If you've ever bet soccer and been confused when your bet didn't cash as you expected, you're not alone.
It's one of the most common mistakes new soccer bettors make — not navigating the difference between a two-way moneyline and a three-way moneyline.
Most sports use two-way moneylines because ties are impossible (MLB) or unlikely (NFL). But in soccer, draws happen about a quarter of the time, so it's offered as one of the three primary options — Team A wins, Team B wins, or it ends in a draw. And these three-way bets don't include extra time, if it's a tournament where the match will go past regulation.
Let's use the 2021 Champions League final as an example.
Check out these links first if you're unfamiliar with American odds or just want to learn more about betting on soccer.
Three-Way Moneyline
There are three possible outcomes of a soccer match after regulation — Team A wins, Team B wins, or it's tied.
That's why you see most soccer betting lines with those three options. It's the default option at most sportsbooks.
In the Champions League Final, Chelsea had just a 24% chance to win in regulation, according to oddsmakers.
| Result (After 90 mins) | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Man City wins | -106 | 49% |
| Chelsea wins | +300 | 24% |
| Draw | +250 | 27% |
Because Chelsea did win in regulation, anyone who took the Blues at +300 on the three-way moneyline cashed. But had they needed extra time to win, the bet would have lost and anyone who bet the draw at +250 would have won their bets.
Two-Way Moneyline
Chelsea at +300 was a juicy price — but again, the only way to cash was for the Blues to win in regulation. A win in extra time, the bet loses.
With a two-way moneyline, you have a little bit more safety, but you're not going to get as good a price.
There are two primary types of two-way moneylines.
Draw No Bet
Draw No Bet is just what it sounds like. If you bet a team and it wins, your bet wins. If it's a draw, your bet is refunded. If the team loses, your bet loses.
The cushion you get from the draw is baked into the price, of course. Man City was -275 on the Draw No Bet line, up from -106. Chelsea was +190, down from +300 on the three-way line.
The books are essentially just splitting the probability of a draw between the two teams, and adjusting the odds. Some books charge futures — DraftKings is holding about 8% of this wager, while it holds about 4.8% on a standard NFL point spread.
| Result | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Man City wins | -275 | 68% |
| Chelsea wins | +190 | 32% |
Double Chance
Double Chance means you’re betting on a specific team to win or draw, or either team to win. And again, it's all baked into the odds.
There are three possible outcomes for Double Chances:
| Result (After 90 mins) | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Man City or Draw | -230 | 69.7% |
| Chelsea or Draw | -150 | 60% |
| Man City or Chelsea wins | -200 | 66.7% |
This gives you a much better chance to cash your bet, but you're paying for it.
To Advance or to Lift the Trophy
In tournament situations, you can always bet a three-way moneyline or two-way moneyline where only the first 90 minutes of regulation time matter.
But there's another two-outcome option that may resonate with American sports fans more — betting a team to advance or to lift the trophy (if it's the title game).
In the Champions League final, Chelsea was +300 on the three-way line, but +165 to lift the trophy.
Getting the full, but also worse odds.
| Result | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Man City wins | -205 | 64% |
| Chelsea wins | +165 | 36% |
