Thunder vs. Nuggets Odds & Betting Predictions - October 25, 2024

4.53% ev

Collab with Adam

5.99% ev

History will repeat itself in Denver altitude

NBA System

Bov

4.97% ev

This is a points number that Jalen Williams exceeded in 53% of games last season. However, the more notable thing is how I expect him to perform without Josh Giddey. I wrote extensively about this in my @ActionNetworkHQ Player Props Forecast (https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-player-props-forecast-eyes-on-okc-bam-adebayo-and-anthony-davis) but the critical part is that Jalen Williams averaged 9.47 points more per 100 possessions without Giddey than in the minutes alongside of him. I expect Williams to see significant growth this season, and even though Denver’s defensive options are strong to throw at him, they will be much more focused on slowing down Shai instead. Grab Jalen Williams to exceed 18.5 points.

MGM

#Tailing @JoeDellera

Michael Porter Jr should see an expanded role without KCP this season. I fully expect MPJ to get additional looks whether they are plays being drawn up for him or as Jokic continues to improvise. MPJ averaged 17.6 ppg at home last season and that was despite playing at one of the league’s slowest Paces. Now, with the acquisition of Russell Westbrook along with the injection of Christian Braun into the starting lineup, I expect this Nuggets team to play with a bit more Pace to keep the pressure on given their athleticism. Couple this with both Jokic's and Westbrook's ability to kick to the open man and this is a good spot for MPJ. MPJ is a deadeye shooter and I expect him to excel even against a tough OKC defense.

5.28% ev