Padres vs. Cardinals Odds & Betting Predictions - August 29, 2024

Padres at Cardinals

6:15 pm • BSMW
1 - 4
Starting Pitchers
pitcherteameraw-l
Sonny Gray logoS.GraySt. Louis Cardinals logo3.8413-9
Michael King logoM.KingSan Diego Padres logo2.9513-9

Padres at Cardinals Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Padres
4-3
-1.5+157
o7.5-112
-105
Cardinals
0-0
+1.5-185
u7.5-108
-115
location pinThursday 6:15 p.m.
August 29, 2024
Busch StadiumSt. Louis
Padres vs. Cardinals Expert Picks
Picks  Office
Picks Office
75d ago
Last 30d: 82-114-3 (-39.0u)
Under 7.5-105
0.95u
Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Pitching was good for the whole season with Michael King and Sonny Gray, who had great performances. This is complemented by their whiff percentages of 29.3%, both showing that they are good at making swings and misses to try to avoid the possibilities of balls in play that could result in runs. Over this same span, their expected batting averages (xBA) of .224 and .215, respectively, suggest that hitters have difficulty squaring anything up, which has limited any serious offensive threats. The hard-hit rates of King-29.8%-and Gray-29.2%-further support a defensive edge in that low percentage, usually equating to a lesser number of extra-base hits, thus limiting scoring opportunities. Both pitchers have a diverse arsenal that keeps hitters off balance, King with his sinker, slider, and changeup, and Gray looking to mix in a four-seam fastball with a slider and curveball. This helps them not only suppress runs from scoring but also helps them induce weak contact, proved by the low Barrel% (King at 5.6% and Gray at 4.4%). Again, both teams have bullpens that are coming off recent effective outings. The bullpen of the Padres is really deep, with a collective ERA of 2.42 over the last three games-going back to last night in St. Louis-with good arms like R. Suarez and T. Scott. On the other side, the St. Louis bullpen ranks a bit down in the pecking order but still can be relied upon, posting an ERA of 3.54 in that same span, anchored by right-handers R. Helsley and A Kittredge. Both the Padres and Cardinals come in with WHIPs measured at 1.12 and 1.14, respectively—the low numbers of the bullpens both indicate solid capabilities in their bid to avoid baserunners, which translates into less late-game scoring. The pair has also almost equally struggled offensively versus right-handed pitching, which attaches to the strength of the starting pitchers. The Cardinals, who have a very low OPS of .686 against righties, do not bode very well for the dominance of King. Similarly, it is only respectable opposition when looking at the .744 OPS that the Padres have against right-handers but is hardly considered face-on explosive, especially going against a highšky-level pitcher in Gray. Scoring is also projected to be by a low number, as recent results suggest—most recently, a game involving the Cardinals finishing in a 4-2 scoreline. The Cardinals, ranked 24th in runs per game, and the Padres, despite ranking 11th in the category, have both heavily trended towards the lower end of scoring in a number of recent games. It has also indicated that the swing of the Cardinals has merely allowed them a .230 batting average and .686 OPS, and they rank 25th in home runs, making it difficult for them to earn a number of runs. With such strong starting and bullpen pitching for both clubs, this game stays surely under the total of 7.5.
Firefighter Bets
Firefighter Bets
75d ago
Last 30d: 60-82-0 (-26.0u)
M.Machado o1.5 Total Bases+105
1u
Lines at Lunch
Lines at Lunch
75d ago
Last 30d: 42-35-0 (+5.9u)
SD -110
1.1u
Johnny
Charlie DiSturco
Charlie DiSturco
75d ago
Last 30d: 52-69-2 (+0.3u)
M.King o5.5 Ks+104
0.5u
Made adjustment to his fastball to over double his whiff rate in August on it. Gets a touch matchup but 6+ is not much to ask for King who is over in each of L7 and has 28.5%+ rate in Ks, chases and whiffs
Firefighter Bets
Firefighter Bets
75d ago
Last 30d: 60-82-0 (-26.0u)
M.King o5.5 Ks-110
1u
Sandy  Plashkes
Sandy Plashkes
75d ago
Last 30d: 117-118-0 (+3.0u)
Under 4 (F5)-114
1u
Brian Bitler
Brian Bitler
75d ago
Last 30d: 50-46-4 (+6.5u)
Under 7.5+100
3u
Sean Zerillo
Sean Zerillo
75d ago
Last 30d: 54-76-3 (-8.6u)
Under 8-115
0.43u
Flat to -117

