NFL Player Props: Sunday Best Bets for Week 18
Our staff is betting six players on Sunday for its favorite NFL player props. Click on a pick below to navigate this post.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
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Lions vs. Vikings
David Montgomery
Anytime TD Scorer +138
By Sam Farley
The Lions may have nothing to play for here, but Dan Campbell has said that he'll be playing his starters so we're going to take David Montgomery to score.
The Vikings defense is underrated, despite being ranked eighth in defensive DVOA, and has only allowed 100.5 rushing yards per game, the ninth-best mark in the NFL. However, Montgomery has been a scoring machine this year. He missed a couple of games, which have probably made it easier to forget how dominant he's been.
Montgomery has scored in 10 of 13 games that he's played so when you can grab him to score at +138, it's a must-play.
Pick: David Montgomery Anytime TD Scorer +138
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Broncos vs. Raiders
Austin Hooper
Anytime TD Scorer +480
By Sam Farley
He might not have found the end zone this season, but Sunday is Austin Hooper's time.
In the two weeks without Michael Mayer, Hooper has had six targets and is now the de facto TE1 for the Raiders. That's great news with the Broncos in town. Denver has allowed a league-high 10 touchdowns to tight ends and despite reservations about Hooper's ability these days, I think the matchup is too good to not back him at +480 to score.
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Bears vs. Packers
Tucker Kraft
Over 3.5 Receptions (+124)
Green Bay should get all it can handle here, but Chicago's defense is much worse on the road and in the first half by DVOA, so that could set up the home team to get out early and turn this into a playoff celebration. The Packers are short on receiving options with all the injuries, but one player that's stepped up big of late is rookie TE Tucker Kraft.
Kraft has played nearly every snap over the past six weeks, and his production level is finally starting to reflect it. He's had at least four catches in each of the last four games, averaging 4.5 receptions for 57.3 yards per game over that span and clearing this line all four games. Chicago's defense ranks near the bottom of the league on third down, and Kraft is becoming one of Love's reliable security blankets. He's a good bet to go over this line again. It should probably be a reception higher, and we're getting it at plus money.
Bears vs. Packers
Khalil Herbert
Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-113) | 100+ Rushing Yards (+370)
Green Bay's defense is terrible at pretty much everything. There's been a lot of talk in Chicago about whether the Bears should keep Justin Fields around, but the truth is that this Bears renaissance has been about its defense and its run game far more than great play at QB, even if Fields has improved along the way. Chicago is at its best running the ball and letting the defense set up the Bears for success.
Khalil Herbert is questionable, so be sure to watch the injury report, but he appears to be in line for a big game if he does suit up. He ran 38 times for 236 yards the last two weeks, with at least 100 yards and a score in both games. This is his best stretch of the season, and he should close the season strong if he's cleared. It wouldn't be crazy to skip the traditional line and just play 100+ at +375 since there's a chance Herbert could be shut down early if the injury pops. Go for broke.
Pick: Khalil Herbert Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-113) & 100+ Rushing Yards (+370)
Seahawks vs. Cardinals
Trey McBride
Over 5.5 Receptions (+100)
McBride has been one of my favorite players to bet lately, and that’s not changing this weekend.
Since Kyler Murray took back over at QB for the Cardinals, McBride is first among all TE’s in target share (25.2%) and first in first-read share (30.1%). Without Marquise Brown this weekend, I think that trend continues. He’s cleared this prop in five straight games.
Pick: Trey McBride Over 5.5 Receptions (+100)
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Seahawks vs. Cardinals
James Conner
Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
James Conner continues to defy the narrative of an aging back in decline. He's now fifth in the league in yards per carry (4.9), sixth in explosive run rate (14.4%) and first in yards after contact per carry (3.8).
On Sunday, Conner gets to face one of the worst run defenses in the league. Seattle started the season with one of the more stout fronts in football through the first six weeks. Since then, the Seahawks' inability to stop the run has been costly to their playoff chances. Over the last six games, Seattle is 31st against the run, allowing 5.0 yards per carry.
Since Week 9, all but two of the lead backs on teams facing the Seahawks have cleared this number. Those two were Brian Robinson, who only got eight carries, and Tony Pollard. Otherwise, Seattle has been gashed on the ground, including performances of 138 yards by Keaton Mitchell, 122 yards from Najee Harris and 259 yards from Christian McCaffrey in their two meetings on only 35 total carries.
I'd bet this over up to 73.5 rushing yards.
Seahawks vs. Cardinals
James Conner
Anytime TD Scorer (-105)
We should definitely see plenty of scoring in this one, and James Conner looks like the game's most likely touchdown scorer to me.
Both defenses have been gashed by opposing RBs all season, each top three in touchdowns allowed to opposing RBs. Seattle has allowed at least one rushing touchdown in seven straight games — with 13 total allowed in that stretch — and at least one in all but three games.
Conner has quietly been terrific again when he's healthy enough to play, and he's found the endzone in four straight games with six touchdowns in that stretch. Unless Kyler Murray vultures our score, Conner should strike pay dirt again.
I'm looking at Cardinals +2.5, though I wish the line wasn't so short and it feels like the books have sniffed it out a bit, and I've considered the over and the Cardinals team total over 22.5. Arizona is averaging 22.7 points per game with Murray in the lineup and the Cardinals should score. But if Arizona's going to score and win, someone has to score, so let's just ride with Conner.
Pick: James Conner Anytime TD Scorer (-105)
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