NFL Best Bets & Picks | Divisional Round (Saturday, January 20)
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NFL Best Bets & Picks | Divisional Round (Saturday, January 20)
There are only eight teams left and four games this weekend. Our experts have NFL best bets & picks for the Divisional Round for Texans-Ravens and Packers-49ers on sides and totals. Click on a pick below to navigate this post.
| Game | Time (ET) | NFL Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 8:15 p.m. | ||
| 8:15 p.m. | ||
| 8:15 p.m. | ||
| 4:30 p.m. | ||
| 4:30 p.m. | ||
| 4:30 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Packers vs. 49ers
By Stuckey
Green Bay has been awesome of late, but I think the love has gone a bit too far after one game. This is a team that also lost in December on the road to Tommy DeVito. It's still a defense that ranks in the bottom six in both overall and weighted DVOA. The rested 49ers at home still have a much better offense, defense and special teams.
I'm not a huge fan of laying these big numbers in the NFL, especially with Shanahan, who tends to get a bit conservative with leads in the second half of games. And this game will certainly be played at a very slow pace with both offenses operating at a snail's pace.
However, even if he does go that route and go with a much heavier run approach with a lead, that should work just fine against a Green Bay defense that ranked 22nd in Rush EPA.
Ultimately, I just don't see how the Packers will get enough stops to keep this close, while San Francisco's defense should, even if Love continues his recent ridiculous run.
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Packers vs. 49ers
This is the one — I'm all-in on the Packers this weekend. Maybe the Niners just come out and blow the doors off this Green Bay defense and that's that, but I smell one of those games where Green Bay plays well, hangs around and just keeps gaining confidence as the home fans watch in terror after a dominant season sits on the precipice. Trends love the Packers, and I see all sorts of potential matchup advantages.
Maybe the Packers cover through the back door, but I think they might just come through the front and win this thing. Underdogs of 7-to-11 points are 12-23 straight up in the Divisional Round the last two decades, giving bettors an awesome 52% ROI on the moneyline. Saturday is National Cheese Lover's Day! The Packers can win this.
But why stop there?
What happens if Green Bay wins? Now the Packers are in the NFC Championship Game having knocked out both of the top two seeds. That means either a game in Detroit, where the Packers already rolled the Lions on Thanksgiving or a trip to Tampa, where Green Bay might honestly be favored.
I'll love the Packers in either matchup, so I have to play Green Bay at +1000 to win the NFC. How often do we get by far the best of the four QBs left in the conference at 10-to-1? And if Green Bay can make the Super Bowl, then we have to at least nibble a +3000 ticket to win the whole thing. That's basically a Packers ML ticket once they get there, and we'd have easy options to hedge out and profit.
Remember the old story about giving a mouse a cookie, and then he wants a glass of milk and so on and so on? I think the Packers cover, and I think they can win this thing. And if they do that, they might not be done winning.
I don't just want a cookie. I want the whole freaking cheese wheel.
Packers vs. 49ers
If the entire country wasn’t aware of the quantum leap Jordan Love made midseason, it is after Sunday’s demolition of Dan Quinn’s defense in Dallas. The reality is that Green Bay has been an offensive juggernaut for half the season now. The Packers will now have to take their show back outdoors, but I see no reason why Green Bay can’t move the ball against a San Francisco defense that has a vulnerability against teams that can successfully throw the ball down the field.
Don’t let a few first-half Prescott interceptions trick you into believing that Joe Barry’s defense is anything better than a bottom-eight unit. Barry’s run-defense scheme has been consistently exposed when facing Kyle Shanahan's run offense, and the biggest difference between San Francisco and Dallas is that the 49ers have a very functioning and capable run offense.
While Dallas quickly became one-dimensional on Sunday, the 49ers have a fully healthy Christian McCaffrey and key starters have had two full weeks off. That’s a massive rest advantage for San Francisco given that the Packers defense had to play 89 snaps against Dallas on Sunday. You’ll probably hear that Green Bay had a relatively easy win, and I know most of the Cowboys success came in garbage time with the game long decided, but Dallas still kept Green Bay’s defense on the field and playing against the pass for most of the second half.
