Pirates vs. Marlins Odds & Betting Predictions - March 28, 2025

Pirates at Marlins

11:10 pm • SportsNet PT

Pittsburgh Pirates

12-26

4 - 3

Miami Marlins

14-22

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C.Gillispie			8.65	0-3
M.Keller			4.40	1-4

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Pirates 12-26	-1.5	-1.5+120	o8-116	-144
Marlins 14-22	u7.5	+1.5-142	u8-104	+122

Friday 11:10 p.m.

March 28, 2025

loanDepot parkMiami

O.Cruz o0.5 HR+425

1.06u

Over 8-115

0.5u

MIA +130

0.25u

Bet to +125

B.Reynolds o0.5 HR+650

0.2u

O.Cruz o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-115

0.87u

O. Cruz ⬆️ 1.5 HRR (-115 @ MGM)(PIT Pirates) THE BAT X 📽️: 2.65 HRR As y'all know I'm so high on this kid this year. He hits the ball so hard and gets himself a nice matchup today. MIA is rolling out Connor Gillespie, who worked in a limited capacity as an RP last season for CLE. He was solid in Spring, but allowed a pair of homers, a double and a triple. His statcast numbers from (only 8 IP) last season are troubling. He was hit hard and barreled often with a low FB velo (92.2) without extension. Not a good recipe against a guy that is in the 99th percentile in hard hit rate and barrel rate. Gillipsie primarily throws FB, CH and CU to left-handed hitters. He likes to elevate the FB, which Cruz excels at hitting. He hit both the FB and CU well last season with a .598 and .643 SLG. He hit the changeup well enough with a .274 average as well. Just really like the matchup here for Cruz.

O.Cruz o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-125

0.8u

O.Cruz o0.5 HR+400

0.6u

And then my own little fun longshot

C.Gillispie o1.5 BB-110

0.91u

M.Keller o1.5 Earned Runs-120

PIT -142

M.Keller u5.5 Ks-138

0.72u

Have Keller projected at 4.92 strikeouts. Just not a big enough K guy to have his prop this high against a non-outlier opponent.

M.Keller u5.5 Ks-130

0.77u

4.06% ev pinny line at -166

O.Cruz o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-115

Oneil vs RHP in 2024: .271 BA, .344 OBP, .189 ISO Oneil vs RHP in ST: .241 BA, ,410 OBP, .311 ISO He mashes righties and I love this matchup for him. Gillispie had a great ST but got rocked in his last outing vs the Mets allowing 8 Hits, 6 ERs, & 2 HRs in 4.1 IP. He’s allowed a high barrel% throughout his short career and throws a lot of 4-seams/cutters to LHB, which Oneil will be able to take advantage of. Despite a mediocre Opening Day for Cruz, I think he bounces back in this matchup

Koerner's Home Run Prop for Friday Night
Sean Koerner•
Mar 28, 2025 UTC
MLB Home Run Props: +17225 Parlay Picks
Grant Neiffer•
Mar 28, 2025 UTC

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No props found

MLB Public Betting

Marlins are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Marlins are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Marlins are 7-7 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Marlins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 13 of Marlins' 22 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	18-18	11-11	7-7	1-2	16-16
Pirates	13-25	7-12	6-13	4-11	9-14

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Marlins	24-12	13-9	11-3	2-1	22-10
Pirates	16-20-2	10-8-1	6-12-1	6-9	10-11-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	14-22	10-12	4-10	3-0	11-21
Pirates	12-26	7-12	5-14	5-10	7-16

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Mar 27th	PIT	W 5-4	+1.5 W	O 6.5	MIA +127
Mar 25th	NYY	W 4-2	+1.5 W	U 8.5	MIA +180
Mar 23rd	@NYM	L 2-10	+1.5 L	O 8	NYM +154
Mar 22nd	@HOU	W 6-5	-	-	-
Mar 22nd	STL	L 2-8	-	-	-

Braxton Garrett
SP
Garrett is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Ryan Weathers
SP
Weathers is out with arm
Out
Eury Perez
SP
Perez is out with elbow
Out

Johan Oviedo
SP
Oviedo is questionable with elbow
Questionable
Jared Jones
SP
Jones is out with elbow
Out
Jared Triolo
2B
Triolo is questionable with back
Questionable
Spencer Horwitz
1B
Horwitz is questionable with wrist
Questionable

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Keller, P	86	6	4	1
LC.Ferguson, P	13	1	1	0
LR.Borucki, P	11	1	1	0
RD.Bednar, P	18	1	1	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1T.Pham, LF	0-5	1	0	0
2B.Reynolds, RF	0-5	0	0	0
3O.Cruz, CF	2-4	2	1	2
4J.Bart, C	1-2	1	0	0
5A.McCutchen, DH	1-3	0	0	1
6K.Hayes, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
7E.Rodriguez, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
8A.Frazier, 2B	1-3	0	0	1
9I.Kiner-Falefa, SS	1-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Gillispie, P	85	5	4	3
RT.Phillips, P	23	3	1	0
LA.Veneziano, P	18	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1X.Edwards, SS	2-4	0	0	0
2K.Stowers, LF	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Bride, DH	0-4	0	0	0
4M.Mervis, 1B	1-3	1	0	0
5O.Lopez, 2B	1-3	1	1	2
6G.Conine, RF	1-2	0	0	0
6D.Myers, PH	0-2	0	0	0
6D.Myers, RF	0-2	0	0	0
7L.Hicks, C	0-3	0	0	0
8D.Hill, CF	1-3	1	0	0
9G.Pauley, 3B	1-2	0	0	1
9E.Wagaman, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9E.Wagaman, 3B	0-1	0	0	0