbel, CF	2-4	1	0	0