NFL Picks: Expert Predictions on Week 9 Spreads, Totals
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Sam Howell (No. 14).
NFL Picks, Predictions | Week 9
The team logos in the table below represent all four of the matchups that Chris Raybon is betting from Sunday's 1 p.m. ET slate of games.
Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate Raybon's NFL picks.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Vikings vs. Falcons
Backup quarterbacks making their first start of the year are 6-3 against the spread (ATS) as underdogs this season, and that trend is a good bet to continue as Jaren Hall takes over for the injured Kirk Cousins (Achilles). Taylor Heinicke is just as likely – or perhaps, more likely – to commit a disaster play as Hall, as his 6.3% Turnover-Worthy Play rate last season was first among 41 qualified quarterbacks.
The Vikings enter Week 9 ranked 15th in overall DVOA while the Falcons rank 25th, so Hall will have the better team surrounding him. That’s especially true with Atlanta missing their top wide receiver, Drake London (groin) and arguably their top defensive player in Grady Jarrett (ACL).
The Falcons are rightfully favored due to being at home, but it’s a stretch to expect them to win by more than a field goal, especially in what is expected to be a low-scoring game. In fact, per our Action Labs data, road 'dogs in games with a total of 38 or below are 88-54-3 (62%) ATS since 2009.
It’s also worth noting the Falcons are 6-14 ATS (40%) at home under head coach Arthur Smith, including 3-8 (27%) ATS as a home favorite.
Pick: Vikings +4 (-110)
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Buccaneers vs. Texans
The Texans have been the better team in this matchup this season, ranking 16th in overall DVOA compared to 22nd for the Bucs, and these two teams have been trending in opposite directions.
After starting 0-2 and getting outscored 56-29 in their first two games, the Texans are 3-2 and have outscored their opponents 119-72, with both of their losses coming by two points. The Bucs, meanwhile, started 3-1 with a +16 point differential but are 0-3 with a -23 point differential since.
The Bucs blitz at the fifth-highest rate (36.6%), which can be exploited by C.J. Stroud, who is second in yards per attempt (9.3) and fourth in passer rating (112.2) among 36 qualified quarterbacks when blitzed.
We'll keep it simple here and just bet the Texans' moneyline.
Pick: Texans ML (-150)
Commanders vs. Patriots
While much of the focus has been on Washington’s defense after trading Montez Sweat and Chase Young, a Patriots offense averaging just 14.8 points per game this season (31st) is in arguably worse shape.
The Patriots will be without starting wide receivers Kendrick Bourne (injured reserve, ACL) and DeVante Parker (concussion), with Bourne being the key loss after leading the team in receptions (37), receiving yards (406), and receiving touchdowns (four) through eight weeks. Meanwhile, New England's best offensive lineman, Trent Brown, missed all but one day of practice this week with an ankle injury and is listed as questionable.
Even in a tough environment, Sam Howell gives the Commanders more upside at quarterback than the Patriots have with Mac Jones. Among 31 qualified passers, Howell is 18th in Adjusted Yards per Attempt (6.6) while Jones is 29th (5.6) and 16th in passer rating (90.1) while Jones is 22nd (82.5).
Since starting his career 9-4 (69%) ATS, Jones is 7-18-1 (28%), including 3-12 (20%) since last Thanksgiving and 1-6 (14%) in his last seven home starts, according to our Action Labs data.
These is the exact kind of game when a bad offensive team struggles to cover when favored. Since 2006, home favorites averaging 18 points per game or less are 95-167-8 (36%), failing to cover by 3.0 points per game.
Pick: Commanders +3 (-120)
Rams vs. Packers
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Here's how much the Packers have scored in the first half of games this season, starting in Week 1: 10, 9, 0, 3, 3, 0, 3. Green Bay is the lowest-scoring first-half team in the league at 4.0 points per first half, including 2.0 points per first half at Lambeau Field.
The Rams are averaging 11.0 points per first half, but that will likely dip if Brett Rypien starts at quarterback for the injured Matthew Stafford (thumb).
Per our Action Labs data, Packers first-half unders are 5-1-1 this season, covering by 4.3 points per game
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