Falcons vs. Jets Odds & Betting Predictions - November 30, 2025

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Playing 92.5 from the show on Friday

B105

Waited for the 3 and it’s there now at fanatics and DK, may keep shifting that way but definitely grab the key number above 2.5 where you can: This one is all about the matchups. This is one of many windy games this weekend, and it should be extremely run-heavy by both teams' design. That explains the low total below 40, and it immediately puts the underdog in play. The Jets have a monster advantage on special teams. They have the best unit in the league by DVOA while the Falcons rank bottom five, and those little edges matter even more in windy conditions and a low-scoring game where a single kick could make the difference. And in a run-heavy game, this one sets up advantage Jets. New York's run defense is its one best strength, and it's even better against outside runs. Atlanta runs outside more than any team in the league and, despite its talent, has been relatively average running the ball. That looks like a push. Atlanta's defense grades out as the best unit on the field, but most of that positive is the pass defense. The run defense ranks bottom quarter of the league, and that's not the right matchup against a Jets offense that prefers to run first, run again, then run some more. The switch to TyRod Taylor is also significant here. The Falcons bring huge speedy pressure and the Jets have allowed plenty of pressure this season. Taylor will need to get the ball out quickly — something Justin Fields is never really able to do. Taylor is 23-12-3 ATS as an underdog (66%), so this is a good spot to back him. Since 2018, underdogs of four or less in games with a total below 42 are 134-105-7 ATS, covering 56% of the time. This game sets up perfectly to suit New York's biggest strengths — run the ball, stop the run, and win on the special teams margins. The Jets have been within one score in the fourth quarter in nine of 11 games, fighting hard all season. New York is the side here, though at +2.5 juiced towards Atlanta, there's a good chance you can wait and get Jets +3. I make New York the favorites, so give me the Jets. And wouldn't it just be so J-E-T-S to do all this and blow the draft pick anyway? The Jets have only two wins, with just the Titans "ahead" in the draft order, but with the Falcons, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Saints up next, New York might accidentally blow the tank. Over the last decade, 134 home underdogs of under three points have won their game outright; 82 of them won their game by at least seven points. That's 61% of those short home dogs that end up winning comfortably! Six of New York's seven wins since the start of last season are by seven or more, too. Skip the moneyline and get aggressive by playing an alt line Jets -6.5 to win by a touchdown at +288 (bet365).

Tailing @nick_giffen

Breece Hall Longest Rush under 16.5 yards (-120 B365, -124 CZR, -125 at DK and MGM) I don't think the market has caught onto a trend I've been eyeing all year, but hadn't build up enough of a sample size for yet, and that's the explosive rushing rate for Breece Hall with Justin Fields at QB compared to Tyrod Taylor at QB. With Fields at QB, Breece Hall had 20 of 132 rushing attempts from at least 16 yards away from the end zone go for 10+ yards. That number dips to just 1 out of 26 carries with Taylor under center. This is likely because Fields is a bigger rushing threat, opening up more running lanes for Hall, while Tyrod gets most of his rushes scrambling rather than through designed plays that could open up lanes for his RB. Yes, Hall's carries with Taylor at QB have come against strong defenses (Tampa Bay, Baltimore), but both of those teams allow higher explosive run rates than the Falcons have this year. The matchup is also problematic for Hall, who runs north of 70% of his runs -- even with Taylor at QB -- with zone concept blocking. Atlanta has been much better against zone concept runs, allowing a 9.7% lower success rate and a full 1.22 yards per carry less against these runs than against man or gap concept runs. Additionally, Hall runs the plurality of the time to the left (45.5%) which is the direction the Falcons defense has been best, allowing 4.04 ypc on non-QB scramble runs at least 16 yards from the end zone compared to 5.14 over the middle and 5.01 to the right, while allowing just 3 explosive runs on 95 attempts meeting that criteria on runs to the left. I'm showing this close to 65% under, although there is uncertainty with a smaller sample size with Tyrod Taylor at QB, but I'm fine if you want to take under 15.5 if that's all you have available to you.

The Jets have the LOWEST Pass Rate over Expectation this season (-5.9%) and its been crazy low their last 4 games (-10.6%). They are only a +2.5 point home underdog here against an ATL defense that has been more of a run funnel, as their defense ranks 24th in pass rate over expectation allowed over the last 6 games. Breece has 18+ RAs in both wins (18, 21) and in both “close/neutral” games (19, 22). I think NYJ could win this one but doubt its a blowout either way. Breece should get fed the rock here.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Projecting closer to 169.5 with around a 59% chance to stay under 178.5

Windy unders, neither team made postseason Overall: 314-202-4,61% (ROI:18%) Season:3-4-0,43% (ROI:-16%) Wind Factor Unders Overall: 407-251-8,62% (ROI:19%) Season:9-8-1,53% (ROI:1%)

#SundaySixPack

This one is all about the matchups. This is one of many windy games this weekend, and it should be extremely run-heavy by both teams' design. That explains the low total below 40, and it immediately puts the underdog in play. The Jets have a monster advantage on special teams. They have the best unit in the league by DVOA while the Falcons rank bottom five, and those little edges matter even more in windy conditions and a low-scoring game where a single kick could make the difference. And in a run-heavy game, this one sets up advantage Jets. New York's run defense is its one best strength, and it's even better against outside runs. Atlanta runs outside more than any team in the league and, despite its talent, has been relatively average running the ball. That looks like a push. Atlanta's defense grades out as the best unit on the field, but most of that positive is the pass defense. The run defense ranks bottom quarter of the league, and that's not the right matchup against a Jets offense that prefers to run first, run again, then run some more. The switch to TyRod Taylor is also significant here. The Falcons bring huge speedy pressure and the Jets have allowed plenty of pressure this season. Taylor will need to get the ball out quickly — something Justin Fields is never really able to do. Taylor is 23-12-3 ATS as an underdog (66%), so this is a good spot to back him. Since 2018, underdogs of four or less in games with a total below 42 are 134-105-7 ATS, covering 56% of the time. This game sets up perfectly to suit New York's biggest strengths — run the ball, stop the run, and win on the special teams margins. The Jets have been within one score in the fourth quarter in nine of 11 games, fighting hard all season. New York is the side here, though at +2.5 juiced towards Atlanta, there's a good chance you can wait and get Jets +3. I make New York the favorites, so give me the Jets. And wouldn't it just be so J-E-T-S to do all this and blow the draft pick anyway? The Jets have only two wins, with just the Titans "ahead" in the draft order, but with the Falcons, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Saints up next, New York might accidentally blow the tank. Over the last decade, 134 home underdogs of under three points have won their game outright; 82 of them won their game by at least seven points. That's 61% of those short home dogs that end up winning comfortably! Six of New York's seven wins since the start of last season are by seven or more, too. Skip the moneyline and get aggressive by playing an alt line Jets -6.5 to win by a touchdown at +288 (bet365).

NFL INT PICKS - W13

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