Giants vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - July 4, 2024

Giants at Braves

11:20 pm • MLB Network

San Francisco Giants

45-37

4 - 2

Atlanta Braves

37-44

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C.Morton			4.19	8-10
L.Webb			3.47	13-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Giants 45-37	+1.5-190	o7.5-117	+110
Braves 37-44	-1.5+157	u7.5-105	-130

Thursday 11:20 p.m.

July 04, 2024

Truist ParkAtlanta

ATL -125

Under 8.5-130

Under 8-109

C.Morton u17.5 Outs-119

1.2u

Morton under in 8/15, with 3.97 pitches per PA (29th/118). I like the matchup here - the Giants have the fourth lowest chase rate over the L30, and Morton’s zone % of 40.7% is 107th of 147 pitchers with 50+ IP. Giants should have 5 lefties in the lineup (Morton’s walk rate and pitches per PA bump up vs lefties), and overall are an excellent curveball hitting team (2nd in wRAA per 100 pitches).

ATL -1.5+170

SF +105

3.15u

Under 8-110

0.5u

Bet to -116

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Featured Insight
The Braves have scored 5.4 runs per game at home since last season -- highest in MLB (122 games). The Giants have allowed 5.0 runs per game on the road since last season -- fifth highest in MLB (123 games).

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The Braves are 17-79 (.177) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .102.

The Braves are 23-14 (.622) after a loss this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .512.

The Giants are 4-37 (.098) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .055.

32% of Matt Chapman strikeouts are looking since the 2022 season -- eighth highest in MLB-- 93rd Percentile. 36% of Jesse Chavez strikeouts are looking since the 2022 season -- seventh highest among qualified RPs-- 96th Percentile.

Matt Chapman has struck out in 27% of PA's since the 2022 season -- eighth highest in MLB-- seventh Percentile. Chris Sale has a strikeout rate of 30% since the 2022 season -- fifth highest among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP-- 97th Percentile.

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (362/816) vs left-handed batters this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (79/126) against Logan Webb in two-strike counts this season -- 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% -- 98th Percentile.

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (574/1,417) this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% -- 100th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 63% (296/473) against Logan Webb since last season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 42% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Braves are 17-26 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Braves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 13 of Braves' 38 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	35-46	18-20	17-26	26-37	9-9
Giants	35-47	17-25	18-22	17-36	17-11

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Braves	32-44-5	13-22-3	19-22-2	26-34-3	6-10-2
Giants	37-42-3	17-25	20-17-3	17-35-1	19-7-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	37-44	22-16	15-28	33-30	4-14
Giants	45-37	25-17	20-20	30-23	14-14

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 3rd	SF	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 7.5	ATL -209
Jul 2nd	SF	L 3-5	-1.5 L	U 8	SF -198
Jun 30th	PIT	L 2-4	-1.5 L	U 9	PIT -198
Jun 29th	PIT	W 2-1	-1.5 L	U 7.5	ATL -142
Jun 28th	PIT	W 6-1	-1.5 W	U 9	ATL -218

Chris Sale
SP
Sale is out with ribs
Out
Joe Jimenez
RP
Jimenez is out with knee
Out
Austin Cox
RP
Cox is out with knee
Out
AJ Smith-Shawver
SP
Smith-Shawver is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Nacho Alvarez
SS
Alvarez is out with wrist
Out

Tom Murphy
C
Murphy is out with back
Out
Matt Chapman
3B
Chapman is out with hand
Out
Casey Schmitt
3B
Casey Schmitt has been scratched Saturday.
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Webb, P	104	7	6	2
RT.Rogers, P	9	1	1	0
RC.Doval, P	16	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Soler, DH	0-5	0	0	0
2L.Wade, 1B	2-3	1	0	0
3H.Ramos, CF	2-4	1	1	2
4P.Bailey, C	0-4	1	0	0
5M.Chapman, 3B	2-4	1	1	2
6M.Conforto, LF	0-1	0	0	0
7M.Yastrzemski, RF	0-1	0	0	0
7L.Matos, RF	0-2	0	0	0
8B.Wisely, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
9N.Ahmed, SS	0-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Morton, P	94	5.1	5	3
RG.Holmes, P	42	2.2	4	0
LA.Bummer, P	15	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Kelenic, CF	1-4	1	0
2O.Albies, 2B	2-4	1	0
3M.Ozuna, DH	1-4	0	0
4M.Olson, 1B	1-3	0	0
5A.Riley, 3B	1-3	0	1
6A.Duvall, RF	0-4	0	0
7S.Murphy, C	1-3	0	0
8F.Wall, LF	1-3	0	0
9Z.Short, SS	0-3	0	0