The Packers are the youngest team in the NFL and will be playing their fourth road game in five weeks. Each of the past four were must-wins at Carolina, Minnesota, home vs. Chicago and at Dallas.
The 49ers and Packers rank first and third in early down efficiency this season. Green Bay’s offensive line showed last week that it can stifle an elite pass rush. Since Week 7, when Matt LaFleur finally started to trust Love, the Packers quarterback is third in EPA + CPOE composite.
In that same time frame, here's where the 49ers rank defensively:
- Rush EPA: 28th
- Dropback Success Rate: 20th
- Dropback EPA: 17th
- Overall Success Rate: 22nd
The San Francisco defense enters this game quite overvalued and the Packers defense could run out of gas at any moment. As a result, this total sits too low below 51. Much like last week, I expect both offenses to have success. The 49ers will try to play ball control with the ground game, but this version of San Francisco is too explosive to play keep away from Green Bay.
Pick: Bet Over 50.5 (-110)
By Stuckey
Houston has started slow all season, with last week being a clear exception rather than the rule. It ranked 20th in first-quarter scoring (Baltimore fourth) compared to ninth in the fourth quarter.
Lastly, don't forget about the pretty substantial home-field advantage (with conditions) and superior special teams for Baltimore.
For what it's worth, Jackson is the most profitable quarterback in NFL history in the 1H. He has gone a ridiculous 50-25-2 (66.7%) ATS in the 1H, covering by a field goal per game on average. Meanwhile, Harbaugh is the most profitable coach in NFL history in the 1H with an ATS record of 148-108-3 (59%).
There's obviously some overlap there, but Harbaugh is still 98-78-6 (55.7%) if you remove Jackson, including 7-2 against the number in Tyler Huntley starts.
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By Simon Hunter
This spread is way too big. My guess is that books are protecting against teasers and moneyline parlays, maybe adding in some effect of the cold weather. I'm not sure why this number has gone back up to 9.5, but how do we not take those free two points of value?
C.J. Stroud isn’t like any other rookie QB we’ve seen before. He always makes the right decision and if there isn’t a play to be made, he doesn't force the issue. The guy thinks like a veteran and lives for the next down. So, we trust him and this Texans offense to keep this game close.
On the other side, let's talk about Lamar Jackson. I know it’s a small sample, but we’ve seen him struggle in his career in this spot. Look at what the trends say: On 12 or more days of rest, he’s 1-6 against the spread (ATS). Over the past three seasons, he's 6-16 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more points. He's 1-8 when laying 7.5 or more. His only cover as a big favorite was Week 1 this season at home against the Texans as a 9.5-point favorite. That was against a rookie head coach and a rookie QB in their debuts.
Now, a few are scared that the Texans are the biggest public 'dog of the week, getting close to 60% of tickets as of Friday afternoon. In the last 20 years in the playoffs, only four teams that were underdogs of a touchdown or more closed with 60%+ of tickets:
- 2014 Saints (+10) at Seahawks (23-15 loss)
- 2008 Giants (+12.5) vs. Patriots (17-14 win)
- 2008 Giants (+7) at Cowboys (21-17 win)
- 2008 Seahawks (+9) at Packers (42-20 loss)
Take this big number. Throw a little on the moneyline and let Jackson prove to us he can win and cover at home.
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The Ravens offense was rolling heading into week 18, and I expect that to continue now that we have an even healthier version of this unit in this spot against the Texans.
Baltimore averaged 34.6 points per game at home this season when Lamar Jackson started at quarterback, clearing this team total in every home game they played after September.
On the other side, Houston's defense was an average unit during the regular season but clearly struggled on the road. The Texans finished 4-4 on the road, facing only one playoff team in those eight games this season. In the latter half of the regular season, three of their four road trips resulted in poor performances against teams ranking outside the top 10 in offensive DVOA. The Texans surrendered 360 yards to the Colts, 357 yards to the Jets, and 380 yards to the Bengals.
Traveling to take on a Ravens offense led by a soon-to-be two-time MVP will be a much more difficult task. Baltimore is top five in both rush and pass DVOA offensively.
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