Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Thursday, April 11.
MLB Predictions Today | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview (Thursday, April 11)
Astros vs. Royals
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +114 | 9 -100o / -122u | -142 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -137 | 9 -100o / -122u | +120 |
Hunter Brown vs. Brady Singer
Despite a poor start to the season (7 IP, 12 H, 6 R, 6 BB, 8 K), Hunter Brown retains above-average pitch-modeling metrics (102 Stuff+, 101 Location+ 104 and 100, respectively, last season) and superior 2024 projections (projected FIP range of 3.80 to 4.07) compared to Brady Singer.
After a breakout campaign in 2022 (3.23 ERA, 3.97 xERA, 3.30 xFIP), Singer saw a dip in fastball velocity (from 93.8 mph. to 92.1 mph) and a decline in overall effectiveness (5.52 ERA, 4.96 xERA).
Singer posted a 91 Stuff+, 102 Location+, and 100 Pitching+ rating in 2022. His Stuff+ dipped to 84 last season (95 Pitching+) and remains in that territory this season (93 Stuff+) while showing a similar fastball level to last year.
While Singer's fastball velocity has dropped 1.5 mph in two years, his slider is down nearly two full ticks:
This season, he has modified his pitch mix — opting for more four-seamers and fewer sinkers. Still, Singer's slider is his most-used pitch (39.6% career; 48.8% this season), and it has graded out as a below-average offering for the past two seasons (94 Stuff+, 86 last season, and 102 in 2022).
Projection systems put Singer between a 4.08 and 4.30 FIP projection for 2024, and unless his velocity returns, I view him towards the lower end of that range, on par with some of his 2023 indicators (4.29 FIP, 4.28 xFIP).
Assuming regular lineups against right-handed starters, I'd set the Astros as -156 favorites over the first five innings (F5) and would bet that moneyline up to -143.
I projected Houston's full game moneyline at -142 and would take -131 or better.
Bet: Astros F5 ML (-143 or better) | Astros ML (-131 or better)
Athletics vs. Rangers
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -134 | 9.5 -104o / -118u | +152 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +112 | 9.5 -104o / -118u | -180 |
J.P. Sears vs. Jon Gray
Aside from electric closer Mason Miller (150 Stuff+), southpaw JP Sears (114 Stuff+) — who came over from the Yankees in the Frankie Montas trade — has the liveliest arm on Oakland's staff.
Sears showed promise in the past, but his pitch modeling metrics have improved (93 Stuff+ last season). He has four average offerings (141 sinker, 109 slider, 109 four-seamer, 104 changeup) and is showing improved command.
Sears has moved away from his four-seamer (36.2% usage, down from 51.3% career) and relied more heavily upon his slider (39.1%, up from 32.6% career).
While early returns aren't encouraging (9 1/3 IP, 12 H, 9 R, 3 BB, 2 K), Sears may be a vastly improved version of a pitcher who posted a 4.54 ERA, 4.64 xERA and 5.10 xFIP last season. I view him toward the more optimistic end of his projection range for 2024 (projected FIP range of 4.48 to 5.04).
On paper, there isn't a substantial difference between Sears and veteran Jon Gray (projected FIP range of 4.29-4.67), who has posted a 78 Stuff+ through two starts, down from 97 last season and 102 in 2022. Gray's fastball velocity has dropped from 96 mph to 94.4 mph over that span, and his effectiveness appears to be waning.
Gray's fastball velocity never fell this low at any point over the past two seasons:
While my projection aligns with the full-game moneyline, I see value in the Athletics in the first half. Bet Oakland on the F5 moneyline, down to +141 (projected +130).
Bet: Athletics F5 ML (+141 or better)
Pirates vs. Phillies
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 9 -110o / -110u | +124 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 9 -110o / -110u | -146 |
Jared Jones vs. Ranger Suarez
With apologies to Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga, Jared Jones has been the most impressive rookie pitcher in 2024.
The 22-year-old former second-round pick has posted a ludicrous 138 Stuff+ rating, with four plus pitches: 157 Stuff+ on his changeup, 148 on the fastball, 133 for his curveball and a 127 rating on his slider. Jones has struck out 17 of his first 48 big-league opponents (35.4% K%).
