The last time Bowden Francis took the mound, he took a no-hitter into the ninth inning. He also piled up the strikeouts and he has the ideal matchup to do so again in Boston. Two more pitchers I will be targeting today are Michael King and David Peterson.
Let's dive into my three MLB player props and picks for Thursday, August 29.
Alex Hinton's MLB Player Props & Thursday Picks
- Michael King 1.5 Walks (-135, DraftKings)
- David Peterson Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+104, FanDuel)
- Bowden Francis Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100, DraftKings)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs, and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Padres vs Cardinals Player Props: Michael King's Command Struggles
In his first full season as a starter, Michael King has enjoyed a strong season with a 3.14 ERA, 3.47 xERA, and 174 strikeouts in 146 1/3 innings. Despite transitioning to a starter this season, King has gone consistently deep into starts. Of his last 15 starts, he has completed five innings in 14 of them and six innings in seven of them. That means is usually facing over 20 batters every start. While that does give him more opportunities to pile up the strikeouts, it also gives him more opportunities to issue walks as well.
King ranks in the 38rd percentile in walk rate and has issued 53 walks this season. He has walked two batters in 17 of 26 starts this season and more recently in four of his last five starts. That includes three walks each in his last two starts.
King will face the Cardinals today, who have been middle of the pack in walk rate this season. However, they have jumped to seventh over the last 15 days. Additionally, the majority of their lineup has not faced King with four total plate appearances combined. If the Cardinals' hitters take a patient approach his first time through the lineup, we may get an early cash if Kings struggles with his command.
Mets vs Diamondbacks Player Props: Ladder David Peterson?
The Arizona Diamondbacks are typically a difficult matchup for strikeouts as they rank 23rd in strikeout rate this season. However, they have climbed to 10th against left-handed pitchers over the last 15 days and the Mets starting pitchers have taken advantage. On Tuesday, Sean Manaea (a left-hander) struck out 11 in 6 2/3 innings, while Luis Severino struck out nine in 4 2/3 innings last night.
The Diamondbacks will get another left-hander with David Peterson this afternoon. Like Manaea and Severino, Peterson's line sits at 4.5 strikeouts today. It is a number that he has reached in seven of his past 12 starts. He also was hooked on four strikeouts in three of the misses.
Peterson has also worked five innings or more in 10 of his last 12 starts. His outs recorded line (16.5) projects him for 5 1/3 innings today and that would mean he could get this line with a strikeout per inning. If he joins Manaea and Severino with a more robust performance, you can back him for up to seven strikeouts at +480 on FanDuel.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Player Props: Ride Bowden Francis
Last season, King began his transition to becoming a starter with nine starts last season. Tonight will be the ninth start this season for Blue Jays right-hander Bowden Francis. As a starter, Francis has recorded six strikeouts in five of games this season and he finished with five in another.
More recently, Francis has hit this line with seven strikeouts in each of his past four starts. He has pitched five innings in each of those and seven innings in the last three. Working into the ninth inning gave him the opportunity to strike out 12 Angels last Saturday. The Angels present a great matchup for strikeouts and the Red Sox do as well. This season, Boston is ninth in strikeout rate against right-handed starting pitchers. Eight of Boston's nine projected starters today have a 22.1% strikeout rate or higher and they are not too familiar with seeing Francis, particularly for a divisional matchup.
Francis has dominated in August with a 1.32 ERA and just two earned runs allowed in his last three starts against the Angels and Cubs. Pitching at Fenway Park is always a challenge, but Francis held his own in two recent starts against Baltimore. Even with a little regression, I expect Francis to work five innings tonight and that will give him a chance at six strikeouts. I also like him getting to eight strikeouts at +400 on DraftKings