PRO Insights

Padres logo

Padres

SD Insights
  • Padres logoPadres right-handed hitters have struck out just 12% against LHP over the last two weeks -- second lowest in MLB. Cardinals RPs have a strikeout rate of just 15% vs right-handed batters over the last two weeks -- lowest in MLB.
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Cardinals logo

Cardinals

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    Padres vs. Cardinals Previews & Analysis

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    Padres vs. Cardinals Notes

    Prop Odds Comparison

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    Line Movement Tracker

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    Padres vs. Cardinals Public Betting Percentages

    61%

    Bets%

    39%

    Money%

    Matchup History

    Against the Spread (ATS) History

    overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
    Cardinals
    80-8242-3938-4328-4951-33
    Padres
    82-7835-4547-3343-5737-19

    Over/Under History

    overallhome o/uaway o/ufavorite o/uunderdog o/u
    Cardinals
    74-83-537-42-237-41-339-3834-45-5
    Padres
    81-74-544-34-237-40-351-44-528-28

    Straight-Up (ML) History

    overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
    Cardinals
    83-7944-3739-4239-3843-41
    Padres
    93-6945-3547-3358-4231-25

    Last 5 Matchups

    dateopponentscorespreadover/undermoneyline
    Aug 28thSDW 4-3+1.5 WU 8STL +105
    Aug 27thSDL 5-7+1.5 LO 8SD +124
    Aug 26thSDL 4-7-O 9SD -120
    Aug 25th@MINW 3-2+1.5 WU 8.5STL +120
    Aug 24th@MINL 0-6+1.5 LU 7.5MIN +120

    Cardinals vs. Padres Injury Updates

    Cardinals Injuries

    • Sonny Gray
      P

      Gray is out with arm

      Out

    • Willson Contreras
      C

      Contreras is out with finger

      Out

    • Drew Rom
      P

      Rom is out with biceps

      Out

    Padres Injuries

    • Mason McCoy
      IF

      McCoy is out with back

      Out

    Padres vs. Cardinals Box Score
    Padres Player Stats
    Projected
    PITCHERPCIPKER
    Michael King logoRM.King, P1034.130
    Yuki Matsui logoLY.Matsui, P171.211
    Bryan Hoeing logoRB.Hoeing, P10100
    Adrian Morejon logoLA.Morejon, P20121
    HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
    Luis Arraez logo1L.Arraez, 1B0-4000
    Jurickson Profar logo2J.Profar, LF0-4000
    Jake Cronenworth logo3J.Cronenworth, 2B1-4000
    Manny Machado logo4M.Machado, 3B0-4000
    Donovan Solano logo5D.Solano, DH0-4000
    Jackson Merrill logo6J.Merrill, CF1-2111
    David Peralta logo7D.Peralta, RF0-2000
    Kyle Higashioka logo8K.Higashioka, C1-3000
    Tyler Wade logo9T.Wade, SS0-2000
    Xander Bogaerts logo9X.Bogaerts, PH0-1000
    Mason McCoy logo9M.McCoy, SS0-0000
    Cardinals Player Stats
    Projected
    PITCHERPCIPKER
    Sonny Gray logoRS.Gray, P90641
    Ryan Fernandez logoRR.Fernandez, P31110
    Matthew Liberatore logoLM.Liberatore, P10120
    Ryan Helsley logoRR.Helsley, P14100
    HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
    Masyn Winn logo1M.Winn, SS2-5111
    Alec Burleson logo2A.Burleson, LF1-4100
    Nolan Arenado logo3N.Arenado, 3B0-5100
    Luken Baker logo4L.Baker, DH0-2001
    Brendan Donovan logo5B.Donovan, 2B1-4000
    Paul Goldschmidt logo6P.Goldschmidt, 1B1-3001
    Lars Nootbaar logo7L.Nootbaar, RF1-4100
    Ivan Herrera logo8I.Herrera, C2-4001
    Victor Scott logo9V.Scott, CF2-4000

    Padres vs. Cardinals Odds Comparison

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    Padres at Cardinals Team Totals

    MatchupOverUnder
    Padres
    4-3
    o3.5-130
    u3.5+100
    Cardinals
    0-0
    o3.5-115
    u3.5-115