Jones's fastball averages 97.1 mph, the third-highest among starting pitchers behind Hunter Greene and Bobby Miller. He throws the second-hardest changeup (90.6 mph) behind Luis Gil.
Jones's initial 2024 projections had his FIP range as high as 4.83; updated projections put his range between 4.16 and 4.49. However, these elite pitch modeling metrics show Jones as a sub-2.00 pitcher thus far and indicate that he already has among the best stuff in baseball.
Jones only pitched 126 innings last season and 122 in 2022; the Pirates must manage his workload at some point. Still, Jones should help make a formidable, homegrown starting rotation in Pittsburgh alongside top pitching prospect Paul Skenes, Quinn Priester and the recently extended Mitch Keller.
The projection gap is narrowing between Jones and Ranger Suarez (projected FIP range of 3.98 to 4.13), who may have a higher floor with excellent command but also offers a substantially lower ceiling (88 Stuff+).
I'd expect Suarez to continue to hover around his 2023 results (4.18 ERA, 4.36 xERA, 4.05 xFIP) for the foreseeable future.
I'd need +118 or better to play the Pirates' F5 moneyline (projected +109) and +133 to bet them over nine innings (projected +123)
Bet: Pirates F5 ML (+118 or better) |Pirates ML (+133 or better)
Orioles vs. Red Sox
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +126 | 9 -100o / -122u | -124 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -152 | 9 -100o / -122u | +106 |
Grayson Rodriguez vs. Garrett Whitlock
Since being recalled to the majors on July 17 last season, Grayson Rodriguez has posted a 2.53 ERA, 3.00 FIP, and 3.59 xFIP, alongside elite pitch-modeling metrics (124 Stuff+, 105 Location+, 111 Pitching+).
Among the 121 starting pitchers who have tossed at least 50 innings over that span, Rodriguez has the highest Pitching+ rating and the lowest botERA (2.51), ahead of Zack Wheeler (2.61), Sandy Alcantara (2.88) and George Kirby (2.94), which is elite company.
Rodriguez has four above-average offerings (141 changeup, 119 sinker, 110 four-seamer, 107 curveball), but he's surprisingly re-introduced his cutter (86 Stuff+ compared to 78 last season), which he had seemingly scrapped during his last stint in the minors.
I hope that Rodriguez moves away from his worst pitch again (11% usage thus far in 2024). Regardless, he projects as an elite arm (projected FIP range of 3.61 to 3.94), and I expect him to maintain an award-worthy level of effectiveness.
Under the tutelage of new pitching coach Andrew Bailey, the Boston Red Sox are throwing fastballs at a 30.5% clip — less frequently than any team on record. The Orioles (34.9%) and Twins (39.4%) rank second and third all-time, respectively.
Boston's pitchers have utilized cutters 21.4% of the time this season — the highest on record — and sliders 31.3% of the time — the fourth-most for a team on record. Baltimore has also shown a preference for cutters (20.3% — second highest on record) and curveballs (18.3% — also second-highest on record).
Garrett Whitlock has halved his sinker usage (from 53.4% career to 23.6%) and introduced a cutter (12.6%) while leaning on his slider more frequently (35.7%, up from 23% last season).
Whitlock has an excellent slider (139 Stuff+), but all of his other pitches rate as below-average offerings in 2024, and there's no real movement in his pitch modeling profile (95 Stuff+, up from 89 last season, but down from 105 in 2022).
As a former reliever with a career-high of 78 innings, Whitlock is only suitable for about 18 hitters before his effectiveness falls off a cliff (career 1.093 OPS third time through the order).
I projected Baltimore as -130 first-half favorites behind Grayson and would bet their F5 moneyline to -120. My full-game projection (-120) requires a price target of at least -110.
Bet: Orioles F5 ML (-120 or better) | Orioles ML (-110 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Thursday, April 11
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- Baltimore Orioles F5 (-115, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -120)
- Houston Astros F5 (-125, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -143)
- Houston Astros (-122, Risk 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to -131)
- Oakland Athletics F5 (145, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to +141)
- Pittsburgh Pirates F5 (+125, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +118)
