Rockets vs. Kings Odds & Betting Predictions - January 17, 2025

Houston allows the 2nd fewest points vs SF’s and Amen Thompson is a surging candidate for 6MOTY. Amen is the last player I’d want to be guarding me these days, and the other option is Dillion Brooks who is also one of the best defenders in the league. Historical stats also support this under but I’m on the road and left my notes at home

Textbook buy-low. Over the last six games, Brooks has either shot the ball poorly and/or in half the games, didn’t see full Q4 run with the Rockets winning by 20+ points. During this stretch, he’s also shooting 37.8% True Shooting (-15.4% from his average), which tells me both issues are temporary and bound to positively regress. In tonight’s match vs. SAC, Brooks should be up for more volume with news that Fred VanVleet is added to the injury report alongside Jabari Smith Jr. While Jalen + Sengun are the focal point, Brooks should still see more usage as the third options especially in a spot vs. a Kings defense that overhelps on drives, and allows most of their points coming from spot-up looks. Dillon Brooks is averaging 13.8 PPG-Per 36 without FVV + Jabari on 11.8 FGA. If you look at the data and filter the games playing 30+ minutes, taking 9-12 shots, he averages 13.0 PPG in the 11 games. And being a 40.6% shooter, if you remove the 3 games where he shot less than 30%, Brooks averages 15.9 PPG and scores 13+ points in 7 of 8 games. #PlayerProps

5.3% ev bet to +101

Sandy

6.06% ev bet to -131