Jaguars vs. Steelers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 29, 2023

Tailing T Mack

Everyone is a Christian Kirk fan now huh

Projection: +0.4. For more, check out Fantasy Life.

Took the hook for half a unit after putting full unit on 2 (prolly bet it too early and should have waited; did not get the best of the number on this game).

Over in 5/7 games, with an explainable miss against the Chiefs (trailing most of the game) and a weird gamescript last week vs NO. You can run on PIT: 19th in DVOA, per FTN, compared to 7th vs the pass. And their struggles on offense/inability to sustain long drives lends to opponents running a ton of plays: 69 opp plays per game is second most, and 25.5 opp RB rush attempts is also second. Plus, the weather forecast looks eh.

Available at FanDuel. I'm a big fan of the Jags and have bet them plenty since the beginning of last year. This just seems a bit too low on Pittsburgh, given how they've played. Ignoring priors, Pittsburgh ranks 21st in my model's offensive power rankings despite playing without Diontae Johnson for most of the season. That's worse than Jacksonville, and the two defenses have actually produced pretty similar numbers thus far. So, to me, it's clear that Jacksonville is the better team. I just don't know if it's enough to justify being 2.5-point road favorites against a team that has truly played solid football this year. My model makes this game a toss-up, so I'll take the +128 on the Steelers.

As discussed with @SimonHunterNFL on Sunday episode of @TheFavoritesPodcast. Steelers as a home dog will always be an early play.