Thunder vs. Warriors Odds & Betting Predictions - November 28, 2024

Thunder at Warriors

3:00 am • ESPN

Oklahoma City Thunder

54-15

105

105 - 101

Golden State Warriors

33-35

101

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Thunder 54-15	+1.5	-4-118	o225-108	-182
Warriors 33-35	u229.5	+4-102	u225-110	+152

Thursday 3:00 a.m.

November 28, 2024

Chase CenterSan Francisco

GSW +4.5-110

S.Gilgeous-Alexander o6.5 Ast+120

D.Green u6.5 Ast-130

0.5u

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker for half a unit and I like this call with no Steph and against an elite defense.

D.Green u6.5 Ast-130

GSW +105 (1H)

I.Hartenstein o9.5 Rebs-140

0.71u

YOU KNOW THE DRILL 10+ Likes for another VIP play🔥 DATA BELOW👇🏽 Taking the bait here as the Warriors give up the most rpg to Centers per game (17.14) I can see the Thunder going small to match GS but I think Hartenstein still plays at least 25 minutes and covers his line

I.Hartenstein o13.5 Rebs+Ast-120

0.83u

S.Curry o23.5 Pts-108

1.08u

OKC -126

GSW +2.5-112

1.12u

S.Curry o23.5 Pts-112

1.12u

Sandy

J.Williams o11.5 Rebs+Ast-110

0.91u

GSW system playing high usage - target 2nd option

OKC -2.5-110

0.45u

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/thunder-vs-warriors-prediction-odds-parlay-pick-for-wednesday-november-27

I.Hartenstein o23.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-130

0.77u

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/thunder-vs-warriors-prediction-odds-parlay-pick-for-wednesday-november-27

I.Hartenstein o9.5 Rebs-120

0.83u

Tailing sharp

I.Hartenstein o9.5 Rebs-120

0.83u

J.Williams u2.5 3pt M-130

0.77u

This bet offers strong value from a +EV perspective, with DraftKings' line at -130 compared to tighter odds across other sportsbooks (-158 on FanDuel, -160 on Caesars, BetMGM, and Fliff, and -165 on Pinnacle). Pinnacle's odds, known for their sharp lines, suggest this under is a strong play. Recent Form: Jalen Williams has cleared this mark in 3 of his last 4 games. However, his overall trend does not strongly support consistent high-volume shooting from deep. Over his last 10 games, he's averaging only 5.3 three-point attempts per game. Volume Requirement: At his current efficiency, Williams would likely need 9-10 attempts to surpass 2.5 made threes tonight, a tall order against a disciplined defense. Opponent Defense: The Golden State Warriors are allowing the 4th fewest three-pointers per game this season. Their perimeter defense is effective at limiting both attempts and efficiency, creating a tough environment for sharpshooters. Game Context: The Warriors prioritize defending key offensive threats, and Williams may not see many uncontested opportunities.

I.Hartenstein o12.5 Rebs+Ast-117

I.Hartenstein o14.5 Rebs+750

0.25u

I.Hartenstein o9.5 Rebs-105

I.Hartenstein o9.5 Rebs+105

1.05u

Fliff

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NBA Public Betting

Warriors are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Warriors are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Warriors are 16-18 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Warriors' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 22 of Warriors' 34 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Warriors	31-37	15-19	16-18	20-24	11-13
Thunder	32-36	16-20	16-16	29-35	2-1

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Warriors	41-27	22-12	19-15	30-14	11-13
Thunder	35-33	17-19	18-14	31-33	3-0

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Warriors	33-35	N/A	N/A	25-19	8-16
Thunder	53-15	N/A	N/A	51-13	1-2

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Nov 26th	BKN	L 120-128	-13.5 L	O 224	BKN -948
Nov 24th	@SAS	L 94-104	-3.5 L	U 229.5	SAS -164
Nov 23rd	@NOP	W 112-108	-10.5 L	U 222	GSW -512
Nov 21st	ATL	W 120-97	-7 W	U 239.5	GSW -305
Nov 19th	@LAC	L 99-102	-5 L	U 226	LAC -205