Steelers vs. Lions Odds & Betting Predictions - December 21, 2025

Topping off to a full unit on the luck under

Join Discord: https://discord.gg/NcyhmJVXPe

PIT’s defense is allowing the 8th highest explosive run% (5.9%) & has struggled vs Man/Gap concept runs with the 5th Highest Success Rate allowed. Gibbs has an elite 7.51 YPC on Man/Gap concept runs on the year. Over their L5 games, PIT has allowed the 5th highest adjusted yards before contact/attempt (3.04) & DET ranks 2nd in Adj YBC/ATT (2.77) on the season. DET is coming off a loss and needs to win (-7 point home favorites). Gibbs should see plenty of opportunities to clear his line…. Gibbs Longest Rush Hit Rates: • 18+ in 14/L16 at Home • 18+ in 15/L19 Wins • 18+ in 11/L11 Home Wins • 18+ in 5/5 Games following Loss • 18+ in 13/L13 at Home with 11+ Carries

This is my favorite spot of the week. I think the Lions smash Pittsburgh. Typically we look to bet the Steelers as underdogs, but this is just not a great "Rah Rah" spot for Mike Tomlin. All those Tomlin underdog trends are better when Pittsburgh is a short dog, better playing at home, better in division matchups or after a loss. This is none of those things. Instead, trends make this a great spot to back Detroit. Jared Goff is 37-15-1 ATS (71%) playing indoors with the Lions, and Detroit has now won 15 straight games coming off a loss since November 2022, going an incredible 14-1 ATS in those games by 11.2 PPG. Detroit is still an easy top-five team in my power ratings and the Lions effectively control their fate if they win out. Detroit is top five both running and passing the ball, and though the secondary is banged up and leaking, this might be the perfect opponent for the Lions. Pittsburgh throws more short passes than any team in the league — about three quarters of their passes! — and isn't built to challenge Detroit down the field. The Steelers prefer to play heavy and run the ball, but Detroit wants its linebackers on the field anyway. Detroit's defense ranks top five by DVOA at home this season, while Pittsburgh's defense ranks bottom eight on the road versus top eight at home. The Lions offense should find plenty to attack in this one. Detroit can run inside, especially with Pittsburgh playing on a short week with plenty of injuries to its defensive front, and the Lions should also own the middle of the field. The Steelers are exactly who we thought they were — good but not great on defense, with an offense nowhere nearly good enough, same story year after year. In the last calendar year alone, the Steelers have double-digit losses to the Seahawks, Packers, Chargers, and Bills this season and to the Eagles, Chiefs, and Ravens (twice) late last season, seven of those by 14 or more points. Pittsburgh is not good enough to hang against top teams, and Detroit is still that. All eight Lions wins this season are by at least a touchdown, and six of their eight wins are by 13+ points with an average margin of victory at 22.3 PPG. Detroit also ranks top five in pace since Dan Campbell took over calling plays, which means even more opportunity to be that much better. Detroit -6.5 (FanDuel) is my favorite play of the week, and we're taking the escalator to the top. Give me Lions -12.5 (+186) and -20.5 (+600) too, both at FanDuel, in case this one reminds us of just how much a gulf there is between the Steelers and a genuinely good opponent.

Jahmyr Gibbs over 15.5 rush att (+105 at BetMGM, +104 at DK) In six games with Dan Campbell calling the plays for Detroit, Gibbs has had a median of 14 carries per game, clearing this line just once. However, in those six games the Lions have run more than double the amount of plays trailing in the second half than with the lead. As 7-point favorites, that heavily favors a better game script for Gibbs to rack up more rushing attempts. When leading, the Lions run 36% more than when they trail, which represents the largest discrepancy in the NFL for teams with at least 50 plays in both scenarios. The Steelers are also slightly worse ranked against the run than the pass, so ideally you'd want to attack them on the ground when possible. The other sneaky angle here is in those six games where Gibbs had a median of 14 carries, they came against teams that allow around league average total plays allowed. The Steelers rank No. 1 in the NFL in total plays faced, meaning there should be more overall play volume, which can only benefit Gibbs clearing this line. I really like taking this at any plus odds

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/bLKzZArKeZb

@ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/yPjwhrUIeZb

Circa

NFL INT PICKS - W16

Tailing @nick_giffen

Strong Luck Under...only half unit now, hoping total creeps up more to add second half unit later

@Stuckey2 https://myaction.app/jBAh8QEwcZb