USA vs Iran Predictions, Picks & Best Bets: How Our Experts are Betting the Massive Game
Anadolu Agency/Getty. Pictured: USA fans at the World Cup.
- Looking for valuable plays on the USA vs. Iran World Cup game?
- Our experts give out their best picks below.
- Read on for all of the wagers that you should be considering.
The United States Men's National Team has its biggest game in eight years as it faces Iran on Tuesday afternoon.
Before the fixture, see how the Action Network's team of soccer experts are breaking down the match, including the moneyline sides and prop wagers that you should be considering.
Anthony Dabbundo, BJ Cunningham and Johnathan Wright give their best bets on USA vs. Iran below.
USA vs. Iran Best Bets
USA Moneyline (+105)
BJ Cunningham: This is another match where the United States will be asked to break down a low block. Game theory is simple, as the United States need a win to go through and Iran needs a draw, so they are likely going to sit extremely deep.
The biggest difference between Iran facing England and Wales was the midfield. England had outstanding ball progressors, attackers and personnel with ability from the midfield to make line-breaking passes and create space.
USA are going to have to do something very similar because Iran are going to clog up the middle of the pitch and force the United States to push the ball out wide and beat them with crosses.
They've crossed the ball 46 times and only completed four of them. With that being said, there is not much talent in the Iran midfield and defense. Not a single one of their midfielders or defenders play in one of Europe’s top five leagues and that was very evident against England.
So, the United States should be able to dominate this match in the midfield with Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie and Yunus Musah.
I have the United States projected at -131, so I like the value on them at +100.
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Both Teams to Score (+105)
Anthony Dabbundo: The narrative surrounding this match is that both teams will play it super conservatively and it will be low scoring because of the stakes. While it is true that Iran defends deep in a pretty compact low block, it’s also true that both defenses are due for negative regression dating back to qualifying.
Iran also have multiple forwards that can run the channels and attack the USMNT in transition by pulling out the center backs. Both Sardar Azmoun and Mehdi Taremi are excellent at playing on the break from their respective clubs and Iran’s attack has produced 2.8 xG in two matches at this World Cup.
If you watched the USMNT’s first two matches, you see how game-state dependent they’ve been. The longer the United States' match stayed 0-0, the less incentive either side had to risk sending numbers forward and potentially losing the game. When they played Wales, though, the USMNT went up a goal and then struggled to deal with the pressure applied by Wales, a mediocre attacking side at best.
If there is a goal in the first half of this match by either side, it will force either Iran to come out and attack further, or the United States to become even more desperate to score. So while the market has pushed this total and this BTTS market down, I’m going against the narrative and backing both teams to score.
USA Over 1.5 Goals (+125)
Johnathan Wright: In their first two games in Qatar, the USA have scored just one goal and have accumulated only 1.42 xG in over 180 minutes of play. It's hard to see how they will score two or more based on those stats, but the Stars and Stripes will have a completely different tactical game plan against Iran.
The USA have to go for it. Anything less than a win and their return to the World Cup after eight years would end in the group stage.
Iran are averaging only 30% possession in their two matches in Group B play, so expect the Americans to have a majority of the ball for long periods. The only time we have seen the US control over 50% possession at the World Cup so far was in the first half against Wales. The half in which they scored their only goal of the tournament.
If the USA are able to take advantage of one of their opportunities, then the pressure switches to Iran to equalize, who need to either win or draw to advance. This will leave the game more open for the Yanks to bag their second.
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