We get our first real taste of the NFL preseason tonight with two games on the East Coast.
I'm excited to get going with football, even if it is the preseason. Tonight, we'll see the Lions face the Giants after a fight-filled week of joint practices. Then, in New England, Patriots fans will get their first look at Drake Maye in game action against the Panthers.
Here's how I'm looking to bet the games tonight, with my full QB previews and NFL picks.
Sean Koerner Makes NFL Picks Today
Lions vs Giants: Biggest Edge Is in the Second Half
With the Lions and Giants having two joint practices this week (that turned out to be pretty eventful with a handful of fights where both teams were fined $200,000), it’s unlikely we'll see any key players for either team. Coaches have favored joint practices over preseason action to get starting players their reps.
Both teams will be evaluating QB battles to see who will open up the season as the backup. Therefore, I think we will likely see around one half from all four active QBs tonight.
First Half: Nate Sudfeld (Lions) vs. Drew Lock (Giants)
Nate Sudfeld has been having a strong enough training camp that it appears he'll have the inside track to open up the season as Jared Goff’s backup unless Hendon Hooker can impress in his first NFL action this preseason (more on that later).
Sudfeld likely won’t have top pass catchers Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams or Sam LaPorta at his disposal, but the Lions will be evaluating their WR3 battle between Daurice Fountain, Antoine Green and Donovan Peoples-Jones. I’m anticipating Detroit to be a bit more pass-heavy since a lot of its key battles are in the passing game. We should see rookie two-way player Sione Vaki get a handful of touches at running back, but competition for the No. 3 RB is less urgent for Detroit.
Sudfeld has dropbacked 100 times over the last three preseasons and has been below average across the board with a 58% completion rate and 4.2% interception rate. He has been a true pocket passer with zero scrambles. I would consider him somewhere between a low-end second-stringer to high-end third-stringer for preseason purposes.
Drew Lock should draw the start for the Giants as the current favorite to backup Daniel Jones with the potential to put pressure on Jones to perform this season. If Jones struggles this season, we could see Lock replace him at some point.
Lock likely won’t have rookie phenom Malik Nabers at his disposal tonight, but he should have a trio of veteran WRs in Isaiah McKenzie, Isaiah Hodgins and Allen Robinson. All three of those players have been starters at one point in their careers and should have chemistry from training camp with Lock.
Lock has been incredible in the preseason action the past three seasons. He’s posted above-average numbers on 133 dropbacks with a 66.4% completion rate, 7.4% TD rate, 8.45 yards-per-attempt-rate and a QB rating of 104.3. He’s mostly a pocket passer but has the ability to scramble if needed, which is even more valuable in the preseason.
Edge: Giants. New York is favored by 2.5 points in the first half, which sounds about right. I'd hesitate to take that number because both teams will likely be playing their second unit for the first half. I'd say the most likely outcome for the first half is a tie or Giants winning by a field goal.
If we get word that Nabers will play a drive or two to start the game, I'd potentially lock in the Giants 1Q.
Second Half: Hendon Hooker (Lions) vs. Tommy DeVito (Giants)
Hendon Hooker will likely get the entire second half to himself and could even replace Nate Sudfeld in the second quarter. The Lions will want to give him as many reps as possible after redshirting his rookie season due to the ACL tear he suffered in his final collegiate season at Tennessee.
Hooker will be interesting to watch because he was considered a first-round talent before his ACL tear, but teams were unsure how he'd adjust to the NFL considering the Tennessee offense was very gimmicky. The concern was that it could take him a bit longer to adjust to NFL concepts.
The Lions' WR3 battle could carry into the second half, but Hooker will also potentially have veterans like Maurice Alexander and Tom Kennedy, who have performed fairly well in the preseason over the past few seasons. Hooker also has solid rushing upside, which I think he'll lean on at times and, as I always say, is much more valuable in the preseason.
