Kings vs. Warriors Odds & Betting Predictions - January 6, 2025

Fliff

🔑 Kings ML +130 (FanDuel) 2u Sharp money all over Kings. They have won 3 straight and even without Fox this is great value.

3.4% ev

📊 Projection ~ 220.6

Fox is listed as doubtful, so he should be out here on the first leg of a B2B. DeRozan is yet to play a game w/o Fox but when Fox isn't on the floor, DeRozan see's a +6.57% USG increase, which is the largest jump on SAC (28.75% USG%). DeRozan also see's a +4.92 PTS/100 possessions increase when Fox isn't on the floor. In games DeRozan has a 22%+ USG (22% his AVG this season, which is with Fox), he's covered this line in 13/19 games - AVG 24.2 PTS and 18.1 FGA. In games DeRozan takes 16+ FGA, he's covered this line in 11/14 games. DeRozan should see a similar role in the offense that he had before Monk was introduced into the starting lineup - during those games, DeRozan covered this line in 9/14 games - AVG 17.9 FGA. GSW may seem like a bad MU as they rank #7 in DRTG, but are a favorable MU for DeRozan specifically. They allow the 6th most midrange FG and the 2nd highest FG% on those midrange shots. They also allow the 10th highest 2PT pullup FREQ%. In games DeRozan has taken 15+ FGA vs. a team T10 in midrange FG%, he's covered this line in 4/6. GSW also allow the 3rd highest ISO FREQ% - DeRozan leads SAC in ISO FREQ% and should see an uptick without Fox.

Tailing @JoeDellera