Padres vs. Cardinals Odds & Betting Predictions - August 29, 2024
Padres at Cardinals
6:15 pm • BSMWStarting Pitchers
pitcher | team | era | w-l | |
---|---|---|---|---|
S.Gray | 3.84 | 13-9 | ||
M.King | 2.95 | 13-9 |
Padres at Cardinals Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Padres 4-3 | -1.5+157 | o7.5-112 | -105 | |
Cardinals 0-0 | +1.5-185 | u7.5-108 | -115 |
Thursday 6:15 p.m.
August 29, 2024Busch StadiumSt. Louis
Padres vs. Cardinals Expert Picks
Picks Office
75d ago
Last 30d: 82-114-3 (-39.0u)
Under 7.5-105
0.95u
Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice
Pitching was good for the whole season with Michael King and Sonny Gray, who had great performances. This is complemented by their whiff percentages of 29.3%, both showing that they are good at making swings and misses to try to avoid the possibilities of balls in play that could result in runs. Over this same span, their expected batting averages (xBA) of .224 and .215, respectively, suggest that hitters have difficulty squaring anything up, which has limited any serious offensive threats.
The hard-hit rates of King-29.8%-and Gray-29.2%-further support a defensive edge in that low percentage, usually equating to a lesser number of extra-base hits, thus limiting scoring opportunities. Both pitchers have a diverse arsenal that keeps hitters off balance, King with his sinker, slider, and changeup, and Gray looking to mix in a four-seam fastball with a slider and curveball. This helps them not only suppress runs from scoring but also helps them induce weak contact, proved by the low Barrel% (King at 5.6% and Gray at 4.4%).
Again, both teams have bullpens that are coming off recent effective outings.
The bullpen of the Padres is really deep, with a collective ERA of 2.42 over the last three games-going back to last night in St. Louis-with good arms like R. Suarez and T. Scott. On the other side, the St. Louis bullpen ranks a bit down in the pecking order but still can be relied upon, posting an ERA of 3.54 in that same span, anchored by right-handers R. Helsley and A Kittredge.
Both the Padres and Cardinals come in with WHIPs measured at 1.12 and 1.14, respectively—the low numbers of the bullpens both indicate solid capabilities in their bid to avoid baserunners, which translates into less late-game scoring.
The pair has also almost equally struggled offensively versus right-handed pitching, which attaches to the strength of the starting pitchers. The Cardinals, who have a very low OPS of .686 against righties, do not bode very well for the dominance of King. Similarly, it is only respectable opposition when looking at the .744 OPS that the Padres have against right-handers but is hardly considered face-on explosive, especially going against a highšky-level pitcher in Gray. Scoring is also projected to be by a low number, as recent results suggest—most recently, a game involving the Cardinals finishing in a 4-2 scoreline. The Cardinals, ranked 24th in runs per game, and the Padres, despite ranking 11th in the category, have both heavily trended towards the lower end of scoring in a number of recent games. It has also indicated that the swing of the Cardinals has merely allowed them a .230 batting average and .686 OPS, and they rank 25th in home runs, making it difficult for them to earn a number of runs. With such strong starting and bullpen pitching for both clubs, this game stays surely under the total of 7.5.
Firefighter Bets
75d ago
Last 30d: 60-82-0 (-26.0u)
M.Machado o1.5 Total Bases+105
1u
Lines at Lunch
75d ago
Last 30d: 42-35-0 (+5.9u)
SD -110
1.1u
Johnny
Charlie DiSturco
75d ago
Last 30d: 52-69-2 (+0.3u)
M.King o5.5 Ks+104
0.5u
Made adjustment to his fastball to over double his whiff rate in August on it. Gets a touch matchup but 6+ is not much to ask for King who is over in each of L7 and has 28.5%+ rate in Ks, chases and whiffs
Firefighter Bets
75d ago
Last 30d: 60-82-0 (-26.0u)
M.King o5.5 Ks-110
1u
Sandy Plashkes
75d ago
Last 30d: 117-118-0 (+3.0u)
Under 4 (F5)-114
1u
Brian Bitler
75d ago
Last 30d: 50-46-4 (+6.5u)
Under 7.5+100
3u
Sean Zerillo
75d ago
Last 30d: 54-76-3 (-8.6u)
Under 8-115
0.43u
Flat to -117
PRO Insights
Padres
SD Insights
- Featured InsightPadres right-handed hitters have struck out just 12% against LHP over the last two weeks -- second lowest in MLB. Cardinals RPs have a strikeout rate of just 15% vs right-handed batters over the last two weeks -- lowest in MLB.
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Padres vs. Cardinals Previews & Analysis
Padres vs. Cardinals Notes
Keys to the Game
Matchup Contrasts
Today's Starting Pitchers
Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Padres vs. Cardinals Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Cardinals are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Cardinals are 38-43 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Cardinals' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Cardinals' 81 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
Over/Under History
Last 5 Matchups
Cardinals vs. Padres Injury Updates
Cardinals Injuries
- Sonny GrayP
Gray is out with arm
Out
- Willson ContrerasC
Contreras is out with finger
Out
- Drew RomP
Rom is out with biceps
Out
Padres Injuries
- Mason McCoyIF
McCoy is out with back
Out
Padres vs. Cardinals Box Score
Padres Player Stats
ProjectedPITCHER | PC | IP | K | ER | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
RM.King, P | 103 | 4.1 | 3 | 0 | |
LY.Matsui, P | 17 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | |
RB.Hoeing, P | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
LA.Morejon, P | 20 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
HITTERS | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
---|---|---|---|---|
1L.Arraez, 1B | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2J.Profar, LF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3J.Cronenworth, 2B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4M.Machado, 3B | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
5D.Solano, DH | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
6J.Merrill, CF | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
7D.Peralta, RF | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
8K.Higashioka, C | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
9T.Wade, SS | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
9X.Bogaerts, PH | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
9M.McCoy, SS | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals Player Stats
ProjectedPITCHER | PC | IP | K | ER | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
RS.Gray, P | 90 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |
RR.Fernandez, P | 31 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
LM.Liberatore, P | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
RR.Helsley, P | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
HITTERS | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
---|---|---|---|---|
1M.Winn, SS | 2-5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2A.Burleson, LF | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
3N.Arenado, 3B | 0-5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
4L.Baker, DH | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
5B.Donovan, 2B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
6P.Goldschmidt, 1B | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
7L.Nootbaar, RF | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
8I.Herrera, C | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
9V.Scott, CF | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Padres vs. Cardinals Odds Comparison
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Padres at Cardinals Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
---|---|---|
Padres 4-3 | o3.5-130 | u3.5+100 |
Cardinals 0-0 | o3.5-115 | u3.5-115 |