Tommy DeVito was one of the more surprising stories of 2023 as the undrafted rookie led the Giants to a 3-3 record after Daniel Jones suffered his season-ending injury. For those of us preseason grinders, it wasn't too surprising since he actually played fairly well in the preseason last year with a 67% completion rate while averaging 7.1 yards per attempt, although his 3.1% interception rate was a bit unlucky considering he only had a 1.2% turnover rate (Pro Football Focus), which is very good. DeVito also scrambled on 10% of his dropbacks and he has the rushing upside to overcome what could be 3rd string talent around him in the 2nd half.
Edge: Even. I think this will be a fairly even second-half matchup, but we could see a total of 16.5 that would expose the key number of 17. I'll be very interested in locking in the over 16.5 for the second half if/when we have access to it. That’s a number that is typically reserved for the Hall of Fame game or a preseason game where we will see third- or even fourth-string-caliber QB play. I'd consider both Hooker and DeVito to be low-end No. 2 QBs, both with rushing upside, and the half they'll be playing in is more likely to put up 17+ points.
We also need to monitor the weather since we could see showers during this game. Waiting to potentially bet the second half will give us plenty of time to incorporate a more accurate weather forecast.
Lean: 2H Over
Panthers vs Patriots: Koerner's First-Quarter Bet
This is a matchup that will see both teams take a very different approach to tonight’s matchup.
The Panthers are planning on resting most of their starters, including Bryce Young. Even top 2024 draft picks like WR Xavier Leggette and RB Jonathan Brooks are expected to be held out since neither is healthy enough to play.
Backup QB Andy Dalton is also out with a quad injury, which means the Panthers will be starting undrafted free agent Jack Plummer tonight. I expect him to potentially play into the third quarter.
Head coach Dave Canales has been praising Plummer in practice and while he could surprise tonight with a solid performance, I’m chalking this up to coach speak. He'll be surrounded by second- and third-string talent and isn’t in a great position to succeed in his first NFL action.
Jake Luton was recently signed as a camp body, mainly due to his previous experience under Canales, but he's probably not up to speed on the playbook to the point of playing more than one quarter. I'd imagine he comes in late in the third quarter and finishes the game.
The Patriots, on the other hand, are expected to play their starters tonight. It’s unclear for how long, but I’m assuming it could be for most of, if not all of, the first quarter. New England also has four active QBs tonight in Jacoby Brissett, Drake Maye, Joe Milton and Bailey Zappe. I’m guessing each plays about one quarter apiece in the order I listed.
Edge: Patriots. New England has a massive edge in tonight’s matchup, which is why they're 6.5-point favorites.
Pick: Patriots -0.5 1Q +102 (DraftKings)
The Patriots will have the biggest edge in the first quarter with the QB matchup between Brissett and Plummer. More importantly, it’s Brissett and the rest of the first-team offense and the Patriots' first-team defense vs. Plummer and the Panthers' second-team offense. In situations like that, it only amplifies the edge of the team rolling with its starting unit.
So, while the first quarter is typically very low scoring and floating a -0.5 implies a decently sized edge, in this case, I think it’s entirely warranted.
Given the Pats are playing their starting offense, they'll likely want to be fairly aggressive and get an early lead. The Panthers offense is also less likely to have 1-2 lengthy drives that will put up points or bleed the clock, both of which we're trying to avoid. With that, I think the Pats will have time to get a couple of drives into Carolina territory and clear this number.
In-Game Strategy: I'll be curious to see how the market approaches this matchup live.
The Pats will maintain their edge in the second and third quarters, but I think they'll have a bigger edge once we get to the fourth quarter when it’s potentially Zappe vs. Luton. Zappe will be fighting for a roster spot and has flashed enough upside in his career that I think he should be able to lead one or two scoring drives late in the game.
I'll be looking to potentially bet on the Pats once we see this QB matchup on the field. As always, a lot can change during the game, and I will be in the Action Network Discord discussing the game and will post any live bets I make in the Action App.
